OAKRaiders
3-0
14
TBD
SoFi Stadium
70°F
028
LACChargers
2-1
TBD
SoFi Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Raiders
0
0
14
0
14
Chargers
7
14
0
7
28
Spread
-3
Total
UNDER
52
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
213
380
Total Plays
56
75
Yards / Play
3.8
5.1
EPA / Play
-0.30
-0.04
Passing Yards
165
212
Comp/Att
21/34(62%)
25/39(64%)
Yards / Pass
4.9
5.4
EPA / Pass
-0.22
+0.06
Rushing Yards
48
168
Rush Attempts
18
34
Yards / Rush
2.7
4.9
EPA / Rush
-0.30
-0.07
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
13
25
Passing 1st downs
8
13
Rushing 1st downs
2
11
Penalty 1st downs
3
1
3rd Down %
31%
31%
3rd Down Conversions
4
4
3rd Down Attempts
13
13
Red Zone %
100%
80%
Red Zone Conversions
2
4
Red Zone Attempts
2
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-4.07
--
Sacks
4
2
Sack Yards
-31
-10
Sack EPA
-6.76
-3.33
Penalties
7
7
Penalty Yards
58
105
Penalty EPA
-2.41
-10.35
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
LACChargersFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.3%
Model59.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+50
Home nfelo
1,528
Away nfelo
1,516
Home Field
+38.2
Base HFA
+42.5
Divisional Adj
-19.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+14.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-0.4
Home QB Adjustment
+11.3
Away QB Adjustment
+11.7
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
65.4
Model Spread
-3.0
Quarterbacks
D. Carr
Proj. Value
+1.0
Team Elo Adj
+11.7
J. Herbert
Proj. Value
+0.3
Team Elo Adj
+11.3
Team Matchup Ranks
Raiders Offense vs Chargers Defense
Total
Points / Game
18
29
Yards / Game
8
23
Passing Yards / Game
2
23
Rushing Yards / Game
28
30
EPA
EPA / Play
19
25
EPA / Pass
15
17
EPA / Rush
28
31
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
13
27
Interceptions / Game
17
22
Fumbles / Game
32
7
Turnover EPA / Game
11
14
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
22
32
4th Down Efficiency
7
1
RZ Efficiency
29
27
Chargers Offense vs Raiders Defense
Total
Points / Game
5
26
Yards / Game
4
14
Passing Yards / Game
5
11
Rushing Yards / Game
21
15
EPA
EPA / Play
7
28
EPA / Pass
7
28
EPA / Rush
16
6
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
14
11
Interceptions / Game
21
32
Fumbles / Game
7
26
Turnover EPA / Game
15
2
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
3
16
4th Down Efficiency
4
32
RZ Efficiency
3
32
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Raiders
5-5
SU
4-6
ATS
8-2
O/U
Chargers
7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
3-7
O/U