OAKRaiders
2-10
13
TBD
Raymond James Stadium
71°F
4 mph
28
TBBuccaneers
6-6
TBD
Raymond James Stadium
71°F
4 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Raiders
0
10
0
3
13
Buccaneers
14
0
0
14
28
Spread
-6.5
Total
UNDER
47
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
286
420
Total Plays
64
59
Yards / Play
4.5
7.1
EPA / Play
-0.16
+0.08
Passing Yards
195
268
Comp/Att
23/37(62%)
18/29(62%)
Yards / Pass
5.3
9.2
EPA / Pass
-0.18
+0.16
Rushing Yards
91
152
Rush Attempts
25
26
Yards / Rush
3.6
5.8
EPA / Rush
-0.11
+0.10
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
16
21
Passing 1st downs
8
13
Rushing 1st downs
7
7
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
31%
42%
3rd Down Conversions
4
5
3rd Down Attempts
13
12
Red Zone %
25%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
1
3
Red Zone Attempts
4
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
3
Interceptions
1
2
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-9.95
-12.68
Sacks
2
4
Sack Yards
-10
-27
Sack EPA
-3.14
-8.64
Penalties
3
5
Penalty Yards
31
31
Penalty EPA
-4.62
-4.67
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
TBBuccaneersFavored
Opening
-6.5
Current
-6.5
Model
-6.5
Win Probability
Market71.0%
Model71.0%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+174
Home nfelo
1,498
Away nfelo
1,411
Home Field
+61.8
Base HFA
+40.2
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+21.6
Net QB Adjustment
+26.1
Home QB Adjustment
+20.4
Away QB Adjustment
-5.6
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
155.5
Model Spread
-6.5
Quarterbacks
A. O'Connell
Proj. Value
-1.3
Team Elo Adj
-5.6
B. Mayfield
Proj. Value
+3.0
Team Elo Adj
+20.4
Team Matchup Ranks
Raiders Offense vs Buccaneers Defense
Total
Points / Game
29
17
Yards / Game
27
19
Passing Yards / Game
9
25
Rushing Yards / Game
32
3
EPA
EPA / Play
31
18
EPA / Pass
24
22
EPA / Rush
32
14
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
11
18
Interceptions / Game
26
29
Fumbles / Game
29
13
Turnover EPA / Game
3
11
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
30
15
4th Down Efficiency
16
24
RZ Efficiency
26
7
Buccaneers Offense vs Raiders Defense
Total
Points / Game
4
25
Yards / Game
3
12
Passing Yards / Game
8
27
Rushing Yards / Game
5
12
EPA
EPA / Play
5
12
EPA / Pass
4
26
EPA / Rush
7
10
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
21
9
Interceptions / Game
24
22
Fumbles / Game
19
31
Turnover EPA / Game
14
5
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
1
17
4th Down Efficiency
8
31
RZ Efficiency
4
22
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Raiders
1-9
SU
4-6
ATS
7-3
O/U
Buccaneers
4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
7-3
O/U