NEPatriots
5-1
27
TBD
Acrisure Stadium
63°F
13 mph
16
PITSteelers
4-2
TBD
Acrisure Stadium
63°F
13 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Patriots
7
7
6
7
27
Steelers
0
10
3
3
16
Spread
-7.5
Total
UNDER
49
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
362
375
Total Plays
55
69
Yards / Play
6.6
5.4
EPA / Play
+0.14
-0.10
Passing Yards
--
--
Comp/Att
19/26(73%)
29/47(62%)
Yards / Pass
--
--
EPA / Pass
+0.33
-0.00
Rushing Yards
140
94
Rush Attempts
29
22
Yards / Rush
4.8
4.3
EPA / Rush
+0.17
-0.06
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
21
17
Passing 1st downs
9
11
Rushing 1st downs
11
5
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
58%
31%
3rd Down Conversions
7
5
3rd Down Attempts
12
16
Red Zone %
100%
25%
Red Zone Conversions
3
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-4.55
-0.03
Sacks
--
--
Sack Yards
--
--
Sack EPA
--
--
Penalties
4
10
Penalty Yards
40
85
Penalty EPA
-4.33
-10.15
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NEPatriotsFavored
Opening
-7.5
Current
-7.5
Model
-7.5
Win Probability
Market74.9%
Model74.9%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-164
Home nfelo
1,620
Away nfelo
1,644
Home Field
+78.0
Base HFA
+57.9
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+20.2
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-217.9
Home QB Adjustment
-145.8
Away QB Adjustment
+72.1
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-189.9
Model Spread
+7.5
Quarterbacks
T. Brady
Proj. Value
+2.8
Team Elo Adj
+72.1
M. Jones
Proj. Value
-3.3
Team Elo Adj
-145.8
Value
Ptile
Team Matchup Ranks
Patriots Offense vs Steelers Defense
Total
Points / Game
3
10
Yards / Game
4
10
Passing Yards / Game
8
10
Rushing Yards / Game
12
8
EPA
EPA / Play
2
18
EPA / Pass
2
15
EPA / Rush
16
17
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
17
32
Interceptions / Game
1
19
Fumbles / Game
14
15
Turnover EPA / Game
31
18
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
2
24
4th Down Efficiency
6
19
RZ Efficiency
8
5
Steelers Offense vs Patriots Defense
Total
Points / Game
12
1
Yards / Game
6
8
Passing Yards / Game
25
6
Rushing Yards / Game
8
3
EPA
EPA / Play
6
5
EPA / Pass
7
8
EPA / Rush
3
13
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
25
27
Interceptions / Game
21
12
Fumbles / Game
4
10
Turnover EPA / Game
20
19
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
10
4
4th Down Efficiency
11
7
RZ Efficiency
16
12
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Patriots
6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
4-6
O/U
Steelers
6-4
SU
5-3-2
ATS
2-8
O/U