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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. patriots @ dolphins week 2, 2025

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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NE logo
NEPatriots
0-1
33
TBD
Hard Rock Stadium
89°F
4 mph
27
MIADolphins
0-1
MIA logo
TBD
Hard Rock Stadium
89°F
4 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Patriots
12
3
8
10
33
Dolphins
0
14
6
1
21

Spread

NE logo
+2.5

Total

OVER
43.5

Game Statistics

General
Patriots logo
Dolphins logo
Total Yards
335
358
Total Plays
56
52
Yards / Play
6.0
6.9
EPA / Play
+0.26
+0.11
Passing Yards
211
297
Comp/Att
19/23(83%)
26/32(81%)
Yards / Pass
9.2
9.3
EPA / Pass
+0.65
+0.31
Rushing Yards
124
61
Rush Attempts
30
15
Yards / Rush
4.1
4.1
EPA / Rush
+0.11
-0.07
Downs & Conversions
Patriots logo
Dolphins logo
1st Downs
18
16
Passing 1st downs
9
15
Rushing 1st downs
8
1
Penalty 1st downs
1
--
3rd Down %
58%
40%
3rd Down Conversions
7
4
3rd Down Attempts
12
10
Red Zone %
75%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
3
1
Red Zone Attempts
4
2
Negative Plays
Patriots logo
Dolphins logo
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-2.87
Sacks
3
5
Sack Yards
-19
-18
Sack EPA
-4.51
-6.44
Penalties
12
10
Penalty Yards
75
65
Penalty EPA
-8.04
-6.97

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
MIA logo
MIADolphinsFavored
Opening
-1.5
Current
-2.5
Model
-2.5

Win Probability

Market56.1%
Model56.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+73
Home nfelo
1,459
Away nfelo
1,418
Home Field
+34.7
Base HFA
+38.6
Divisional Adj
-17.4
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+13.5
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-3.0
Home QB Adjustment
-4.4
Away QB Adjustment
-1.5
Market Regression
+20.3
Final Difference
42.6
Model Spread
-2.5

Quarterbacks

D. Maye headshot

D. Maye

Proj. Value
+2.2
Team Elo Adj
-1.5
Value
Ptile
10/27
-0.3
47
11/03
1.1
57
11/10
-1.1
41
11/17
3.5
73
11/24
-3.8
23
12/01
1.4
59
12/15
1.1
56
12/22
3.2
71
12/28
-5.0
16
09/07
-2.5
34
T. Tagovailoa headshot

T. Tagovailoa

Proj. Value
-1.3
Team Elo Adj
-4.4
Value
Ptile
10/27
3.0
69
11/03
6.3
86
11/11
-3.3
26
11/17
6.9
89
11/24
8.0
93
11/28
6.3
86
12/08
9.2
95
12/15
-5.1
15
12/22
2.6
67
09/07
-9.1
3

Team Matchup Ranks

Patriots Offense vs Dolphins Defense
Patriots logo
Dolphins logo

Total

Points / Game
5
21
Yards / Game
4
21
Passing Yards / Game
1
31
Rushing Yards / Game
13
24

EPA

EPA / Play
4
26
EPA / Pass
1
25
EPA / Rush
23
25

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
8
19
Interceptions / Game
7
19
Fumbles / Game
21
4
Turnover EPA / Game
21
16

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
7
13
4th Down Efficiency
1
29
RZ Efficiency
22
18
Dolphins Offense vs Patriots Defense
Dolphins logo
Patriots logo

Total

Points / Game
22
5
Yards / Game
25
7
Passing Yards / Game
31
19
Rushing Yards / Game
10
8

EPA

EPA / Play
18
9
EPA / Pass
17
11
EPA / Rush
11
18

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
16
7
Interceptions / Game
29
19
Fumbles / Game
6
12
Turnover EPA / Game
18
14

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
27
12
4th Down Efficiency
22
2
RZ Efficiency
15
32

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

NE logo

Patriots

2-8
SU
4-5-1
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/03
-3
L
P
U
11/10
16
W
W
U
11/17
-6
L
L
O
11/24
-19
L
L
O
12/01
-1
L
W
O
12/15
-13
L
L
O
12/22
-3
L
W
U
12/28
-33
L
L
O
01/05
7
W
W
O
09/07
-7
L
L
U
MIA logo

Dolphins

6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/11
8
W
W
U
11/17
15
W
W
O
11/24
19
W
W
O
11/28
-13
L
L
U
12/08
6
W
L
O
12/15
-8
L
L
U
12/22
12
W
W
O
12/29
17
W
W
U
01/05
-12
L
L
O
09/07
-25
L
L
U