OAKRaiders
7-7
16
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
38°F
7 mph
13
KCChiefs
6-8
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
38°F
7 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
OT
Total
Raiders
3
0
7
3
3
16
Chiefs
3
0
3
7
0
13
Spread
+3
Total
UNDER
43
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
308
435
Total Plays
51
66
Yards / Play
6.0
6.6
EPA / Play
-0.01
-0.09
Passing Yards
--
--
Comp/Att
16/26(62%)
21/36(58%)
Yards / Pass
--
--
EPA / Pass
+0.21
+0.01
Rushing Yards
71
135
Rush Attempts
25
30
Yards / Rush
2.8
4.5
EPA / Rush
-0.34
-0.13
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
13
26
Passing 1st downs
10
14
Rushing 1st downs
1
7
Penalty 1st downs
2
5
3rd Down %
27%
25%
3rd Down Conversions
3
3
3rd Down Attempts
11
12
Red Zone %
0%
25%
Red Zone Conversions
--
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
2
Interceptions
2
2
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-8.10
-10.53
Sacks
--
--
Sack Yards
--
--
Sack EPA
--
--
Penalties
15
11
Penalty Yards
92
88
Penalty EPA
-8.94
-14.26
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
KCChiefsFavored
Opening
-1.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.3%
Model59.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+66
Home nfelo
1,467
Away nfelo
1,486
Home Field
+56.7
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+22.4
Net QB Adjustment
+28.6
Home QB Adjustment
+46.6
Away QB Adjustment
+17.9
Market Regression
+39.7
Final Difference
65.4
Model Spread
-3.0
Quarterbacks
C. Palmer
Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
+17.9
K. Orton
Proj. Value
-0.9
Team Elo Adj
+46.6
Team Matchup Ranks
Raiders Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Total
Points / Game
16
13
Yards / Game
9
11
Passing Yards / Game
26
2
Rushing Yards / Game
6
26
EPA
EPA / Play
10
21
EPA / Pass
13
22
EPA / Rush
8
16
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
17
20
Interceptions / Game
27
5
Fumbles / Game
6
18
Turnover EPA / Game
11
11
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
21
5
4th Down Efficiency
8
18
RZ Efficiency
23
20
Chiefs Offense vs Raiders Defense
Total
Points / Game
31
29
Yards / Game
27
29
Passing Yards / Game
28
16
Rushing Yards / Game
15
27
EPA
EPA / Play
29
30
EPA / Pass
21
25
EPA / Rush
31
29
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
4
30
Interceptions / Game
23
10
Fumbles / Game
6
26
Turnover EPA / Game
14
20
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
20
25
4th Down Efficiency
15
5
RZ Efficiency
32
23
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Raiders
5-5
SU
5-4-1
ATS
6-4
O/U
Chiefs
5-5
SU
6-4
ATS
2-8
O/U