NEPatriots
2-3
38
TBD
FirstEnergy Stadium
70°F
015
CLEBrowns
2-3
TBD
FirstEnergy Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Patriots
3
7
14
14
38
Browns
3
3
0
9
15
Spread
+2.5
Total
OVER
43
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
399
328
Total Plays
65
68
Yards / Play
6.1
4.8
EPA / Play
+0.19
-0.24
Passing Yards
301
258
Comp/Att
24/34(71%)
21/46(46%)
Yards / Pass
8.9
5.6
EPA / Pass
+0.25
-0.25
Rushing Yards
98
70
Rush Attempts
29
18
Yards / Rush
3.4
3.9
EPA / Rush
+0.07
-0.42
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
20
16
Passing 1st downs
14
12
Rushing 1st downs
3
2
Penalty 1st downs
3
2
3rd Down %
50%
27%
3rd Down Conversions
7
4
3rd Down Attempts
14
15
Red Zone %
60%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
3
1
Red Zone Attempts
5
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
3
Interceptions
0
2
Fumbles
2
1
Turnover EPA
+0.82
-13.89
Sacks
2
4
Sack Yards
-8
-8
Sack EPA
-5.95
-11.14
Penalties
12
7
Penalty Yards
92
63
Penalty EPA
-12.59
-10.69
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
CLEBrownsFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-2.5
Model
-2.5
Win Probability
Market56.1%
Model56.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+67
Home nfelo
1,522
Away nfelo
1,533
Home Field
+52.6
Base HFA
+39.0
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+13.6
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+25.5
Home QB Adjustment
-51.0
Away QB Adjustment
-76.5
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
42.6
Model Spread
-2.5
Quarterbacks
B. Zappe
Proj. Value
-2.5
Team Elo Adj
-76.5
Value
Ptile
J. Brissett
Proj. Value
-2.1
Team Elo Adj
-51.0
Team Matchup Ranks
Patriots Offense vs Browns Defense
Total
Points / Game
16
19
Yards / Game
26
12
Passing Yards / Game
19
16
Rushing Yards / Game
24
25
EPA
EPA / Play
26
23
EPA / Pass
22
11
EPA / Rush
24
28
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
30
12
Interceptions / Game
17
22
Fumbles / Game
29
14
Turnover EPA / Game
22
12
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
27
17
4th Down Efficiency
28
9
RZ Efficiency
32
15
Browns Offense vs Patriots Defense
Total
Points / Game
17
11
Yards / Game
15
9
Passing Yards / Game
14
27
Rushing Yards / Game
5
7
EPA
EPA / Play
15
2
EPA / Pass
20
3
EPA / Rush
4
5
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
5
14
Interceptions / Game
10
3
Fumbles / Game
11
20
Turnover EPA / Game
28
32
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
21
20
4th Down Efficiency
8
2
RZ Efficiency
20
21
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Patriots
3-7
SU
3-6-1
ATS
6-4
O/U
Browns
4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
5-5
O/U