OAKRaiders
2-4
0
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
57°F
9 mph
31
KCChiefs
3-3
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
57°F
9 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Raiders
0
0
0
0
0
Chiefs
7
14
10
0
31
Spread
-13.5
Total
UNDER
44.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
95
434
Total Plays
30
77
Yards / Play
3.2
5.6
EPA / Play
-0.53
+0.24
Passing Yards
70
282
Comp/Att
12/18(67%)
26/35(74%)
Yards / Pass
3.9
8.1
EPA / Pass
-0.58
+0.55
Rushing Yards
25
152
Rush Attempts
11
41
Yards / Rush
2.3
3.7
EPA / Rush
-0.87
-0.07
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
3
30
Passing 1st downs
2
16
Rushing 1st downs
--
12
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
0%
60%
3rd Down Conversions
--
9
3rd Down Attempts
7
15
Red Zone %
NaN%
80%
Red Zone Conversions
--
4
Red Zone Attempts
--
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-5.25
--
Sacks
1
1
Sack Yards
-5
-4
Sack EPA
-1.70
-0.95
Penalties
8
5
Penalty Yards
58
38
Penalty EPA
-8.00
-5.57
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
KCChiefsFavored
Opening
-11.5
Current
-13.5
Model
-13.5
Win Probability
Market86.2%
Model86.0%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+265
Home nfelo
1,602
Away nfelo
1,412
Home Field
+37.0
Base HFA
+40.8
Divisional Adj
-18.4
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+14.6
Net QB Adjustment
+38.0
Home QB Adjustment
+23.7
Away QB Adjustment
-14.2
Market Regression
+44.9
Final Difference
315.5
Model Spread
-13.5
Quarterbacks
E. Smith
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
-14.2
P. Mahomes
Proj. Value
+2.7
Team Elo Adj
+23.7
Team Matchup Ranks
Raiders Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Total
Points / Game
30
4
Yards / Game
30
7
Passing Yards / Game
19
25
Rushing Yards / Game
30
9
EPA
EPA / Play
29
17
EPA / Pass
29
12
EPA / Rush
32
23
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
7
20
Interceptions / Game
31
17
Fumbles / Game
3
24
Turnover EPA / Game
4
9
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
21
23
4th Down Efficiency
29
1
RZ Efficiency
30
10
Chiefs Offense vs Raiders Defense
Total
Points / Game
9
24
Yards / Game
7
17
Passing Yards / Game
6
26
Rushing Yards / Game
16
15
EPA
EPA / Play
3
15
EPA / Pass
6
24
EPA / Rush
3
7
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
15
7
Interceptions / Game
10
17
Fumbles / Game
1
11
Turnover EPA / Game
26
17
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
9
30
4th Down Efficiency
3
27
RZ Efficiency
7
16
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Raiders
4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
3-7
O/U
Chiefs
5-5
SU
4-6
ATS
5-5
O/U