OAKRaiders
1-8
23
TBD
State Farm Stadium
70°F
021
ARICardinals
2-7
TBD
State Farm Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Raiders
7
7
6
3
23
Cardinals
14
0
0
7
21
Spread
+4.5
Total
OVER
41
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
325
282
Total Plays
68
52
Yards / Play
4.8
5.4
EPA / Play
-0.12
-0.26
Passing Yards
173
128
Comp/Att
19/31(61%)
9/20(45%)
Yards / Pass
5.6
6.4
EPA / Pass
+0.01
-0.39
Rushing Yards
152
154
Rush Attempts
33
31
Yards / Rush
4.6
5.0
EPA / Rush
-0.03
-0.12
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
19
13
Passing 1st downs
9
7
Rushing 1st downs
9
5
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
33%
27%
3rd Down Conversions
5
3
3rd Down Attempts
15
11
Red Zone %
33%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
2
Interceptions
0
2
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-10.61
Sacks
4
1
Sack Yards
-19
-8
Sack EPA
-5.87
-1.03
Penalties
4
7
Penalty Yards
20
62
Penalty EPA
-2.72
-5.33
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
ARICardinalsFavored
Opening
-4.0
Current
-4.5
Model
-4.5
Win Probability
Market66.1%
Model66.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+130
Home nfelo
1,417
Away nfelo
1,313
Home Field
+67.9
Base HFA
+57.6
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+10.3
Net QB Adjustment
-41.7
Home QB Adjustment
-45.6
Away QB Adjustment
-3.9
Market Regression
+10.7
Final Difference
116.0
Model Spread
-4.5
Quarterbacks
D. Carr
Proj. Value
+1.0
Team Elo Adj
-3.9
J. Rosen
Proj. Value
-5.8
Team Elo Adj
-45.6
Team Matchup Ranks
Raiders Offense vs Cardinals Defense
Total
Points / Game
28
26
Yards / Game
23
21
Passing Yards / Game
12
14
Rushing Yards / Game
25
32
EPA
EPA / Play
26
14
EPA / Pass
21
12
EPA / Rush
29
29
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
1
4
Interceptions / Game
8
29
Fumbles / Game
31
15
Turnover EPA / Game
5
11
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
19
16
4th Down Efficiency
28
24
RZ Efficiency
22
22
Cardinals Offense vs Raiders Defense
Total
Points / Game
32
32
Yards / Game
32
26
Passing Yards / Game
28
6
Rushing Yards / Game
32
30
EPA
EPA / Play
32
32
EPA / Pass
32
32
EPA / Rush
30
30
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
30
4
Interceptions / Game
28
14
Fumbles / Game
22
31
Turnover EPA / Game
3
5
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
32
30
4th Down Efficiency
32
28
RZ Efficiency
8
18
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Raiders
1-9
SU
2-8
ATS
3-7
O/U
Cardinals
3-7
SU
6-3-1
ATS
4-6
O/U