OAKRaiders
6-8
20
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
38°F
11 mph
14
KCChiefs
9-5
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
38°F
11 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Raiders
3
2
3
0
8
Chiefs
0
7
0
7
14
Spread
+11
Total
UNDER
40.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
207
308
Total Plays
54
74
Yards / Play
3.8
4.2
EPA / Play
-0.18
-0.24
Passing Yards
48
223
Comp/Att
9/21(43%)
28/45(62%)
Yards / Pass
2.3
5.0
EPA / Pass
-0.62
-0.26
Rushing Yards
159
85
Rush Attempts
31
25
Yards / Rush
5.1
3.4
EPA / Rush
+0.00
-0.27
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
12
19
Passing 1st downs
3
11
Rushing 1st downs
8
6
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
25%
31%
3rd Down Conversions
3
5
3rd Down Attempts
12
16
Red Zone %
0%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
--
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
2
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-14.57
Sacks
2
4
Sack Yards
-14
-23
Sack EPA
-3.89
-6.22
Penalties
4
5
Penalty Yards
20
44
Penalty EPA
-5.31
-4.52
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
KCChiefsFavored
Opening
-10.5
Current
-11.0
Model
-11.0
Win Probability
Market81.7%
Model81.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+257
Home nfelo
1,668
Away nfelo
1,469
Home Field
+41.2
Base HFA
+45.4
Divisional Adj
-20.5
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+16.3
Net QB Adjustment
+17.1
Home QB Adjustment
-18.7
Away QB Adjustment
-35.8
Market Regression
+12.5
Final Difference
259.9
Model Spread
-11.0
Quarterbacks
A. O'Connell
Proj. Value
-1.3
Team Elo Adj
-35.8
P. Mahomes
Proj. Value
+2.6
Team Elo Adj
-18.7
Team Matchup Ranks
Raiders Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Total
Points / Game
23
2
Yards / Game
27
5
Passing Yards / Game
32
11
Rushing Yards / Game
30
17
EPA
EPA / Play
24
7
EPA / Pass
22
4
EPA / Rush
26
25
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
20
31
Interceptions / Game
28
27
Fumbles / Game
10
5
Turnover EPA / Game
13
9
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
24
5
4th Down Efficiency
6
19
RZ Efficiency
24
8
Chiefs Offense vs Raiders Defense
Total
Points / Game
14
7
Yards / Game
8
14
Passing Yards / Game
11
27
Rushing Yards / Game
17
20
EPA
EPA / Play
10
5
EPA / Pass
13
9
EPA / Rush
16
12
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
30
20
Interceptions / Game
21
17
Fumbles / Game
21
21
Turnover EPA / Game
12
24
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
6
25
4th Down Efficiency
12
23
RZ Efficiency
20
27
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Raiders
5-5
SU
6-3-1
ATS
3-7
O/U
Chiefs
6-4
SU
5-4-1
ATS
3-7
O/U