NEPatriots
8-8
23
TBD
New Era Field
30°F
6 mph
35
BUFBills
12-3
TBD
New Era Field
30°F
6 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Patriots
7
7
3
6
23
Bills
7
7
14
7
35
Spread
-8
Total
OVER
44
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
341
327
Total Plays
65
58
Yards / Play
5.2
5.6
EPA / Play
+0.01
+0.20
Passing Yards
234
237
Comp/Att
26/41(63%)
19/31(61%)
Yards / Pass
5.7
7.6
EPA / Pass
-0.04
+0.27
Rushing Yards
107
90
Rush Attempts
23
25
Yards / Rush
4.7
3.6
EPA / Rush
-0.03
-0.27
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
20
18
Passing 1st downs
13
10
Rushing 1st downs
6
8
Penalty 1st downs
1
--
3rd Down %
31%
58%
3rd Down Conversions
4
7
3rd Down Attempts
13
12
Red Zone %
50%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
4
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
4
2
Interceptions
3
1
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-8.09
-8.38
Sacks
1
2
Sack Yards
-9
-17
Sack EPA
-2.05
-4.06
Penalties
2
2
Penalty Yards
--
20
Penalty EPA
--
-2.08
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
BUFBillsFavored
Opening
-8.0
Current
-8.0
Model
-8.0
Win Probability
Market75.7%
Model75.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+171
Home nfelo
1,662
Away nfelo
1,535
Home Field
+35.1
Base HFA
+42.0
Divisional Adj
-18.9
Home Bye Adj
+12.1
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+9.2
Home QB Adjustment
-3.5
Away QB Adjustment
-12.7
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
197.4
Model Spread
-8.0
Quarterbacks
M. Jones
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
-12.7
J. Allen
Proj. Value
+5.1
Team Elo Adj
-3.5
Team Matchup Ranks
Patriots Offense vs Bills Defense
Total
Points / Game
16
4
Yards / Game
26
7
Passing Yards / Game
19
25
Rushing Yards / Game
24
6
EPA
EPA / Play
26
6
EPA / Pass
22
12
EPA / Rush
24
7
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
30
17
Interceptions / Game
17
4
Fumbles / Game
29
13
Turnover EPA / Game
22
27
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
27
6
4th Down Efficiency
28
22
RZ Efficiency
32
2
Bills Offense vs Patriots Defense
Total
Points / Game
3
11
Yards / Game
2
9
Passing Yards / Game
2
27
Rushing Yards / Game
8
7
EPA
EPA / Play
3
2
EPA / Pass
5
3
EPA / Rush
7
5
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
20
14
Interceptions / Game
26
3
Fumbles / Game
31
20
Turnover EPA / Game
2
32
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
1
20
4th Down Efficiency
16
2
RZ Efficiency
9
21
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Patriots
5-5
SU
4-6
ATS
4-6
O/U
Bills
8-2
SU
4-6
ATS
4-6
O/U