NEPatriots
1-4
17
TBD
Allegiant Stadium
70°F
021
OAKRaiders
2-3
TBD
Allegiant Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Patriots
0
3
7
7
17
Raiders
3
10
3
3
19
Spread
-3
Total
UNDER
41.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
259
348
Total Plays
56
65
Yards / Play
4.6
5.4
EPA / Play
-0.04
+0.01
Passing Yards
176
--
Comp/Att
24/33(73%)
20/32(63%)
Yards / Pass
5.3
--
EPA / Pass
-0.14
+0.31
Rushing Yards
83
84
Rush Attempts
19
33
Yards / Rush
4.4
2.5
EPA / Rush
+0.22
-0.33
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
17
19
Passing 1st downs
7
12
Rushing 1st downs
8
4
Penalty 1st downs
2
3
3rd Down %
50%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
6
8
3rd Down Attempts
12
16
Red Zone %
100%
17%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
2
6
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-5.19
-4.92
Sacks
4
--
Sack Yards
-24
--
Sack EPA
-6.43
--
Penalties
10
6
Penalty Yards
79
42
Penalty EPA
-8.99
-8.28
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
OAKRaidersFavored
Opening
N/A
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.3%
Model59.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+83
Home nfelo
1,490
Away nfelo
1,484
Home Field
+66.0
Base HFA
+43.2
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+15.1
Time Adj
+7.7
Net QB Adjustment
+9.9
Home QB Adjustment
-2.9
Away QB Adjustment
-12.8
Market Regression
+22.0
Final Difference
65.4
Model Spread
-3.0
Quarterbacks
M. Jones
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
-12.8
J. Garoppolo
Proj. Value
-0.8
Team Elo Adj
-2.9
Team Matchup Ranks
Patriots Offense vs Raiders Defense
Total
Points / Game
31
7
Yards / Game
30
14
Passing Yards / Game
31
27
Rushing Yards / Game
25
20
EPA
EPA / Play
32
5
EPA / Pass
31
9
EPA / Rush
22
12
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
6
20
Interceptions / Game
30
17
Fumbles / Game
16
21
Turnover EPA / Game
4
24
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
31
25
4th Down Efficiency
32
23
RZ Efficiency
11
27
Raiders Offense vs Patriots Defense
Total
Points / Game
23
14
Yards / Game
27
6
Passing Yards / Game
32
8
Rushing Yards / Game
30
3
EPA
EPA / Play
24
6
EPA / Pass
22
20
EPA / Rush
26
1
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
20
9
Interceptions / Game
28
23
Fumbles / Game
10
26
Turnover EPA / Game
13
6
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
24
7
4th Down Efficiency
6
20
RZ Efficiency
24
5
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Patriots
3-7
SU
2-8
ATS
4-6
O/U
Raiders
3-7
SU
4-5-1
ATS
3-7
O/U