NEPatriots
4-2
31
TBD
Nissan Stadium
60°F
18 mph
13
TENTitans
1-5
TBD
Nissan Stadium
60°F
18 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Patriots
3
14
8
0
25
Titans
10
3
0
0
13
Spread
-6.5
Total
OVER
41
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
387
255
Total Plays
64
51
Yards / Play
6.0
5.0
EPA / Play
+0.21
-0.17
Passing Yards
212
216
Comp/Att
22/24(92%)
25/34(74%)
Yards / Pass
8.8
6.4
EPA / Pass
+0.48
-0.35
Rushing Yards
175
39
Rush Attempts
36
12
Yards / Rush
4.9
3.3
EPA / Rush
+0.09
-0.23
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
22
16
Passing 1st downs
13
14
Rushing 1st downs
9
1
Penalty 1st downs
--
1
3rd Down %
42%
30%
3rd Down Conversions
5
3
3rd Down Attempts
12
10
Red Zone %
67%
NaN%
Red Zone Conversions
2
--
Red Zone Attempts
3
--
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
2
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-13.04
Sacks
4
5
Sack Yards
-22
-39
Sack EPA
-5.56
-16.71
Penalties
5
3
Penalty Yards
36
15
Penalty EPA
-2.75
-2.10
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NEPatriotsFavored
Opening
-7.0
Current
-6.5
Model
-6.0
Win Probability
Market71.4%
Model70.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-122
Home nfelo
1,337
Away nfelo
1,464
Home Field
+47.8
Base HFA
+40.8
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+14.3
Time Adj
-7.3
Net QB Adjustment
-43.2
Home QB Adjustment
-25.2
Away QB Adjustment
+18.1
Market Regression
+3.1
Final Difference
-151.4
Model Spread
+6.0
Quarterbacks
D. Maye
Proj. Value
+0.9
Team Elo Adj
+18.1
C. Ward
Proj. Value
-4.0
Team Elo Adj
-25.2
Team Matchup Ranks
Patriots Offense vs Titans Defense
Total
Points / Game
7
30
Yards / Game
9
24
Passing Yards / Game
1
24
Rushing Yards / Game
20
25
EPA
EPA / Play
6
26
EPA / Pass
1
28
EPA / Rush
28
20
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
14
1
Interceptions / Game
9
23
Fumbles / Game
26
25
Turnover EPA / Game
14
7
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
7
21
4th Down Efficiency
1
31
RZ Efficiency
17
18
Titans Offense vs Patriots Defense
Total
Points / Game
32
5
Yards / Game
32
8
Passing Yards / Game
24
27
Rushing Yards / Game
32
1
EPA
EPA / Play
31
8
EPA / Pass
31
14
EPA / Rush
31
10
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
20
6
Interceptions / Game
10
16
Fumbles / Game
32
16
Turnover EPA / Game
13
21
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
32
11
4th Down Efficiency
31
2
RZ Efficiency
30
31
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Patriots
5-5
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U
Titans
1-9
SU
2-8
ATS
6-4
O/U