NEPatriots
13-5
13
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Stadium
70°F
03
LARRams
15-3
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Patriots
0
3
0
10
13
Rams
0
0
3
0
3
Spread
-2
Total
UNDER
55.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
407
260
Total Plays
68
60
Yards / Play
6.0
4.3
EPA / Play
-0.04
-0.25
Passing Yards
253
198
Comp/Att
21/35(60%)
19/38(50%)
Yards / Pass
7.2
5.2
EPA / Pass
-0.08
-0.30
Rushing Yards
154
62
Rush Attempts
32
18
Yards / Rush
4.8
3.4
EPA / Rush
+0.01
-0.18
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
22
14
Passing 1st downs
12
11
Rushing 1st downs
6
2
Penalty 1st downs
4
1
3rd Down %
25%
23%
3rd Down Conversions
3
3
3rd Down Attempts
12
13
Red Zone %
100%
NaN%
Red Zone Conversions
1
--
Red Zone Attempts
1
--
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-4.35
-3.64
Sacks
1
4
Sack Yards
-9
-31
Sack EPA
-1.48
-6.28
Penalties
3
9
Penalty Yards
20
65
Penalty EPA
-4.19
-6.91
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NEPatriotsFavored
Opening
-2.0
Current
-2.0
Model
-1.0
Win Probability
Market54.7%
Model52.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+7
Home nfelo
1,660
Away nfelo
1,685
Home Field
+31.1
Base HFA
--
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+31.1
Net QB Adjustment
+0.4
Home QB Adjustment
+2.7
Away QB Adjustment
+2.4
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-17.5
Model Spread
+1.0
Quarterbacks
T. Brady
Proj. Value
+2.8
Team Elo Adj
+2.4
J. Goff
Proj. Value
+2.5
Team Elo Adj
+2.7
Team Matchup Ranks
Patriots Offense vs Rams Defense
Total
Points / Game
4
18
Yards / Game
4
20
Passing Yards / Game
25
15
Rushing Yards / Game
5
17
EPA
EPA / Play
4
17
EPA / Pass
7
10
EPA / Rush
6
19
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
4
26
Interceptions / Game
12
5
Fumbles / Game
8
6
Turnover EPA / Game
27
30
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
9
6
4th Down Efficiency
19
21
RZ Efficiency
10
15
Rams Offense vs Patriots Defense
Total
Points / Game
2
6
Yards / Game
3
15
Passing Yards / Game
9
9
Rushing Yards / Game
3
7
EPA
EPA / Play
3
7
EPA / Pass
5
5
EPA / Rush
3
13
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
13
32
Interceptions / Game
12
5
Fumbles / Game
6
14
Turnover EPA / Game
28
20
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
8
15
4th Down Efficiency
19
4
RZ Efficiency
19
24
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Patriots
7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
3-7
O/U
Rams
7-3
SU
5-4-1
ATS
6-4
O/U