NEPatriots
10-2
27
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
06
HOUTexans
6-6
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Patriots
7
10
3
7
27
Texans
3
3
0
0
6
Spread
-4.5
Total
UNDER
46
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
313
189
Total Plays
64
52
Yards / Play
4.9
3.6
EPA / Play
+0.04
-0.43
Passing Yards
197
102
Comp/Att
22/30(73%)
12/24(50%)
Yards / Pass
6.6
4.3
EPA / Pass
+0.16
-0.80
Rushing Yards
116
87
Rush Attempts
31
22
Yards / Rush
3.7
4.0
EPA / Rush
-0.02
-0.25
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
18
7
Passing 1st downs
11
4
Rushing 1st downs
7
2
Penalty 1st downs
--
1
3rd Down %
44%
21%
3rd Down Conversions
7
3
3rd Down Attempts
16
14
Red Zone %
100%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
3
--
Red Zone Attempts
3
1
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
2
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
2
Turnover EPA
--
-1.10
Sacks
3
6
Sack Yards
-29
-57
Sack EPA
-6.43
-18.41
Penalties
6
4
Penalty Yards
46
36
Penalty EPA
-4.10
-4.83
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NEPatriotsFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-4.5
Model
-4.5
Win Probability
Market66.6%
Model66.6%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-74
Home nfelo
1,493
Away nfelo
1,638
Home Field
+71.1
Base HFA
+60.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+10.8
Net QB Adjustment
-0.0
Home QB Adjustment
+2.5
Away QB Adjustment
+2.5
Market Regression
-28.2
Final Difference
-119.9
Model Spread
+4.5
Quarterbacks
T. Brady
Proj. Value
+2.8
Team Elo Adj
+2.5
B. Hoyer
Proj. Value
-3.7
Team Elo Adj
+2.5
Team Matchup Ranks
Patriots Offense vs Texans Defense
Total
Points / Game
3
10
Yards / Game
9
3
Passing Yards / Game
5
4
Rushing Yards / Game
32
11
EPA
EPA / Play
1
3
EPA / Pass
4
4
EPA / Rush
6
12
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
30
17
Interceptions / Game
2
14
Fumbles / Game
2
22
Turnover EPA / Game
31
14
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
15
1
4th Down Efficiency
7
24
RZ Efficiency
4
19
Texans Offense vs Patriots Defense
Total
Points / Game
26
8
Yards / Game
20
8
Passing Yards / Game
10
28
Rushing Yards / Game
16
10
EPA
EPA / Play
28
10
EPA / Pass
26
12
EPA / Rush
22
7
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
27
14
Interceptions / Game
21
24
Fumbles / Game
20
11
Turnover EPA / Game
17
7
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
18
16
4th Down Efficiency
32
12
RZ Efficiency
14
14
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Patriots
8-2
SU
4-4-2
ATS
6-4
O/U
Texans
6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
6-4
O/U