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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. patriots @ jets week 3, 2023

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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NE logo
NEPatriots
0-2
15
TBD
MetLife Stadium
64°F
14 mph
10
NYJJets
1-1
NYJ logo
TBD
MetLife Stadium
64°F
14 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Patriots
3
7
3
0
13
Jets
0
3
0
7
10

Spread

NE logo
-2.5

Total

UNDER
35.5

Game Statistics

General
Patriots logo
Jets logo
Total Yards
358
171
Total Plays
69
61
Yards / Play
5.2
2.8
EPA / Play
-0.16
-0.31
Passing Yards
--
133
Comp/Att
15/29(52%)
18/36(50%)
Yards / Pass
--
3.7
EPA / Pass
+0.19
-0.42
Rushing Yards
157
38
Rush Attempts
40
22
Yards / Rush
3.9
1.7
EPA / Rush
-0.15
-0.33
Downs & Conversions
Patriots logo
Jets logo
1st Downs
17
12
Passing 1st downs
9
6
Rushing 1st downs
8
5
Penalty 1st downs
--
1
3rd Down %
42%
14%
3rd Down Conversions
8
2
3rd Down Attempts
19
14
Red Zone %
NaN%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
--
1
Red Zone Attempts
--
1
Negative Plays
Patriots logo
Jets logo
Turnovers
0
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
--
Sacks
--
3
Sack Yards
--
-24
Sack EPA
--
-4.72
Penalties
6
3
Penalty Yards
43
--
Penalty EPA
-6.28
--

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
NE logo
NEPatriotsFavored
Opening
-1.5
Current
-2.5
Model
-2.5

Win Probability

Market56.6%
Model56.6%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-86
Home nfelo
1,491
Away nfelo
1,515
Home Field
+23.6
Base HFA
+43.0
Divisional Adj
-19.4
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-85.6
Home QB Adjustment
-81.6
Away QB Adjustment
+4.1
Market Regression
-8.6
Final Difference
-46.1
Model Spread
+2.5

Quarterbacks

M. Jones headshot

M. Jones

Proj. Value
+0.1
Team Elo Adj
+4.1
Value
Ptile
11/20
-2.7
30
11/24
5.2
85
12/01
0.7
57
12/12
-4.1
23
12/18
-7.9
7
12/24
-0.4
49
01/01
-2.4
33
01/08
-0.1
52
09/10
5.6
84
09/17
-1.0
44
Z. Wilson headshot

Z. Wilson

Proj. Value
-3.7
Team Elo Adj
-81.6
Value
Ptile
10/02
-3.2
27
10/09
-1.3
43
10/16
-6.0
13
10/23
-3.8
24
10/30
-3.0
28
11/06
1.5
63
11/20
-7.3
8
12/18
-5.0
18
12/22
-11.5
1
09/17
-7.8
9

Team Matchup Ranks

Patriots Offense vs Jets Defense
Patriots logo
Jets logo

Total

Points / Game
31
10
Yards / Game
30
2
Passing Yards / Game
31
4
Rushing Yards / Game
25
25

EPA

EPA / Play
32
4
EPA / Pass
31
3
EPA / Rush
22
7

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
6
4
Interceptions / Game
30
5
Fumbles / Game
16
13
Turnover EPA / Game
4
16

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
31
12
4th Down Efficiency
32
5
RZ Efficiency
11
7
Jets Offense vs Patriots Defense
Jets logo
Patriots logo

Total

Points / Game
29
14
Yards / Game
31
6
Passing Yards / Game
30
8
Rushing Yards / Game
22
3

EPA

EPA / Play
31
6
EPA / Pass
32
20
EPA / Rush
32
1

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
26
9
Interceptions / Game
22
23
Fumbles / Game
32
26
Turnover EPA / Game
3
6

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
32
7
4th Down Efficiency
8
20
RZ Efficiency
32
5

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

NE logo

Patriots

3-7
SU
2-8
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/20
7
W
W
U
11/24
-7
L
L
O
12/01
-14
L
L
U
12/12
14
W
W
U
12/18
-6
L
L
O
12/24
-4
L
L
U
01/01
2
W
L
O
01/08
-12
L
L
O
09/10
-5
L
L
O
09/17
-7
L
L
U
NYJ logo

Jets

2-8
SU
3-7
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/20
-7
L
L
U
11/27
21
W
W
O
12/04
-5
L
L
O
12/11
-8
L
W
U
12/18
-3
L
L
U
12/22
-16
L
L
U
01/01
-17
L
L
U
01/08
-5
L
L
U
09/11
6
W
W
U
09/17
-20
L
L
O