NEPatriots
1-0
30
TBD
Lumen Field
70°F
5 mph
35
SEASeahawks
1-0
TBD
Lumen Field
70°F
5 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Patriots
1
7
3
13
24
Seahawks
7
7
14
7
35
Spread
-4.5
Total
OVER
45
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
464
429
Total Plays
71
60
Yards / Play
6.5
7.2
EPA / Play
+0.14
+0.22
Passing Yards
397
275
Comp/Att
30/44(68%)
21/28(75%)
Yards / Pass
9.0
9.8
EPA / Pass
+0.47
+0.37
Rushing Yards
67
154
Rush Attempts
26
30
Yards / Rush
2.6
5.1
EPA / Rush
-0.28
+0.09
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
29
22
Passing 1st downs
22
11
Rushing 1st downs
5
10
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
58%
43%
3rd Down Conversions
7
3
3rd Down Attempts
12
7
Red Zone %
60%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
3
2
Red Zone Attempts
5
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-4.69
-9.33
Sacks
1
2
Sack Yards
--
-13
Sack EPA
-1.14
-3.44
Penalties
2
9
Penalty Yards
--
68
Penalty EPA
--
-9.23
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
SEASeahawksFavored
Opening
-4.0
Current
-4.5
Model
-2.5
Win Probability
Market66.1%
Model56.5%
Spread Pick
Patriots+4.5
Expected Value
+18.0%
Cover Probability
61.8%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-11
Home nfelo
1,561
Away nfelo
1,599
Home Field
+11.8
Base HFA
+6.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+2.2
Time Adj
+3.4
Net QB Adjustment
+15.3
Home QB Adjustment
+16.4
Away QB Adjustment
+1.0
Market Regression
+5.3
Final Difference
45.8
Model Spread
-2.5
Quarterbacks
C. Newton
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+1.0
R. Wilson
Proj. Value
+0.3
Team Elo Adj
+16.4
Team Matchup Ranks
Patriots Offense vs Seahawks Defense
Total
Points / Game
27
16
Yards / Game
26
22
Passing Yards / Game
28
31
Rushing Yards / Game
3
5
EPA
EPA / Play
18
14
EPA / Pass
28
22
EPA / Rush
4
7
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
6
4
Interceptions / Game
23
14
Fumbles / Game
5
17
Turnover EPA / Game
13
14
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
17
26
4th Down Efficiency
23
4
RZ Efficiency
24
18
Seahawks Offense vs Patriots Defense
Total
Points / Game
7
8
Yards / Game
18
14
Passing Yards / Game
7
7
Rushing Yards / Game
12
26
EPA
EPA / Play
6
18
EPA / Pass
12
16
EPA / Rush
7
32
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
26
14
Interceptions / Game
22
1
Fumbles / Game
2
31
Turnover EPA / Game
14
16
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
27
15
4th Down Efficiency
18
17
RZ Efficiency
3
29
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Patriots
5-5
SU
3-6-1
ATS
5-5
O/U
Seahawks
6-4
SU
5-4-1
ATS
5-4-1
O/U