NEPatriots
0-1
17
TBD
Acrisure Stadium
70°F
014
PITSteelers
1-0
TBD
Acrisure Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Patriots
3
7
7
0
17
Steelers
0
3
3
8
14
Spread
3
P
Total
UNDER
40
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
376
245
Total Plays
66
59
Yards / Play
5.7
4.2
EPA / Play
+0.00
-0.06
Passing Yards
--
154
Comp/Att
21/35(60%)
21/34(62%)
Yards / Pass
--
4.5
EPA / Pass
+0.15
-0.14
Rushing Yards
124
91
Rush Attempts
31
22
Yards / Rush
4.0
4.1
EPA / Rush
+0.00
+0.05
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
18
16
Passing 1st downs
10
11
Rushing 1st downs
8
5
Penalty 1st downs
--
--
3rd Down %
53%
53%
3rd Down Conversions
9
8
3rd Down Attempts
17
15
Red Zone %
33%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
+2.93
-5.28
Sacks
--
3
Sack Yards
--
-16
Sack EPA
--
-3.36
Penalties
7
3
Penalty Yards
--
20
Penalty EPA
--
-6.86
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NEPatriotsFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-1.0
Win Probability
Market59.7%
Model51.8%
Spread Pick
Steelers+3.0
Expected Value
+8.7%
Cover Probability
53.5%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+33
Home nfelo
1,487
Away nfelo
1,506
Home Field
+50.5
Base HFA
+37.4
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+13.1
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+1.3
Home QB Adjustment
+0.3
Away QB Adjustment
-0.9
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-12.2
Model Spread
+1.0
Quarterbacks
M. Jones
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
-0.9
M. Trubisky
Proj. Value
-0.5
Team Elo Adj
+0.3
Team Matchup Ranks
Patriots Offense vs Steelers Defense
Total
Points / Game
16
10
Yards / Game
26
11
Passing Yards / Game
19
8
Rushing Yards / Game
24
9
EPA
EPA / Play
26
24
EPA / Pass
22
29
EPA / Rush
24
10
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
30
18
Interceptions / Game
17
1
Fumbles / Game
29
31
Turnover EPA / Game
22
15
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
27
16
4th Down Efficiency
28
26
RZ Efficiency
32
16
Steelers Offense vs Patriots Defense
Total
Points / Game
26
11
Yards / Game
23
9
Passing Yards / Game
20
27
Rushing Yards / Game
16
7
EPA
EPA / Play
19
2
EPA / Pass
16
3
EPA / Rush
11
5
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
18
14
Interceptions / Game
17
3
Fumbles / Game
1
20
Turnover EPA / Game
26
32
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
7
20
4th Down Efficiency
3
2
RZ Efficiency
24
21
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Patriots
5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U
Steelers
5-5
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U