NEPatriots
3-8
15
TBD
Hard Rock Stadium
77°F
6 mph
34
MIADolphins
4-6
TBD
Hard Rock Stadium
77°F
6 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Patriots
0
0
0
9
9
Dolphins
0
24
7
3
34
Spread
-7.5
Total
OVER
45.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
271
373
Total Plays
64
66
Yards / Play
4.2
5.7
EPA / Play
-0.28
+0.04
Passing Yards
185
308
Comp/Att
22/39(56%)
29/40(73%)
Yards / Pass
4.7
7.7
EPA / Pass
-0.32
+0.33
Rushing Yards
86
65
Rush Attempts
21
24
Yards / Rush
4.1
2.7
EPA / Rush
+0.01
-0.54
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
14
23
Passing 1st downs
8
19
Rushing 1st downs
4
2
Penalty 1st downs
2
2
3rd Down %
21%
33%
3rd Down Conversions
3
4
3rd Down Attempts
14
12
Red Zone %
NaN%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
--
3
Red Zone Attempts
--
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-10.89
-10.22
Sacks
4
2
Sack Yards
-39
-9
Sack EPA
-11.12
-3.81
Penalties
10
3
Penalty Yards
75
17
Penalty EPA
-8.31
-4.71
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
MIADolphinsFavored
Opening
-7.0
Current
-7.5
Model
-7.5
Win Probability
Market74.4%
Model74.4%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+213
Home nfelo
1,534
Away nfelo
1,367
Home Field
+36.6
Base HFA
+40.8
Divisional Adj
-18.4
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+14.2
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+9.6
Home QB Adjustment
+24.4
Away QB Adjustment
+14.7
Market Regression
+14.3
Final Difference
185.3
Model Spread
-7.5
Quarterbacks
D. Maye
Proj. Value
-0.4
Team Elo Adj
+14.7
T. Tagovailoa
Proj. Value
+0.9
Team Elo Adj
+24.4
Team Matchup Ranks
Patriots Offense vs Dolphins Defense
Total
Points / Game
30
9
Yards / Game
31
6
Passing Yards / Game
22
7
Rushing Yards / Game
14
8
EPA
EPA / Play
28
11
EPA / Pass
27
12
EPA / Rush
25
12
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
1
16
Interceptions / Game
11
22
Fumbles / Game
29
19
Turnover EPA / Game
9
9
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
29
5
4th Down Efficiency
14
6
RZ Efficiency
30
5
Dolphins Offense vs Patriots Defense
Total
Points / Game
22
21
Yards / Game
18
21
Passing Yards / Game
17
1
Rushing Yards / Game
21
22
EPA
EPA / Play
21
26
EPA / Pass
13
30
EPA / Rush
31
18
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
7
6
Interceptions / Game
10
27
Fumbles / Game
22
30
Turnover EPA / Game
12
3
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
24
27
4th Down Efficiency
25
11
RZ Efficiency
16
26
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Patriots
2-8
SU
3-6-1
ATS
6-4
O/U
Dolphins
4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
4-6
O/U