NEPatriots
2-6
17
TBD
Nissan Stadium
75°F
10 mph
20
TENTitans
1-6
TBD
Nissan Stadium
75°F
10 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
OT
Total
Patriots
0
3
7
7
0
17
Titans
7
0
3
7
3
20
Spread
+3.5
Total
UNDER
38.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
295
400
Total Plays
65
73
Yards / Play
4.5
5.5
EPA / Play
-0.11
-0.07
Passing Yards
185
233
Comp/Att
29/41(71%)
20/33(61%)
Yards / Pass
4.5
7.1
EPA / Pass
-0.28
+0.16
Rushing Yards
110
167
Rush Attempts
20
39
Yards / Rush
5.5
4.3
EPA / Rush
+0.27
-0.11
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
20
24
Passing 1st downs
10
13
Rushing 1st downs
7
9
Penalty 1st downs
3
2
3rd Down %
27%
44%
3rd Down Conversions
3
7
3rd Down Attempts
11
16
Red Zone %
100%
40%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
2
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
1
Interceptions
2
1
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-11.30
-5.39
Sacks
4
1
Sack Yards
-21
-7
Sack EPA
-9.50
-1.74
Penalties
8
10
Penalty Yards
58
67
Penalty EPA
-5.70
-12.14
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
TENTitansFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.5
Model
-4.0
Win Probability
Market62.5%
Model65.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+142
Home nfelo
1,403
Away nfelo
1,352
Home Field
+50.3
Base HFA
+43.0
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+15.0
Time Adj
-7.7
Net QB Adjustment
+41.1
Home QB Adjustment
+48.0
Away QB Adjustment
+6.9
Market Regression
+7.2
Final Difference
109.1
Model Spread
-4.0
Quarterbacks
D. Maye
Proj. Value
-0.4
Team Elo Adj
+6.9
Value
Ptile
B. Rudolph
Proj. Value
-1.1
Team Elo Adj
+48.0
Team Matchup Ranks
Patriots Offense vs Titans Defense
Total
Points / Game
30
30
Yards / Game
31
3
Passing Yards / Game
22
5
Rushing Yards / Game
14
25
EPA
EPA / Play
28
21
EPA / Pass
27
18
EPA / Rush
25
20
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
1
6
Interceptions / Game
11
18
Fumbles / Game
29
19
Turnover EPA / Game
9
8
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
29
22
4th Down Efficiency
14
31
RZ Efficiency
30
24
Titans Offense vs Patriots Defense
Total
Points / Game
27
21
Yards / Game
26
21
Passing Yards / Game
15
1
Rushing Yards / Game
18
22
EPA
EPA / Play
30
26
EPA / Pass
30
30
EPA / Rush
29
18
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
3
6
Interceptions / Game
31
27
Fumbles / Game
27
30
Turnover EPA / Game
2
3
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
20
27
4th Down Efficiency
30
11
RZ Efficiency
24
26
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Patriots
2-8
SU
4-6
ATS
6-4
O/U
Titans
2-8
SU
2-7-1
ATS
5-5
O/U