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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. patriots @ ravens week 3, 2012

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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    Win total projections and results

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NE logo
NEPatriots
1-1
30
TBD
M&T Bank Stadium
67°F
5 mph
31
BALRavens
1-1
BAL logo
TBD
M&T Bank Stadium
67°F
5 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Patriots
13
7
7
3
30
Ravens
0
14
7
10
31

Spread

NE logo
+3

Total

OVER
48.5

Game Statistics

General
Patriots logo
Ravens logo
Total Yards
396
503
Total Plays
77
65
Yards / Play
5.1
7.7
EPA / Play
+0.26
+0.28
Passing Yards
319
--
Comp/Att
28/41(68%)
28/39(72%)
Yards / Pass
7.8
--
EPA / Pass
+0.45
+0.39
Rushing Yards
77
121
Rush Attempts
34
26
Yards / Rush
2.3
4.7
EPA / Rush
-0.05
-0.09
Downs & Conversions
Patriots logo
Ravens logo
1st Downs
33
28
Passing 1st downs
19
17
Rushing 1st downs
6
6
Penalty 1st downs
8
5
3rd Down %
47%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
7
4
3rd Down Attempts
15
8
Red Zone %
60%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
3
2
Red Zone Attempts
5
3
Negative Plays
Patriots logo
Ravens logo
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-6.42
Sacks
2
--
Sack Yards
-16
--
Sack EPA
-2.82
--
Penalties
10
14
Penalty Yards
83
135
Penalty EPA
-10.48
-11.27

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
BAL logo
BALRavensFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-2.0

Win Probability

Market59.3%
Model53.9%
Spread Pick
NE logo
Patriots+3.0
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+6.4%
Cover Probability
51.8%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-7
Home nfelo
1,603
Away nfelo
1,668
Home Field
+62.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-4.6
Home QB Adjustment
+3.6
Away QB Adjustment
+8.2
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
27.1
Model Spread
-2.0

Quarterbacks

T. Brady headshot

T. Brady

Proj. Value
+2.8
Team Elo Adj
+8.2
Value
Ptile
12/04
6.0
86
12/11
5.6
84
12/18
6.6
89
12/24
4.5
79
01/01
2.9
72
01/14
14.3
99
01/22
-0.3
50
02/05
1.9
65
09/09
4.6
80
09/16
-1.1
41
J. Flacco headshot

J. Flacco

Proj. Value
-0.8
Team Elo Adj
+3.6
Value
Ptile
11/24
0.9
59
12/04
-4.1
24
12/11
0.2
54
12/18
-3.0
31
12/24
-1.1
43
01/01
0.8
58
01/15
-3.1
31
01/22
2.6
70
09/10
4.2
76
09/16
-2.0
36

Team Matchup Ranks

Patriots Offense vs Ravens Defense
Patriots logo
Ravens logo

Total

Points / Game
1
12
Yards / Game
1
23
Passing Yards / Game
9
25
Rushing Yards / Game
7
22

EPA

EPA / Play
1
16
EPA / Pass
1
14
EPA / Rush
3
14

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
16
19
Interceptions / Game
5
13
Fumbles / Game
8
11
Turnover EPA / Game
26
21

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
1
11
4th Down Efficiency
5
13
RZ Efficiency
1
1
Ravens Offense vs Patriots Defense
Ravens logo
Patriots logo

Total

Points / Game
9
10
Yards / Game
11
26
Passing Yards / Game
17
31
Rushing Yards / Game
11
8

EPA

EPA / Play
10
17
EPA / Pass
13
19
EPA / Rush
17
4

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
18
30
Interceptions / Game
4
6
Fumbles / Game
12
2
Turnover EPA / Game
27
31

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
14
20
4th Down Efficiency
26
13
RZ Efficiency
6
23

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

NE logo

Patriots

8-2
SU
4-6
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/04
7
W
L
O
12/11
7
W
L
O
12/18
18
W
W
O
12/24
3
W
L
O
01/01
28
W
W
O
01/14
35
W
W
O
01/22
3
W
L
U
02/05
-4
L
L
U
09/09
21
W
W
U
09/16
-2
L
L
U
BAL logo

Ravens

7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/24
10
W
W
U
12/04
14
W
W
U
12/11
14
W
L
U
12/18
-20
L
L
O
12/24
6
W
L
U
01/01
8
W
W
O
01/15
7
W
L
U
01/22
-3
L
W
U
09/10
31
W
W
O
09/16
-1
L
W
O