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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. raiders @ chiefs week 7, 2025

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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OAK logo
OAKRaiders
2-4
0
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
57°F
9 mph
31
KCChiefs
3-3
KC logo
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
57°F
9 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Raiders
0
0
0
0
0
Chiefs
7
14
10
0
31

Spread

KC logo
-13.5

Total

UNDER
44.5

Game Statistics

General
Raiders logo
Chiefs logo
Total Yards
95
434
Total Plays
30
77
Yards / Play
3.2
5.6
EPA / Play
-0.53
+0.24
Passing Yards
70
282
Comp/Att
12/18(67%)
26/35(74%)
Yards / Pass
3.9
8.1
EPA / Pass
-0.58
+0.55
Rushing Yards
25
152
Rush Attempts
11
41
Yards / Rush
2.3
3.7
EPA / Rush
-0.87
-0.07
Downs & Conversions
Raiders logo
Chiefs logo
1st Downs
3
30
Passing 1st downs
2
16
Rushing 1st downs
--
12
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
0%
60%
3rd Down Conversions
--
9
3rd Down Attempts
7
15
Red Zone %
NaN%
80%
Red Zone Conversions
--
4
Red Zone Attempts
--
5
Negative Plays
Raiders logo
Chiefs logo
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-5.25
--
Sacks
1
1
Sack Yards
-5
-4
Sack EPA
-1.70
-0.95
Penalties
8
5
Penalty Yards
58
38
Penalty EPA
-8.00
-5.57

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
KC logo
KCChiefsFavored
Opening
-11.5
Current
-13.5
Model
-13.5

Win Probability

Market86.2%
Model86.0%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+265
Home nfelo
1,602
Away nfelo
1,412
Home Field
+37.0
Base HFA
+40.8
Divisional Adj
-18.4
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+14.6
Net QB Adjustment
+38.0
Home QB Adjustment
+23.7
Away QB Adjustment
-14.2
Market Regression
+44.9
Final Difference
315.5
Model Spread
-13.5

Quarterbacks

E. Smith headshot

E. Smith

Proj. Value
-2.7
Team Elo Adj
-14.2
Value
Ptile
12/15
-5.9
12
12/22
3.7
74
12/26
-2.8
30
01/05
5.7
83
09/07
0.7
57
09/15
-10.7
2
09/21
1.3
60
09/28
-3.7
25
10/05
-7.1
8
10/12
-4.2
22
P. Mahomes headshot

P. Mahomes

Proj. Value
+1.3
Team Elo Adj
+23.7
Value
Ptile
12/25
11.3
98
01/18
0.2
50
01/26
7.0
90
02/09
-2.5
32
09/05
5.7
88
09/14
2.5
68
09/21
-2.6
33
09/28
7.3
93
10/06
9.5
97
10/12
7.1
92

Team Matchup Ranks

Raiders Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Raiders logo
Chiefs logo

Total

Points / Game
32
7
Yards / Game
32
11
Passing Yards / Game
20
13
Rushing Yards / Game
32
9

EPA

EPA / Play
31
21
EPA / Pass
28
18
EPA / Rush
32
14

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
5
13
Interceptions / Game
31
20
Fumbles / Game
2
29
Turnover EPA / Game
4
4

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
28
29
4th Down Efficiency
29
1
RZ Efficiency
25
13
Chiefs Offense vs Raiders Defense
Chiefs logo
Raiders logo

Total

Points / Game
21
26
Yards / Game
17
16
Passing Yards / Game
9
17
Rushing Yards / Game
24
18

EPA

EPA / Play
9
23
EPA / Pass
11
26
EPA / Rush
5
8

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
9
1
Interceptions / Game
22
25
Fumbles / Game
1
20
Turnover EPA / Game
29
8

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
18
32
4th Down Efficiency
2
21
RZ Efficiency
12
23

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

OAK logo

Raiders

4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/16
-6
L
W
U
12/22
5
W
W
U
12/29
15
W
W
U
01/05
-14
L
L
O
09/07
7
W
W
U
09/15
-11
L
L
U
09/21
-17
L
L
O
09/28
-1
L
L
O
10/05
-34
L
L
U
10/12
10
W
W
U
KC logo

Chiefs

5-5
SU
4-6
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
01/05
-38
L
L
U
01/18
9
W
L
U
01/26
3
W
W
O
02/09
-18
L
L
O
09/05
-6
L
L
O
09/14
-3
L
L
U
09/21
13
W
W
U
09/28
17
W
W
O
10/06
-3
L
L
O
10/12
13
W
W
U