OAKRaiders
1-3
29
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
70°F
030
KCChiefs
3-1
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Raiders
7
13
0
9
29
Chiefs
0
10
14
6
30
Spread
+7
Total
OVER
51.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
378
368
Total Plays
57
70
Yards / Play
6.6
5.3
EPA / Play
+0.27
+0.20
Passing Yards
223
265
Comp/Att
19/30(63%)
29/44(66%)
Yards / Pass
7.4
6.0
EPA / Pass
+0.23
+0.32
Rushing Yards
155
103
Rush Attempts
25
23
Yards / Rush
6.2
4.5
EPA / Rush
+0.11
-0.05
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
18
29
Passing 1st downs
6
18
Rushing 1st downs
9
7
Penalty 1st downs
3
4
3rd Down %
42%
58%
3rd Down Conversions
5
7
3rd Down Attempts
12
12
Red Zone %
100%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
1
4
Red Zone Attempts
1
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
--
Sacks
2
3
Sack Yards
-18
-27
Sack EPA
-3.13
-4.90
Penalties
11
5
Penalty Yards
99
72
Penalty EPA
-14.75
-8.23
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
KCChiefsFavored
Opening
-6.5
Current
-7.0
Model
-7.0
Win Probability
Market72.8%
Model72.8%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+134
Home nfelo
1,633
Away nfelo
1,517
Home Field
+7.4
Base HFA
+38.7
Divisional Adj
-17.5
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-13.9
Net QB Adjustment
+11.3
Home QB Adjustment
+6.8
Away QB Adjustment
-4.5
Market Regression
+15.5
Final Difference
171.0
Model Spread
-7.0
Quarterbacks
D. Carr
Proj. Value
+1.0
Team Elo Adj
-4.5
P. Mahomes
Proj. Value
+2.6
Team Elo Adj
+6.8
Team Matchup Ranks
Raiders Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Total
Points / Game
13
18
Yards / Game
12
14
Passing Yards / Game
15
28
Rushing Yards / Game
17
8
EPA
EPA / Play
13
27
EPA / Pass
14
15
EPA / Rush
13
22
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
3
30
Interceptions / Game
28
21
Fumbles / Game
1
2
Turnover EPA / Game
8
13
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
16
22
4th Down Efficiency
9
24
RZ Efficiency
26
28
Chiefs Offense vs Raiders Defense
Total
Points / Game
1
26
Yards / Game
1
27
Passing Yards / Game
12
5
Rushing Yards / Game
20
19
EPA
EPA / Play
1
25
EPA / Pass
1
30
EPA / Rush
6
19
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
31
25
Interceptions / Game
7
31
Fumbles / Game
6
25
Turnover EPA / Game
27
6
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
2
25
4th Down Efficiency
2
20
RZ Efficiency
2
31
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Raiders
5-5
SU
4-6
ATS
5-5
O/U
Chiefs
7-3
SU
5-5
ATS
7-3
O/U