OAKRaiders
6-5
9
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
36°F
20 mph
40
KCChiefs
7-4
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
36°F
20 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Raiders
0
0
0
9
9
Chiefs
7
8
10
7
32
Spread
-11
Total
UNDER
49.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
332
259
Total Plays
57
59
Yards / Play
5.8
4.4
EPA / Play
-0.36
+0.24
Passing Yards
210
163
Comp/Att
20/30(67%)
15/29(52%)
Yards / Pass
7.0
5.6
EPA / Pass
-0.16
+0.17
Rushing Yards
122
96
Rush Attempts
25
29
Yards / Rush
4.9
3.3
EPA / Rush
-0.01
-0.09
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
19
22
Passing 1st downs
11
10
Rushing 1st downs
8
8
Penalty 1st downs
--
4
3rd Down %
33%
64%
3rd Down Conversions
3
7
3rd Down Attempts
9
11
Red Zone %
33%
80%
Red Zone Conversions
1
4
Red Zone Attempts
3
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
0
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-17.86
--
Sacks
2
1
Sack Yards
-12
-12
Sack EPA
-2.76
-1.26
Penalties
12
--
Penalty Yards
99
--
Penalty EPA
-14.10
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
KCChiefsFavored
Opening
-10.0
Current
-11.0
Model
-11.0
Win Probability
Market81.7%
Model81.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+214
Home nfelo
1,595
Away nfelo
1,441
Home Field
+48.8
Base HFA
+48.5
Divisional Adj
-21.9
Home Bye Adj
+13.9
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+16.9
Time Adj
-8.7
Net QB Adjustment
+12.3
Home QB Adjustment
+18.6
Away QB Adjustment
+6.3
Market Regression
+24.5
Final Difference
259.9
Model Spread
-11.0
Quarterbacks
D. Carr
Proj. Value
+1.0
Team Elo Adj
+6.3
P. Mahomes
Proj. Value
+2.6
Team Elo Adj
+18.6
Team Matchup Ranks
Raiders Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Total
Points / Game
24
10
Yards / Game
12
17
Passing Yards / Game
24
15
Rushing Yards / Game
13
25
EPA
EPA / Play
14
16
EPA / Pass
6
9
EPA / Rush
21
30
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
7
28
Interceptions / Game
7
4
Fumbles / Game
18
24
Turnover EPA / Game
15
22
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
7
10
4th Down Efficiency
7
17
RZ Efficiency
22
10
Chiefs Offense vs Raiders Defense
Total
Points / Game
2
24
Yards / Game
4
19
Passing Yards / Game
5
16
Rushing Yards / Game
22
6
EPA
EPA / Play
2
31
EPA / Pass
2
31
EPA / Rush
7
18
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
22
27
Interceptions / Game
3
29
Fumbles / Game
14
30
Turnover EPA / Game
29
5
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
3
26
4th Down Efficiency
3
32
RZ Efficiency
11
31
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Raiders
5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U
Chiefs
6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U