NEPatriots
6-2
39
TBD
Acrisure Stadium
49°F
8 mph
26
PITSteelers
6-2
TBD
Acrisure Stadium
49°F
8 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Patriots
10
0
13
10
33
Steelers
0
3
0
23
26
Spread
+4.5
Total
OVER
44.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
453
429
Total Plays
68
72
Yards / Play
6.7
6.0
EPA / Play
+0.32
+0.05
Passing Yards
--
349
Comp/Att
30/44(68%)
30/49(61%)
Yards / Pass
--
7.1
EPA / Pass
+0.45
-0.07
Rushing Yards
103
80
Rush Attempts
24
18
Yards / Rush
4.3
4.4
EPA / Rush
+0.01
+0.16
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
26
27
Passing 1st downs
20
22
Rushing 1st downs
5
4
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
30%
42%
3rd Down Conversions
3
5
3rd Down Attempts
10
12
Red Zone %
60%
40%
Red Zone Conversions
3
2
Red Zone Attempts
5
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-7.94
Sacks
--
5
Sack Yards
--
-38
Sack EPA
--
-7.91
Penalties
10
6
Penalty Yards
113
45
Penalty EPA
-1.59
-6.49
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
PITSteelersFavored
Opening
-4.0
Current
-4.5
Model
-4.5
Win Probability
Market66.1%
Model66.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+128
Home nfelo
1,591
Away nfelo
1,600
Home Field
+84.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+52.1
Home QB Adjustment
+51.5
Away QB Adjustment
-0.6
Market Regression
+10.7
Final Difference
116.0
Model Spread
-4.5
Quarterbacks
T. Brady
Proj. Value
+2.8
Team Elo Adj
-0.6
B. Roethlisberger
Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
+51.5
Team Matchup Ranks
Patriots Offense vs Steelers Defense
Total
Points / Game
1
2
Yards / Game
7
2
Passing Yards / Game
23
17
Rushing Yards / Game
9
1
EPA
EPA / Play
1
2
EPA / Pass
2
4
EPA / Rush
2
1
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
17
8
Interceptions / Game
1
10
Fumbles / Game
2
5
Turnover EPA / Game
32
30
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
2
5
4th Down Efficiency
17
25
RZ Efficiency
9
4
Steelers Offense vs Patriots Defense
Total
Points / Game
12
8
Yards / Game
14
25
Passing Yards / Game
10
25
Rushing Yards / Game
11
13
EPA
EPA / Play
13
20
EPA / Pass
9
15
EPA / Rush
10
22
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
32
24
Interceptions / Game
6
2
Fumbles / Game
18
13
Turnover EPA / Game
20
32
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
6
32
4th Down Efficiency
27
25
RZ Efficiency
15
22
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Patriots
6-4
SU
5-4-1
ATS
8-2
O/U
Steelers
8-2
SU
6-3-1
ATS
5-4-1
O/U