NEPatriots
1-1
30
TBD
M&T Bank Stadium
67°F
5 mph
31
BALRavens
1-1
TBD
M&T Bank Stadium
67°F
5 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Patriots
13
7
7
3
30
Ravens
0
14
7
10
31
Spread
+3
Total
OVER
48.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
396
503
Total Plays
77
65
Yards / Play
5.1
7.7
EPA / Play
+0.26
+0.28
Passing Yards
319
--
Comp/Att
28/41(68%)
28/39(72%)
Yards / Pass
7.8
--
EPA / Pass
+0.45
+0.39
Rushing Yards
77
121
Rush Attempts
34
26
Yards / Rush
2.3
4.7
EPA / Rush
-0.05
-0.09
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
33
28
Passing 1st downs
19
17
Rushing 1st downs
6
6
Penalty 1st downs
8
5
3rd Down %
47%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
7
4
3rd Down Attempts
15
8
Red Zone %
60%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
3
2
Red Zone Attempts
5
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-6.42
Sacks
2
--
Sack Yards
-16
--
Sack EPA
-2.82
--
Penalties
10
14
Penalty Yards
83
135
Penalty EPA
-10.48
-11.27
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
BALRavensFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-2.0
Win Probability
Market59.3%
Model54.0%
Spread Pick
Patriots+3.0
Expected Value
+6.4%
Cover Probability
51.8%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-6
Home nfelo
1,604
Away nfelo
1,668
Home Field
+62.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-4.6
Home QB Adjustment
+3.6
Away QB Adjustment
+8.2
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
27.7
Model Spread
-2.0
Quarterbacks
T. Brady
Proj. Value
+2.8
Team Elo Adj
+8.2
J. Flacco
Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
+3.6
Team Matchup Ranks
Patriots Offense vs Ravens Defense
Total
Points / Game
1
12
Yards / Game
1
23
Passing Yards / Game
9
25
Rushing Yards / Game
7
22
EPA
EPA / Play
1
16
EPA / Pass
1
14
EPA / Rush
3
14
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
16
19
Interceptions / Game
5
13
Fumbles / Game
8
11
Turnover EPA / Game
26
21
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
1
11
4th Down Efficiency
5
13
RZ Efficiency
1
1
Ravens Offense vs Patriots Defense
Total
Points / Game
9
10
Yards / Game
11
26
Passing Yards / Game
17
31
Rushing Yards / Game
11
8
EPA
EPA / Play
10
17
EPA / Pass
13
19
EPA / Rush
17
4
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
18
30
Interceptions / Game
4
6
Fumbles / Game
12
2
Turnover EPA / Game
27
31
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
14
20
4th Down Efficiency
26
13
RZ Efficiency
6
23
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Patriots
8-2
SU
4-6
ATS
6-4
O/U
Ravens
7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
4-6
O/U