NEPatriots
10-1
22
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
028
HOUTexans
7-4
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Patriots
3
0
6
13
22
Texans
7
7
7
7
28
Spread
+3.5
Total
OVER
47
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
448
276
Total Plays
80
52
Yards / Play
5.6
5.3
EPA / Play
+0.03
+0.16
Passing Yards
303
224
Comp/Att
24/48(50%)
19/26(73%)
Yards / Pass
6.3
8.6
EPA / Pass
+0.05
+0.48
Rushing Yards
145
52
Rush Attempts
29
23
Yards / Rush
5.0
2.3
EPA / Rush
+0.07
-0.21
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
29
16
Passing 1st downs
16
12
Rushing 1st downs
9
2
Penalty 1st downs
4
2
3rd Down %
53%
55%
3rd Down Conversions
9
6
3rd Down Attempts
17
11
Red Zone %
67%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
2
3
Red Zone Attempts
3
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-5.08
--
Sacks
3
3
Sack Yards
-23
-16
Sack EPA
-5.29
-4.48
Penalties
8
8
Penalty Yards
60
79
Penalty EPA
-5.29
-0.90
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NEPatriotsFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-3.5
Model
-3.5
Win Probability
Market62.9%
Model62.9%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-105
Home nfelo
1,524
Away nfelo
1,708
Home Field
+57.3
Base HFA
+48.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+8.7
Net QB Adjustment
+22.8
Home QB Adjustment
+7.4
Away QB Adjustment
-15.4
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-91.7
Model Spread
+3.5
Quarterbacks
T. Brady
Proj. Value
+2.8
Team Elo Adj
-15.4
D. Watson
Proj. Value
-2.7
Team Elo Adj
+7.4
Team Matchup Ranks
Patriots Offense vs Texans Defense
Total
Points / Game
7
23
Yards / Game
14
28
Passing Yards / Game
20
25
Rushing Yards / Game
18
24
EPA
EPA / Play
16
26
EPA / Pass
18
25
EPA / Rush
15
24
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
21
3
Interceptions / Game
10
23
Fumbles / Game
15
8
Turnover EPA / Game
28
23
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
18
31
4th Down Efficiency
26
9
RZ Efficiency
26
32
Texans Offense vs Patriots Defense
Total
Points / Game
12
1
Yards / Game
11
1
Passing Yards / Game
17
4
Rushing Yards / Game
9
8
EPA
EPA / Play
8
1
EPA / Pass
13
1
EPA / Rush
6
9
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
6
29
Interceptions / Game
18
1
Fumbles / Game
17
18
Turnover EPA / Game
18
31
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
8
1
4th Down Efficiency
18
6
RZ Efficiency
9
8
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Patriots
9-1
SU
6-4
ATS
3-7
O/U
Texans
7-3
SU
4-6
ATS
3-7
O/U