NEPatriots
9-4
10
TBD
Acrisure Stadium
42°F
5 mph
17
PITSteelers
7-5
TBD
Acrisure Stadium
42°F
5 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Patriots
7
0
3
0
10
Steelers
7
7
0
3
17
Spread
+2.5
Total
UNDER
55
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
368
376
Total Plays
56
61
Yards / Play
6.6
6.2
EPA / Play
+0.01
+0.12
Passing Yards
272
218
Comp/Att
25/36(69%)
22/34(65%)
Yards / Pass
7.6
6.4
EPA / Pass
+0.05
+0.12
Rushing Yards
96
158
Rush Attempts
19
25
Yards / Rush
5.1
6.3
EPA / Rush
+0.09
+0.14
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
18
24
Passing 1st downs
9
13
Rushing 1st downs
7
9
Penalty 1st downs
2
2
3rd Down %
30%
44%
3rd Down Conversions
3
4
3rd Down Attempts
10
9
Red Zone %
0%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
--
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
1
2
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-3.67
-6.53
Sacks
1
2
Sack Yards
-7
-17
Sack EPA
-1.56
-2.83
Penalties
14
4
Penalty Yards
106
40
Penalty EPA
-11.42
-6.72
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NEPatriotsFavored
Opening
-1.0
Current
-2.5
Model
-1.5
Win Probability
Market56.6%
Model54.0%
Spread Pick
Steelers+2.5
Expected Value
+1.5%
Cover Probability
53.1%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+1
Home nfelo
1,581
Away nfelo
1,671
Home Field
+77.5
Base HFA
+57.4
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+20.1
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+13.6
Home QB Adjustment
+17.7
Away QB Adjustment
+4.2
Market Regression
-12.1
Final Difference
-28.1
Model Spread
+1.5
Quarterbacks
T. Brady
Proj. Value
+2.8
Team Elo Adj
+4.2
B. Roethlisberger
Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
+17.7
Team Matchup Ranks
Patriots Offense vs Steelers Defense
Total
Points / Game
4
16
Yards / Game
4
6
Passing Yards / Game
25
27
Rushing Yards / Game
5
5
EPA
EPA / Play
4
20
EPA / Pass
7
18
EPA / Rush
6
23
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
4
29
Interceptions / Game
12
27
Fumbles / Game
8
19
Turnover EPA / Game
27
8
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
9
9
4th Down Efficiency
19
12
RZ Efficiency
10
16
Steelers Offense vs Patriots Defense
Total
Points / Game
5
6
Yards / Game
5
15
Passing Yards / Game
2
9
Rushing Yards / Game
31
7
EPA
EPA / Play
8
7
EPA / Pass
4
5
EPA / Rush
15
13
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
32
32
Interceptions / Game
26
5
Fumbles / Game
18
14
Turnover EPA / Game
7
20
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
6
15
4th Down Efficiency
6
4
RZ Efficiency
2
24
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Patriots
8-2
SU
7-3
ATS
4-6
O/U
Steelers
6-4
SU
5-4-1
ATS
4-6
O/U