NEPatriots
0-1
33
TBD
Hard Rock Stadium
89°F
4 mph
27
MIADolphins
0-1
TBD
Hard Rock Stadium
89°F
4 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Patriots
12
3
8
10
33
Dolphins
0
14
6
1
21
Spread
+2.5
Total
OVER
43.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
335
358
Total Plays
56
52
Yards / Play
6.0
6.9
EPA / Play
+0.26
+0.11
Passing Yards
211
297
Comp/Att
19/23(83%)
26/32(81%)
Yards / Pass
9.2
9.3
EPA / Pass
+0.65
+0.31
Rushing Yards
124
61
Rush Attempts
30
15
Yards / Rush
4.1
4.1
EPA / Rush
+0.11
-0.07
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
18
16
Passing 1st downs
9
15
Rushing 1st downs
8
1
Penalty 1st downs
1
--
3rd Down %
58%
40%
3rd Down Conversions
7
4
3rd Down Attempts
12
10
Red Zone %
75%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
3
1
Red Zone Attempts
4
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-2.87
Sacks
3
5
Sack Yards
-19
-18
Sack EPA
-4.51
-6.44
Penalties
12
10
Penalty Yards
75
65
Penalty EPA
-8.04
-6.97
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
MIADolphinsFavored
Opening
-1.5
Current
-2.5
Model
-2.5
Win Probability
Market56.1%
Model56.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+73
Home nfelo
1,459
Away nfelo
1,418
Home Field
+34.7
Base HFA
+38.6
Divisional Adj
-17.4
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+13.5
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-3.0
Home QB Adjustment
-4.4
Away QB Adjustment
-1.5
Market Regression
+20.3
Final Difference
42.6
Model Spread
-2.5
Quarterbacks
D. Maye
Proj. Value
+0.9
Team Elo Adj
-1.5
T. Tagovailoa
Proj. Value
-0.3
Team Elo Adj
-4.4
Team Matchup Ranks
Patriots Offense vs Dolphins Defense
Total
Points / Game
7
21
Yards / Game
9
23
Passing Yards / Game
1
28
Rushing Yards / Game
20
28
EPA
EPA / Play
6
27
EPA / Pass
1
29
EPA / Rush
28
22
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
14
19
Interceptions / Game
9
30
Fumbles / Game
26
4
Turnover EPA / Game
14
15
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
7
26
4th Down Efficiency
1
28
RZ Efficiency
17
5
Dolphins Offense vs Patriots Defense
Total
Points / Game
26
5
Yards / Game
24
8
Passing Yards / Game
28
27
Rushing Yards / Game
21
1
EPA
EPA / Play
16
8
EPA / Pass
19
14
EPA / Rush
17
10
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
8
6
Interceptions / Game
30
16
Fumbles / Game
16
16
Turnover EPA / Game
15
21
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
22
11
4th Down Efficiency
20
2
RZ Efficiency
21
31
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Patriots
2-8
SU
4-5-1
ATS
6-4
O/U
Dolphins
6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U