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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. patriots @ titans week 9, 2024

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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NE logo
NEPatriots
2-6
17
TBD
Nissan Stadium
75°F
10 mph
20
TENTitans
1-6
TEN logo
TBD
Nissan Stadium
75°F
10 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
OT
Total
Patriots
0
3
7
7
0
17
Titans
7
0
3
7
3
20

Spread

NE logo
+3.5

Total

UNDER
38.5

Game Statistics

General
Patriots logo
Titans logo
Total Yards
295
400
Total Plays
65
73
Yards / Play
4.5
5.5
EPA / Play
-0.11
-0.07
Passing Yards
185
233
Comp/Att
29/41(71%)
20/33(61%)
Yards / Pass
4.5
7.1
EPA / Pass
-0.28
+0.16
Rushing Yards
110
167
Rush Attempts
20
39
Yards / Rush
5.5
4.3
EPA / Rush
+0.27
-0.11
Downs & Conversions
Patriots logo
Titans logo
1st Downs
20
24
Passing 1st downs
10
13
Rushing 1st downs
7
9
Penalty 1st downs
3
2
3rd Down %
27%
44%
3rd Down Conversions
3
7
3rd Down Attempts
11
16
Red Zone %
100%
40%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
2
5
Negative Plays
Patriots logo
Titans logo
Turnovers
3
1
Interceptions
2
1
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-11.30
-5.39
Sacks
4
1
Sack Yards
-21
-7
Sack EPA
-9.50
-1.74
Penalties
8
10
Penalty Yards
58
67
Penalty EPA
-5.70
-12.14

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
TEN logo
TENTitansFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.5
Model
-4.0

Win Probability

Market62.5%
Model65.0%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+137
Home nfelo
1,398
Away nfelo
1,352
Home Field
+50.1
Base HFA
+42.8
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+14.9
Time Adj
-7.7
Net QB Adjustment
+41.4
Home QB Adjustment
+48.5
Away QB Adjustment
+7.0
Market Regression
+7.6
Final Difference
107.2
Model Spread
-4.0

Quarterbacks

D. Maye headshot

D. Maye

Proj. Value
+1.1
Team Elo Adj
+7.0
Value
Ptile
10/13
-1.0
41
10/20
3.2
71
10/27
-0.3
47
B. Rudolph headshot

B. Rudolph

Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
+48.5
Value
Ptile
11/14
-12.1
2
11/24
-11.8
2
01/03
0.2
47
11/14
-0.4
49
12/23
3.7
74
12/31
1.2
57
01/06
1.2
57
01/15
3.1
71
10/20
-2.5
31
10/27
0.4
51

Team Matchup Ranks

Patriots Offense vs Titans Defense
Patriots logo
Titans logo

Total

Points / Game
30
30
Yards / Game
31
3
Passing Yards / Game
22
5
Rushing Yards / Game
14
25

EPA

EPA / Play
28
21
EPA / Pass
27
18
EPA / Rush
25
20

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
1
6
Interceptions / Game
11
18
Fumbles / Game
29
19
Turnover EPA / Game
9
8

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
29
22
4th Down Efficiency
14
31
RZ Efficiency
30
24
Titans Offense vs Patriots Defense
Titans logo
Patriots logo

Total

Points / Game
27
21
Yards / Game
26
21
Passing Yards / Game
15
1
Rushing Yards / Game
18
22

EPA

EPA / Play
30
26
EPA / Pass
30
30
EPA / Rush
29
18

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
3
6
Interceptions / Game
31
27
Fumbles / Game
27
30
Turnover EPA / Game
2
3

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
20
27
4th Down Efficiency
30
11
RZ Efficiency
24
26

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

NE logo

Patriots

2-8
SU
4-6
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/31
-6
L
W
O
01/07
-14
L
L
U
09/08
6
W
W
U
09/15
-3
L
W
O
09/19
-21
L
L
U
09/29
-17
L
L
O
10/06
-5
L
L
U
10/13
-20
L
L
O
10/20
-16
L
L
O
10/27
3
W
W
O
TEN logo

Titans

2-8
SU
2-7-1
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/24
-3
L
P
U
12/31
-23
L
L
U
01/07
8
W
W
O
09/08
-7
L
L
U
09/15
-7
L
L
U
09/22
-16
L
L
O
09/30
19
W
W
O
10/13
-3
L
L
U
10/20
-24
L
L
O
10/27
-38
L
L
O