NEPatriots
2-1
10
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
73°F
14 mph
26
KCChiefs
3-0
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
73°F
14 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Patriots
0
3
0
7
10
Chiefs
6
0
7
7
20
Spread
-11.5
Total
UNDER
52.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
357
323
Total Plays
74
55
Yards / Play
4.8
5.9
EPA / Play
-0.19
+0.07
Passing Yards
172
229
Comp/Att
20/37(54%)
19/29(66%)
Yards / Pass
4.6
7.9
EPA / Pass
-0.51
+0.07
Rushing Yards
185
94
Rush Attempts
35
25
Yards / Rush
5.3
3.8
EPA / Rush
+0.10
+0.04
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
21
19
Passing 1st downs
12
12
Rushing 1st downs
8
5
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
40%
36%
3rd Down Conversions
6
4
3rd Down Attempts
15
11
Red Zone %
33%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
4
1
Interceptions
3
0
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-22.38
-4.37
Sacks
2
1
Sack Yards
-18
-7
Sack EPA
-7.33
-2.29
Penalties
4
4
Penalty Yards
43
38
Penalty EPA
-5.07
-3.42
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
KCChiefsFavored
Opening
-11.0
Current
-11.5
Model
-10.0
Win Probability
Market82.6%
Model79.8%
Spread Pick
Patriots+11.5
Expected Value
+14.2%
Cover Probability
59.8%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+170
Home nfelo
1,679
Away nfelo
1,604
Home Field
+9.6
Base HFA
+6.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+2.2
Time Adj
+1.1
Net QB Adjustment
+85.3
Home QB Adjustment
+27.8
Away QB Adjustment
-57.5
Market Regression
+6.3
Final Difference
238.7
Model Spread
-10.0
Quarterbacks
B. Hoyer
Proj. Value
-3.7
Team Elo Adj
-57.5
P. Mahomes
Proj. Value
+2.6
Team Elo Adj
+27.8
Team Matchup Ranks
Patriots Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Total
Points / Game
27
10
Yards / Game
26
15
Passing Yards / Game
28
17
Rushing Yards / Game
3
19
EPA
EPA / Play
18
23
EPA / Pass
28
12
EPA / Rush
4
31
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
6
27
Interceptions / Game
23
6
Fumbles / Game
5
20
Turnover EPA / Game
13
11
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
17
13
4th Down Efficiency
23
29
RZ Efficiency
24
32
Chiefs Offense vs Patriots Defense
Total
Points / Game
6
8
Yards / Game
1
14
Passing Yards / Game
8
7
Rushing Yards / Game
16
26
EPA
EPA / Play
2
18
EPA / Pass
2
16
EPA / Rush
9
32
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
14
14
Interceptions / Game
5
1
Fumbles / Game
11
31
Turnover EPA / Game
29
16
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
3
15
4th Down Efficiency
11
17
RZ Efficiency
19
29
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Patriots
5-5
SU
3-6-1
ATS
6-4
O/U
Chiefs
10-0
SU
8-1-1
ATS
4-6
O/U