NEPatriots
12-2
20
TBD
MetLife Stadium
57°F
11 mph
26
NYJJets
9-5
TBD
MetLife Stadium
57°F
11 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
OT
Total
Patriots
0
3
4
7
0
14
Jets
3
7
7
3
6
26
Spread
+2.5
Total
OVER
45.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
284
428
Total Plays
55
69
Yards / Play
5.2
6.2
EPA / Play
+0.04
+0.08
Passing Yards
221
285
Comp/Att
22/31(71%)
26/41(63%)
Yards / Pass
7.1
7.0
EPA / Pass
+0.16
+0.10
Rushing Yards
63
143
Rush Attempts
22
27
Yards / Rush
2.9
5.3
EPA / Rush
-0.27
+0.02
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
16
24
Passing 1st downs
13
17
Rushing 1st downs
2
6
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
10%
38%
3rd Down Conversions
1
5
3rd Down Attempts
10
13
Red Zone %
50%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
2
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-5.60
-7.28
Sacks
2
1
Sack Yards
-10
-11
Sack EPA
-2.62
-7.28
Penalties
1
6
Penalty Yards
--
39
Penalty EPA
--
-3.66
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NEPatriotsFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-2.5
Model
-2.5
Win Probability
Market56.6%
Model56.6%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-79
Home nfelo
1,530
Away nfelo
1,664
Home Field
+32.4
Base HFA
+59.1
Divisional Adj
-26.6
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+22.4
Home QB Adjustment
+22.3
Away QB Adjustment
-0.1
Market Regression
+22.1
Final Difference
-46.1
Model Spread
+2.5
Quarterbacks
T. Brady
Proj. Value
+2.8
Team Elo Adj
-0.1
R. Fitzpatrick
Proj. Value
+0.4
Team Elo Adj
+22.3
Team Matchup Ranks
Patriots Offense vs Jets Defense
Total
Points / Game
3
7
Yards / Game
9
4
Passing Yards / Game
5
9
Rushing Yards / Game
32
2
EPA
EPA / Play
1
4
EPA / Pass
4
9
EPA / Rush
6
1
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
30
31
Interceptions / Game
2
5
Fumbles / Game
2
12
Turnover EPA / Game
31
23
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
15
3
4th Down Efficiency
7
21
RZ Efficiency
4
1
Jets Offense vs Patriots Defense
Total
Points / Game
10
8
Yards / Game
10
8
Passing Yards / Game
15
28
Rushing Yards / Game
10
10
EPA
EPA / Play
17
10
EPA / Pass
9
12
EPA / Rush
15
7
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
20
14
Interceptions / Game
22
24
Fumbles / Game
15
11
Turnover EPA / Game
24
7
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
11
16
4th Down Efficiency
25
12
RZ Efficiency
3
14
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Patriots
8-2
SU
4-4-2
ATS
6-4
O/U
Jets
6-4
SU
4-4-2
ATS
6-4
O/U