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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. patriots @ texans week 13, 2019

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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NE logo
NEPatriots
10-1
22
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
0
28
HOUTexans
7-4
HOU logo
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Patriots
3
0
6
13
22
Texans
7
7
7
7
28

Spread

HOU logo
+3.5

Total

OVER
47

Game Statistics

General
Patriots logo
Texans logo
Total Yards
448
276
Total Plays
80
52
Yards / Play
5.6
5.3
EPA / Play
+0.03
+0.16
Passing Yards
303
224
Comp/Att
24/48(50%)
19/26(73%)
Yards / Pass
6.3
8.6
EPA / Pass
+0.05
+0.48
Rushing Yards
145
52
Rush Attempts
29
23
Yards / Rush
5.0
2.3
EPA / Rush
+0.07
-0.21
Downs & Conversions
Patriots logo
Texans logo
1st Downs
29
16
Passing 1st downs
16
12
Rushing 1st downs
9
2
Penalty 1st downs
4
2
3rd Down %
53%
55%
3rd Down Conversions
9
6
3rd Down Attempts
17
11
Red Zone %
67%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
2
3
Red Zone Attempts
3
3
Negative Plays
Patriots logo
Texans logo
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-5.08
--
Sacks
3
3
Sack Yards
-23
-16
Sack EPA
-5.29
-4.48
Penalties
8
8
Penalty Yards
60
79
Penalty EPA
-5.29
-0.90

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
NE logo
NEPatriotsFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-3.5
Model
-3.5

Win Probability

Market62.9%
Model62.9%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-106
Home nfelo
1,522
Away nfelo
1,709
Home Field
+57.6
Base HFA
+48.9
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+8.8
Net QB Adjustment
+22.8
Home QB Adjustment
+7.4
Away QB Adjustment
-15.4
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-91.7
Model Spread
+3.5

Quarterbacks

T. Brady headshot

T. Brady

Proj. Value
+2.8
Team Elo Adj
-15.4
Value
Ptile
09/15
3.5
75
09/22
3.7
77
09/29
-6.4
14
10/06
5.7
85
10/10
3.6
75
10/21
0.6
56
10/27
-1.1
46
11/03
0.1
52
11/17
-3.5
28
11/24
-5.4
17
D. Watson headshot

D. Watson

Proj. Value
-2.4
Team Elo Adj
+7.4
Value
Ptile
09/15
-5.8
16
09/22
7.8
93
09/29
-5.3
18
10/06
18.4
100
10/13
7.2
90
10/20
-1.1
46
10/27
4.3
80
11/03
5.9
86
11/17
-10.0
4
11/21
1.8
66

Team Matchup Ranks

Patriots Offense vs Texans Defense
Patriots logo
Texans logo

Total

Points / Game
7
23
Yards / Game
14
28
Passing Yards / Game
20
25
Rushing Yards / Game
18
24

EPA

EPA / Play
16
26
EPA / Pass
18
25
EPA / Rush
15
24

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
21
3
Interceptions / Game
10
23
Fumbles / Game
15
8
Turnover EPA / Game
28
23

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
18
31
4th Down Efficiency
26
9
RZ Efficiency
26
32
Texans Offense vs Patriots Defense
Texans logo
Patriots logo

Total

Points / Game
12
1
Yards / Game
11
1
Passing Yards / Game
17
4
Rushing Yards / Game
9
8

EPA

EPA / Play
8
1
EPA / Pass
13
1
EPA / Rush
6
9

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
6
29
Interceptions / Game
18
1
Fumbles / Game
17
18
Turnover EPA / Game
18
31

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
8
1
4th Down Efficiency
18
6
RZ Efficiency
9
8

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

NE logo

Patriots

9-1
SU
6-4
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/15
43
W
W
U
09/22
16
W
L
O
09/29
6
W
L
U
10/06
26
W
W
U
10/10
21
W
W
O
10/21
33
W
W
U
10/27
14
W
W
U
11/03
-17
L
L
O
11/17
7
W
W
U
11/24
4
W
L
U
HOU logo

Texans

7-3
SU
4-6
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/15
1
W
L
U
09/22
7
W
W
U
09/29
-6
L
L
U
10/06
21
W
W
O
10/13
7
W
W
O
10/20
-7
L
L
O
10/27
3
W
L
U
11/03
23
W
W
U
11/17
-34
L
L
U
11/21
3
W
L
U