NEPatriots
14-4
28
TBD
State Farm Stadium
70°F
024
SEASeahawks
14-4
TBD
State Farm Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Patriots
0
14
0
14
28
Seahawks
0
14
10
0
24
Spread
-1
Total
OVER
47
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
377
396
Total Plays
72
53
Yards / Play
5.2
7.5
EPA / Play
+0.17
+0.14
Passing Yards
320
234
Comp/Att
37/50(74%)
12/21(57%)
Yards / Pass
6.4
11.1
EPA / Pass
+0.34
+0.26
Rushing Yards
57
162
Rush Attempts
21
29
Yards / Rush
2.7
5.6
EPA / Rush
-0.23
+0.09
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
25
20
Passing 1st downs
21
10
Rushing 1st downs
1
8
Penalty 1st downs
3
2
3rd Down %
57%
30%
3rd Down Conversions
8
3
3rd Down Attempts
14
10
Red Zone %
75%
60%
Red Zone Conversions
3
3
Red Zone Attempts
4
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
2
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-6.75
-5.54
Sacks
1
3
Sack Yards
-8
-13
Sack EPA
-1.48
-4.28
Penalties
5
7
Penalty Yards
36
70
Penalty EPA
+0.39
+0.29
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NEPatriotsFavored
Opening
-1.0
Current
-1.0
Model
+0.5
Win Probability
Market52.3%
Model49.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+31
Home nfelo
1,687
Away nfelo
1,681
Home Field
+33.5
Base HFA
--
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+33.5
Net QB Adjustment
-11.9
Home QB Adjustment
+0.6
Away QB Adjustment
+12.4
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
6.4
Model Spread
-0.5
Quarterbacks
T. Brady
Proj. Value
+2.8
Team Elo Adj
+12.4
R. Wilson
Proj. Value
+0.3
Team Elo Adj
+0.6
Team Matchup Ranks
Patriots Offense vs Seahawks Defense
Total
Points / Game
1
1
Yards / Game
10
1
Passing Yards / Game
10
6
Rushing Yards / Game
19
4
EPA
EPA / Play
1
4
EPA / Pass
4
4
EPA / Rush
5
2
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
14
12
Interceptions / Game
6
13
Fumbles / Game
3
15
Turnover EPA / Game
30
25
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
3
16
4th Down Efficiency
3
28
RZ Efficiency
5
22
Seahawks Offense vs Patriots Defense
Total
Points / Game
9
8
Yards / Game
8
12
Passing Yards / Game
13
21
Rushing Yards / Game
1
13
EPA
EPA / Play
8
9
EPA / Pass
10
11
EPA / Rush
1
19
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
10
28
Interceptions / Game
5
10
Fumbles / Game
9
23
Turnover EPA / Game
31
18
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
9
13
4th Down Efficiency
29
12
RZ Efficiency
19
16
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Patriots
8-2
SU
6-4
ATS
4-5-1
O/U
Seahawks
9-1
SU
7-2-1
ATS
5-5
O/U