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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. patriots @ chiefs week 4, 2020

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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NE logo
NEPatriots
2-1
10
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
73°F
14 mph
26
KCChiefs
3-0
KC logo
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
73°F
14 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Patriots
0
3
0
7
10
Chiefs
6
0
7
7
20

Spread

KC logo
-11.5

Total

UNDER
52.5

Game Statistics

General
Patriots logo
Chiefs logo
Total Yards
357
323
Total Plays
74
55
Yards / Play
4.8
5.9
EPA / Play
-0.19
+0.07
Passing Yards
172
229
Comp/Att
20/37(54%)
19/29(66%)
Yards / Pass
4.6
7.9
EPA / Pass
-0.51
+0.07
Rushing Yards
185
94
Rush Attempts
35
25
Yards / Rush
5.3
3.8
EPA / Rush
+0.10
+0.04
Downs & Conversions
Patriots logo
Chiefs logo
1st Downs
21
19
Passing 1st downs
12
12
Rushing 1st downs
8
5
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
40%
36%
3rd Down Conversions
6
4
3rd Down Attempts
15
11
Red Zone %
33%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
3
Negative Plays
Patriots logo
Chiefs logo
Turnovers
4
1
Interceptions
3
0
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-22.38
-4.37
Sacks
2
1
Sack Yards
-18
-7
Sack EPA
-7.33
-2.29
Penalties
4
4
Penalty Yards
43
38
Penalty EPA
-5.07
-3.42

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
KC logo
KCChiefsFavored
Opening
-11.0
Current
-11.5
Model
-10.0

Win Probability

Market82.6%
Model79.9%
Spread Pick
NE logo
Patriots+11.5
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+14.2%
Cover Probability
59.8%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+172
Home nfelo
1,680
Away nfelo
1,602
Home Field
+9.6
Base HFA
+6.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+2.2
Time Adj
+1.1
Net QB Adjustment
+85.3
Home QB Adjustment
+27.8
Away QB Adjustment
-57.5
Market Regression
+6.4
Final Difference
239.3
Model Spread
-10.0

Quarterbacks

B. Hoyer headshot

B. Hoyer

Proj. Value
-3.7
Team Elo Adj
-57.5
Value
Ptile
10/09
10.4
97
10/16
0.4
52
10/20
-6.1
11
09/10
-6.0
16
09/17
-7.7
9
09/21
2.7
72
10/01
-7.7
9
10/08
4.2
81
10/15
-7.6
9
11/10
-10.6
3
P. Mahomes headshot

P. Mahomes

Proj. Value
+1.3
Team Elo Adj
+27.8
Value
Ptile
12/08
2.6
69
12/15
4.4
81
12/22
7.2
91
12/29
-1.4
43
01/12
10.8
98
01/19
9.4
95
02/02
-0.2
51
09/10
3.5
70
09/20
6.3
85
09/28
17.5
100

Team Matchup Ranks

Patriots Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Patriots logo
Chiefs logo

Total

Points / Game
27
10
Yards / Game
26
15
Passing Yards / Game
28
17
Rushing Yards / Game
3
19

EPA

EPA / Play
18
23
EPA / Pass
28
12
EPA / Rush
4
31

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
6
27
Interceptions / Game
23
6
Fumbles / Game
5
20
Turnover EPA / Game
13
11

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
17
13
4th Down Efficiency
23
29
RZ Efficiency
24
32
Chiefs Offense vs Patriots Defense
Chiefs logo
Patriots logo

Total

Points / Game
6
8
Yards / Game
1
14
Passing Yards / Game
8
7
Rushing Yards / Game
16
26

EPA

EPA / Play
2
18
EPA / Pass
2
16
EPA / Rush
9
32

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
14
14
Interceptions / Game
5
1
Fumbles / Game
11
31
Turnover EPA / Game
29
16

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
3
15
4th Down Efficiency
11
17
RZ Efficiency
19
29

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

NE logo

Patriots

5-5
SU
3-6-1
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/24
4
W
L
U
12/01
-6
L
L
O
12/08
-7
L
L
U
12/15
21
W
W
O
12/21
7
W
P
O
12/29
-3
L
L
O
01/04
-7
L
L
U
09/13
10
W
W
U
09/20
-5
L
L
O
09/27
16
W
W
O
KC logo

Chiefs

10-0
SU
8-1-1
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/08
7
W
W
U
12/15
20
W
W
U
12/22
23
W
W
U
12/29
10
W
P
O
01/12
20
W
W
O
01/19
11
W
W
O
02/02
11
W
W
U
09/10
14
W
W
O
09/20
3
W
L
U
09/28
14
W
W
U