OAKRaiders
-
17
TBD
Empower Field at Mile High
70°F
016
DENBroncos
-
TBD
Empower Field at Mile High
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Raiders
7
3
0
7
17
Broncos
6
7
0
3
16
Spread
+3
Total
UNDER
43
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
261
260
Total Plays
55
58
Yards / Play
4.7
4.5
EPA / Play
+0.16
+0.08
Passing Yards
--
166
Comp/Att
20/26(77%)
27/34(79%)
Yards / Pass
--
4.9
EPA / Pass
+0.50
+0.07
Rushing Yards
61
94
Rush Attempts
29
22
Yards / Rush
2.1
4.3
EPA / Rush
-0.24
-0.15
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
22
22
Passing 1st downs
11
11
Rushing 1st downs
5
5
Penalty 1st downs
6
6
3rd Down %
45%
45%
3rd Down Conversions
5
5
3rd Down Attempts
11
11
Red Zone %
50%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
4
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-4.91
--
Sacks
--
2
Sack Yards
--
-11
Sack EPA
--
-2.67
Penalties
10
10
Penalty Yards
97
83
Penalty EPA
-12.77
-14.69
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
DENBroncosFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.3%
Model59.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+39
Home nfelo
1,500
Away nfelo
1,501
Home Field
+23.3
Base HFA
+42.4
Divisional Adj
-19.1
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+16.7
Home QB Adjustment
+14.2
Away QB Adjustment
-2.5
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
65.4
Model Spread
-3.0
Quarterbacks
J. Garoppolo
Proj. Value
-0.8
Team Elo Adj
-2.5
R. Wilson
Proj. Value
+0.3
Team Elo Adj
+14.2
Team Matchup Ranks
Raiders Offense vs Broncos Defense
Total
Points / Game
23
27
Yards / Game
27
29
Passing Yards / Game
32
14
Rushing Yards / Game
30
30
EPA
EPA / Play
24
24
EPA / Pass
22
26
EPA / Rush
26
19
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
20
6
Interceptions / Game
28
19
Fumbles / Game
10
1
Turnover EPA / Game
13
18
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
24
2
4th Down Efficiency
6
10
RZ Efficiency
24
21
Broncos Offense vs Raiders Defense
Total
Points / Game
20
7
Yards / Game
26
14
Passing Yards / Game
13
27
Rushing Yards / Game
19
20
EPA
EPA / Play
20
5
EPA / Pass
20
9
EPA / Rush
19
12
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
11
20
Interceptions / Game
4
17
Fumbles / Game
27
21
Turnover EPA / Game
15
24
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
22
25
4th Down Efficiency
4
23
RZ Efficiency
19
27
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Raiders
4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
4-6
O/U
Broncos
3-7
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U