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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. patriots @ seahawks week 2, 2020

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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NE logo
NEPatriots
1-0
30
TBD
Lumen Field
70°F
5 mph
35
SEASeahawks
1-0
SEA logo
TBD
Lumen Field
70°F
5 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Patriots
1
7
3
13
24
Seahawks
7
7
14
7
35

Spread

SEA logo
-4.5

Total

OVER
45

Game Statistics

General
Patriots logo
Seahawks logo
Total Yards
464
429
Total Plays
71
60
Yards / Play
6.5
7.2
EPA / Play
+0.14
+0.22
Passing Yards
397
275
Comp/Att
30/44(68%)
21/28(75%)
Yards / Pass
9.0
9.8
EPA / Pass
+0.47
+0.37
Rushing Yards
67
154
Rush Attempts
26
30
Yards / Rush
2.6
5.1
EPA / Rush
-0.28
+0.09
Downs & Conversions
Patriots logo
Seahawks logo
1st Downs
29
22
Passing 1st downs
22
11
Rushing 1st downs
5
10
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
58%
43%
3rd Down Conversions
7
3
3rd Down Attempts
12
7
Red Zone %
60%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
3
2
Red Zone Attempts
5
2
Negative Plays
Patriots logo
Seahawks logo
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-4.69
-9.33
Sacks
1
2
Sack Yards
--
-13
Sack EPA
-1.14
-3.44
Penalties
2
9
Penalty Yards
--
68
Penalty EPA
--
-9.23

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
SEA logo
SEASeahawksFavored
Opening
-4.0
Current
-4.5
Model
-2.5

Win Probability

Market66.1%
Model56.5%
Spread Pick
NE logo
Patriots+4.5
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+18.0%
Cover Probability
61.8%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-11
Home nfelo
1,560
Away nfelo
1,598
Home Field
+11.8
Base HFA
+6.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+2.2
Time Adj
+3.4
Net QB Adjustment
+15.3
Home QB Adjustment
+16.4
Away QB Adjustment
+1.0
Market Regression
+5.3
Final Difference
45.6
Model Spread
-2.5

Quarterbacks

C. Newton headshot

C. Newton

Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+1.0
Value
Ptile
11/04
2.1
63
11/08
-2.0
33
11/18
3.1
70
11/25
9.1
94
12/02
-4.7
19
12/09
-1.1
39
12/17
-9.2
5
09/08
-4.7
21
09/12
-4.5
22
09/13
4.3
75
R. Wilson headshot

R. Wilson

Proj. Value
+0.2
Team Elo Adj
+16.4
Value
Ptile
11/11
0.9
59
11/24
-8.4
8
12/02
1.0
60
12/08
-5.0
20
12/15
3.8
78
12/22
-9.9
4
12/29
3.4
74
01/05
4.7
83
01/12
3.6
75
09/13
11.0
97

Team Matchup Ranks

Patriots Offense vs Seahawks Defense
Patriots logo
Seahawks logo

Total

Points / Game
27
16
Yards / Game
26
22
Passing Yards / Game
28
31
Rushing Yards / Game
3
5

EPA

EPA / Play
18
14
EPA / Pass
28
22
EPA / Rush
4
7

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
6
4
Interceptions / Game
23
14
Fumbles / Game
5
17
Turnover EPA / Game
13
14

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
17
26
4th Down Efficiency
23
4
RZ Efficiency
24
18
Seahawks Offense vs Patriots Defense
Seahawks logo
Patriots logo

Total

Points / Game
7
8
Yards / Game
18
14
Passing Yards / Game
7
7
Rushing Yards / Game
12
26

EPA

EPA / Play
6
18
EPA / Pass
12
16
EPA / Rush
7
32

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
26
14
Interceptions / Game
22
1
Fumbles / Game
2
31
Turnover EPA / Game
14
16

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
27
15
4th Down Efficiency
18
17
RZ Efficiency
3
29

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

NE logo

Patriots

5-5
SU
3-6-1
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/03
-17
L
L
O
11/17
7
W
W
U
11/24
4
W
L
U
12/01
-6
L
L
O
12/08
-7
L
L
U
12/15
21
W
W
O
12/21
7
W
P
O
12/29
-3
L
L
O
01/04
-7
L
L
U
09/13
10
W
W
U
SEA logo

Seahawks

6-4
SU
5-4-1
ATS
5-4-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/11
3
W
W
O
11/24
8
W
W
U
12/02
7
W
W
O
12/08
-16
L
L
U
12/15
6
W
P
O
12/22
-14
L
L
U
12/29
-5
L
L
P
01/05
8
W
W
U
01/12
-5
L
L
O
09/13
13
W
W
O