NEPatriots
13-4
18
TBD
Empower Field at Mile High
46°F
6 mph
20
DENBroncos
13-4
TBD
Empower Field at Mile High
46°F
6 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Patriots
6
3
3
6
18
Broncos
7
10
0
3
20
Spread
+3
Total
UNDER
45
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
336
244
Total Plays
78
65
Yards / Play
4.3
3.8
EPA / Play
-0.17
-0.21
Passing Yards
292
145
Comp/Att
27/57(47%)
17/32(53%)
Yards / Pass
5.1
4.5
EPA / Pass
-0.20
-0.08
Rushing Yards
44
99
Rush Attempts
17
30
Yards / Rush
2.6
3.3
EPA / Rush
-0.19
-0.44
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
20
12
Passing 1st downs
13
9
Rushing 1st downs
3
2
Penalty 1st downs
4
1
3rd Down %
13%
35%
3rd Down Conversions
2
6
3rd Down Attempts
15
17
Red Zone %
50%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
4
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-7.30
-5.34
Sacks
4
3
Sack Yards
-18
-31
Sack EPA
-6.25
-5.42
Penalties
7
7
Penalty Yards
53
51
Penalty EPA
-5.88
-7.94
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NEPatriotsFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-3.0
Model
-1.0
Win Probability
Market59.7%
Model51.8%
Spread Pick
Broncos+3.0
Expected Value
+8.7%
Cover Probability
53.5%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+34
Home nfelo
1,635
Away nfelo
1,655
Home Field
+79.0
Base HFA
+58.6
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+20.4
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-28.3
Home QB Adjustment
-31.6
Away QB Adjustment
-3.3
Market Regression
+12.7
Final Difference
-12.8
Model Spread
+1.0
Quarterbacks
T. Brady
Proj. Value
+2.8
Team Elo Adj
-3.3
P. Manning
Proj. Value
-2.5
Team Elo Adj
-31.6
Team Matchup Ranks
Patriots Offense vs Broncos Defense
Total
Points / Game
3
4
Yards / Game
9
2
Passing Yards / Game
5
12
Rushing Yards / Game
32
1
EPA
EPA / Play
1
1
EPA / Pass
4
1
EPA / Rush
6
2
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
30
12
Interceptions / Game
2
13
Fumbles / Game
2
7
Turnover EPA / Game
31
26
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
15
2
4th Down Efficiency
7
8
RZ Efficiency
4
17
Broncos Offense vs Patriots Defense
Total
Points / Game
18
8
Yards / Game
21
8
Passing Yards / Game
21
28
Rushing Yards / Game
17
10
EPA
EPA / Play
26
10
EPA / Pass
27
12
EPA / Rush
27
7
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
32
14
Interceptions / Game
30
24
Fumbles / Game
19
11
Turnover EPA / Game
10
7
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
28
16
4th Down Efficiency
22
12
RZ Efficiency
28
14
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Patriots
6-4
SU
4-5-1
ATS
6-4
O/U
Broncos
6-4
SU
3-6-1
ATS
4-5-1
O/U