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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. raiders @ chiefs week 13, 2019

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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OAK logo
OAKRaiders
6-5
9
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
36°F
20 mph
40
KCChiefs
7-4
KC logo
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
36°F
20 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Raiders
0
0
0
9
9
Chiefs
7
8
10
7
32

Spread

KC logo
-11

Total

UNDER
49.5

Game Statistics

General
Raiders logo
Chiefs logo
Total Yards
332
259
Total Plays
57
59
Yards / Play
5.8
4.4
EPA / Play
-0.36
+0.24
Passing Yards
210
163
Comp/Att
20/30(67%)
15/29(52%)
Yards / Pass
7.0
5.6
EPA / Pass
-0.16
+0.17
Rushing Yards
122
96
Rush Attempts
25
29
Yards / Rush
4.9
3.3
EPA / Rush
-0.01
-0.09
Downs & Conversions
Raiders logo
Chiefs logo
1st Downs
19
22
Passing 1st downs
11
10
Rushing 1st downs
8
8
Penalty 1st downs
--
4
3rd Down %
33%
64%
3rd Down Conversions
3
7
3rd Down Attempts
9
11
Red Zone %
33%
80%
Red Zone Conversions
1
4
Red Zone Attempts
3
5
Negative Plays
Raiders logo
Chiefs logo
Turnovers
3
0
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-17.86
--
Sacks
2
1
Sack Yards
-12
-12
Sack EPA
-2.76
-1.26
Penalties
12
--
Penalty Yards
99
--
Penalty EPA
-14.10
--

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
KC logo
KCChiefsFavored
Opening
-10.0
Current
-11.0
Model
-11.0

Win Probability

Market81.7%
Model81.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+212
Home nfelo
1,589
Away nfelo
1,439
Home Field
+49.2
Base HFA
+48.9
Divisional Adj
-22.1
Home Bye Adj
+14.0
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+17.1
Time Adj
-8.8
Net QB Adjustment
+12.3
Home QB Adjustment
+18.6
Away QB Adjustment
+6.3
Market Regression
+22.0
Final Difference
257.4
Model Spread
-11.0

Quarterbacks

D. Carr headshot

D. Carr

Proj. Value
+0.8
Team Elo Adj
+6.3
Value
Ptile
09/15
-5.5
17
09/22
0.5
55
09/29
0.5
55
10/06
3.8
77
10/20
4.9
83
10/27
4.1
79
11/03
2.6
69
11/07
-0.9
47
11/17
0.3
54
11/24
-6.0
15
P. Mahomes headshot

P. Mahomes

Proj. Value
+1.3
Team Elo Adj
+18.6
Value
Ptile
01/20
1.2
55
09/08
10.6
98
09/15
10.0
97
09/22
10.0
96
09/29
4.6
82
10/06
-1.2
45
10/13
0.0
52
10/17
-0.3
50
11/10
11.0
99
11/18
0.9
59

Team Matchup Ranks

Raiders Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Raiders logo
Chiefs logo

Total

Points / Game
24
10
Yards / Game
12
17
Passing Yards / Game
24
15
Rushing Yards / Game
13
25

EPA

EPA / Play
14
16
EPA / Pass
6
9
EPA / Rush
21
30

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
7
28
Interceptions / Game
7
4
Fumbles / Game
18
24
Turnover EPA / Game
15
22

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
7
10
4th Down Efficiency
7
17
RZ Efficiency
22
10
Chiefs Offense vs Raiders Defense
Chiefs logo
Raiders logo

Total

Points / Game
2
24
Yards / Game
4
19
Passing Yards / Game
5
16
Rushing Yards / Game
22
6

EPA

EPA / Play
2
31
EPA / Pass
2
31
EPA / Rush
7
18

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
22
27
Interceptions / Game
3
29
Fumbles / Game
14
30
Turnover EPA / Game
29
5

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
3
26
4th Down Efficiency
3
32
RZ Efficiency
11
31

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

OAK logo

Raiders

5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/15
-18
L
L
U
09/22
-20
L
L
O
09/29
7
W
W
O
10/06
3
W
W
O
10/20
-18
L
L
O
10/27
-3
L
W
U
11/03
7
W
W
O
11/07
2
W
W
O
11/17
7
W
L
U
11/24
-31
L
L
U
KC logo

Chiefs

6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/15
18
W
W
U
09/22
5
W
W
O
09/29
4
W
L
O
10/06
-6
L
L
U
10/13
-7
L
L
O
10/17
24
W
W
U
10/27
-7
L
L
O
11/03
3
W
W
O
11/10
-3
L
L
O
11/18
7
W
W
U