NEPatriots
0-1
25
TBD
MetLife Stadium
72°F
13 mph
6
NYJJets
0-1
TBD
MetLife Stadium
72°F
13 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Patriots
10
3
9
3
25
Jets
0
3
0
3
6
Spread
-6
Total
UNDER
43
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
260
336
Total Plays
57
68
Yards / Play
4.6
4.9
EPA / Play
+0.02
-0.35
Passing Yards
159
184
Comp/Att
22/30(73%)
19/33(58%)
Yards / Pass
5.3
5.6
EPA / Pass
-0.15
-0.72
Rushing Yards
101
152
Rush Attempts
24
31
Yards / Rush
4.2
4.9
EPA / Rush
+0.05
+0.07
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
17
18
Passing 1st downs
9
6
Rushing 1st downs
6
9
Penalty 1st downs
2
3
3rd Down %
25%
38%
3rd Down Conversions
3
5
3rd Down Attempts
12
13
Red Zone %
33%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
1
--
Red Zone Attempts
3
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
4
Interceptions
0
4
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-15.54
Sacks
3
4
Sack Yards
-27
-26
Sack EPA
-6.36
-6.03
Penalties
6
8
Penalty Yards
54
77
Penalty EPA
-7.38
-9.34
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NEPatriotsFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-6.0
Model
-6.0
Win Probability
Market69.8%
Model69.8%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-121
Home nfelo
1,375
Away nfelo
1,519
Home Field
+24.2
Base HFA
+44.0
Divisional Adj
-19.9
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-1.2
Home QB Adjustment
-8.0
Away QB Adjustment
-6.9
Market Regression
-53.8
Final Difference
-145.5
Model Spread
+6.0
Quarterbacks
M. Jones
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
-6.9
Value
Ptile
Z. Wilson
Proj. Value
-3.7
Team Elo Adj
-8.0
Value
Ptile
Team Matchup Ranks
Patriots Offense vs Jets Defense
Total
Points / Game
7
32
Yards / Game
15
32
Passing Yards / Game
12
16
Rushing Yards / Game
8
29
EPA
EPA / Play
5
32
EPA / Pass
10
32
EPA / Rush
9
22
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
9
4
Interceptions / Game
17
30
Fumbles / Game
17
18
Turnover EPA / Game
6
4
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
7
27
4th Down Efficiency
1
26
RZ Efficiency
7
19
Jets Offense vs Patriots Defense
Total
Points / Game
28
3
Yards / Game
26
7
Passing Yards / Game
13
2
Rushing Yards / Game
25
24
EPA
EPA / Play
25
5
EPA / Pass
29
5
EPA / Rush
13
27
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
7
30
Interceptions / Game
29
2
Fumbles / Game
7
16
Turnover EPA / Game
9
28
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
27
9
4th Down Efficiency
23
16
RZ Efficiency
20
8
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Patriots
5-5
SU
4-6
ATS
2-7-1
O/U
Jets
2-8
SU
5-5
ATS
4-6
O/U