NEPatriots
0-2
15
TBD
MetLife Stadium
64°F
14 mph
10
NYJJets
1-1
TBD
MetLife Stadium
64°F
14 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Patriots
3
7
3
0
13
Jets
0
3
0
7
10
Spread
-2.5
Total
UNDER
35.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
358
171
Total Plays
69
61
Yards / Play
5.2
2.8
EPA / Play
-0.16
-0.31
Passing Yards
--
133
Comp/Att
15/29(52%)
18/36(50%)
Yards / Pass
--
3.7
EPA / Pass
+0.19
-0.42
Rushing Yards
157
38
Rush Attempts
40
22
Yards / Rush
3.9
1.7
EPA / Rush
-0.15
-0.33
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
17
12
Passing 1st downs
9
6
Rushing 1st downs
8
5
Penalty 1st downs
--
1
3rd Down %
42%
14%
3rd Down Conversions
8
2
3rd Down Attempts
19
14
Red Zone %
NaN%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
--
1
Red Zone Attempts
--
1
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
--
Sacks
--
3
Sack Yards
--
-24
Sack EPA
--
-4.72
Penalties
6
3
Penalty Yards
43
--
Penalty EPA
-6.28
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NEPatriotsFavored
Opening
-1.5
Current
-2.5
Model
-2.5
Win Probability
Market56.6%
Model56.6%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-82
Home nfelo
1,498
Away nfelo
1,518
Home Field
+23.6
Base HFA
+43.0
Divisional Adj
-19.4
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-85.2
Home QB Adjustment
-81.2
Away QB Adjustment
+4.0
Market Regression
-9.4
Final Difference
-46.1
Model Spread
+2.5
Quarterbacks
M. Jones
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
+4.0
Z. Wilson
Proj. Value
-3.7
Team Elo Adj
-81.2
Team Matchup Ranks
Patriots Offense vs Jets Defense
Total
Points / Game
31
10
Yards / Game
30
2
Passing Yards / Game
31
4
Rushing Yards / Game
25
25
EPA
EPA / Play
32
4
EPA / Pass
31
3
EPA / Rush
22
7
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
6
4
Interceptions / Game
30
5
Fumbles / Game
16
13
Turnover EPA / Game
4
16
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
31
12
4th Down Efficiency
32
5
RZ Efficiency
11
7
Jets Offense vs Patriots Defense
Total
Points / Game
29
14
Yards / Game
31
6
Passing Yards / Game
30
8
Rushing Yards / Game
22
3
EPA
EPA / Play
31
6
EPA / Pass
32
20
EPA / Rush
32
1
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
26
9
Interceptions / Game
22
23
Fumbles / Game
32
26
Turnover EPA / Game
3
6
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
32
7
4th Down Efficiency
8
20
RZ Efficiency
32
5
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Patriots
3-7
SU
2-8
ATS
5-5
O/U
Jets
2-8
SU
3-7
ATS
3-7
O/U