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  1. nfelo...
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  3. patriots @ ravens week 13, 2007

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

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    +EV NFL Sides
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    Historic nfelo model performance

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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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    Projected and realized opponent quality
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    Win total projections and results

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    QB Elo model adjusted for era

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NE logo
NEPatriots
11-0
27
TBD
M&T Bank Stadium
40°F
27 mph
24
BALRavens
4-7
BAL logo
TBD
M&T Bank Stadium
40°F
27 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Patriots
3
7
7
10
27
Ravens
7
3
7
7
24

Game Statistics

General
Patriots logo
Ravens logo
Total Yards
326
376
Total Plays
65
60
Yards / Play
5.0
6.3
EPA / Play
+0.16
+0.10
Passing Yards
236
--
Comp/Att
18/38(47%)
15/23(65%)
Yards / Pass
6.2
--
EPA / Pass
+0.10
+0.10
Rushing Yards
90
166
Rush Attempts
24
37
Yards / Rush
3.8
4.5
EPA / Rush
+0.14
+0.08
Downs & Conversions
Patriots logo
Ravens logo
1st Downs
21
20
Passing 1st downs
9
10
Rushing 1st downs
7
10
Penalty 1st downs
5
--
3rd Down %
17%
27%
3rd Down Conversions
2
3
3rd Down Attempts
12
11
Red Zone %
75%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
3
3
Red Zone Attempts
4
4
Negative Plays
Patriots logo
Ravens logo
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-0.42
-4.23
Sacks
3
--
Sack Yards
-21
--
Sack EPA
-4.11
--
Penalties
4
12
Penalty Yards
--
85
Penalty EPA
--
-17.60

Preview data is limited for games before 2009

Model projections and totals are not available before 2009, meaning preview data is limited to spread and margin trends, and team stats.

Model

Projected Winner
NE logo
NEPatriotsFavored
Opening
N/A
Current
N/A
Model
N/A

Win Probability

MarketN/A
ModelN/A
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
Home nfelo
Away nfelo
Home Field
Base HFA
Divisional Adj
Home Bye Adj
Away Bye Adj
Surface Adj
Time Adj
Net QB Adjustment
Home QB Adjustment
Away QB Adjustment
Market Regression
Final Difference
--
Model Spread
--

Quarterbacks

Quarterback Data Not Available
Quarterback Data Not Available

Team Matchup Ranks

Patriots Offense vs Ravens Defense
Patriots logo
Ravens logo

Total

Points / Game
1
22
Yards / Game
1
6
Passing Yards / Game
8
13
Rushing Yards / Game
11
2

EPA

EPA / Play
1
20
EPA / Pass
1
27
EPA / Rush
2
2

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
30
12
Interceptions / Game
3
13
Fumbles / Game
3
25
Turnover EPA / Game
32
2

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
1
6
4th Down Efficiency
4
19
RZ Efficiency
2
3
Ravens Offense vs Patriots Defense
Ravens logo
Patriots logo

Total

Points / Game
24
1
Yards / Game
22
5
Passing Yards / Game
29
21
Rushing Yards / Game
15
9

EPA

EPA / Play
28
12
EPA / Pass
27
3
EPA / Rush
22
29

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
16
24
Interceptions / Game
6
6
Fumbles / Game
32
17
Turnover EPA / Game
1
24

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
18
4
4th Down Efficiency
12
25
RZ Efficiency
28
20

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

NE logo

Patriots

10-0
SU
8-2
ATS
0-0-10
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/16
24
W
W
P
09/23
31
W
W
P
10/01
21
W
W
P
10/07
17
W
W
P
10/14
21
W
W
P
10/21
21
W
W
P
10/28
45
W
W
P
11/04
4
W
L
P
11/18
46
W
W
P
11/25
3
W
L
P
BAL logo

Ravens

4-6
SU
1-9
ATS
0-0-10
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/16
7
W
L
P
09/23
3
W
L
P
09/30
-14
L
L
P
10/07
2
W
L
P
10/14
19
W
W
P
10/21
-5
L
L
P
11/05
-31
L
L
P
11/11
-14
L
L
P
11/18
-3
L
L
P
11/25
-18
L
L
P