OAKRaiders
10-7
19
TBD
Paycor Stadium
31°F
12 mph
26
CINBengals
10-7
TBD
Paycor Stadium
31°F
12 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Raiders
3
10
0
6
19
Bengals
10
10
3
3
26
Spread
-6
Total
UNDER
48.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
385
308
Total Plays
71
61
Yards / Play
5.4
5.0
EPA / Play
+0.02
+0.13
Passing Yards
282
225
Comp/Att
29/54(54%)
24/34(71%)
Yards / Pass
5.2
6.6
EPA / Pass
-0.00
+0.29
Rushing Yards
103
83
Rush Attempts
14
25
Yards / Rush
7.4
3.3
EPA / Rush
+0.21
-0.12
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
23
18
Passing 1st downs
15
14
Rushing 1st downs
4
4
Penalty 1st downs
4
--
3rd Down %
44%
42%
3rd Down Conversions
8
5
3rd Down Attempts
18
12
Red Zone %
20%
40%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
5
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-8.10
--
Sacks
3
2
Sack Yards
-28
-19
Sack EPA
-8.76
-3.78
Penalties
7
7
Penalty Yards
--
56
Penalty EPA
--
-10.53
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
CINBengalsFavored
Opening
-6.0
Current
-6.0
Model
-6.0
Win Probability
Market69.3%
Model69.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+149
Home nfelo
1,556
Away nfelo
1,510
Home Field
+35.9
Base HFA
+36.2
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+12.6
Time Adj
-12.9
Net QB Adjustment
+54.5
Home QB Adjustment
+39.8
Away QB Adjustment
-14.7
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
141.4
Model Spread
-6.0
Quarterbacks
D. Carr
Proj. Value
+1.0
Team Elo Adj
-14.7
J. Burrow
Proj. Value
+4.0
Team Elo Adj
+39.8
Team Matchup Ranks
Raiders Offense vs Bengals Defense
Total
Points / Game
18
13
Yards / Game
8
19
Passing Yards / Game
2
28
Rushing Yards / Game
28
7
EPA
EPA / Play
19
10
EPA / Pass
15
14
EPA / Rush
28
15
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
13
1
Interceptions / Game
17
8
Fumbles / Game
32
8
Turnover EPA / Game
11
22
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
22
20
4th Down Efficiency
7
2
RZ Efficiency
29
17
Bengals Offense vs Raiders Defense
Total
Points / Game
9
26
Yards / Game
14
14
Passing Yards / Game
3
11
Rushing Yards / Game
24
15
EPA
EPA / Play
12
28
EPA / Pass
9
28
EPA / Rush
22
6
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
22
11
Interceptions / Game
11
32
Fumbles / Game
2
26
Turnover EPA / Game
17
2
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
15
16
4th Down Efficiency
5
32
RZ Efficiency
23
32
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Raiders
5-5
SU
4-6
ATS
4-6
O/U
Bengals
5-5
SU
6-4
ATS
6-3-1
O/U