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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. raiders @ chiefs week 17, 2018

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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OAK logo
OAKRaiders
4-11
3
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
45°F
15 mph
35
KCChiefs
11-4
KC logo
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
45°F
15 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Raiders
0
3
0
0
3
Chiefs
8
7
7
7
29

Spread

KC logo
-14

Total

UNDER
54

Game Statistics

General
Raiders logo
Chiefs logo
Total Yards
292
409
Total Plays
65
54
Yards / Play
4.5
7.6
EPA / Play
-0.32
+0.26
Passing Yards
165
--
Comp/Att
24/33(73%)
16/27(59%)
Yards / Pass
5.0
--
EPA / Pass
-0.49
+0.61
Rushing Yards
127
99
Rush Attempts
29
27
Yards / Rush
4.4
3.7
EPA / Rush
-0.19
-0.06
Downs & Conversions
Raiders logo
Chiefs logo
1st Downs
20
18
Passing 1st downs
11
11
Rushing 1st downs
9
7
Penalty 1st downs
--
--
3rd Down %
40%
56%
3rd Down Conversions
4
5
3rd Down Attempts
10
9
Red Zone %
NaN%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
--
2
Red Zone Attempts
--
3
Negative Plays
Raiders logo
Chiefs logo
Turnovers
4
1
Interceptions
2
1
Fumbles
2
0
Turnover EPA
-28.90
-1.17
Sacks
3
--
Sack Yards
-20
--
Sack EPA
-8.03
--
Penalties
4
4
Penalty Yards
22
50
Penalty EPA
-3.56
+8.59

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
KC logo
KCChiefsFavored
Opening
-13.5
Current
-14.0
Model
-14.0

Win Probability

Market87.3%
Model87.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+306
Home nfelo
1,596
Away nfelo
1,355
Home Field
+21.7
Base HFA
+58.5
Divisional Adj
-26.4
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-10.5
Net QB Adjustment
+42.5
Home QB Adjustment
+37.5
Away QB Adjustment
-5.0
Market Regression
+16.6
Final Difference
334.9
Model Spread
-14.0

Quarterbacks

D. Carr headshot

D. Carr

Proj. Value
+0.8
Team Elo Adj
-5.0
Value
Ptile
10/14
-4.1
22
10/28
8.4
93
11/01
-8.1
8
11/11
-2.9
28
11/18
-1.8
34
11/25
-4.7
19
12/02
5.9
84
12/09
3.4
71
12/16
-4.7
19
12/24
-1.8
34
P. Mahomes headshot

P. Mahomes

Proj. Value
+1.3
Team Elo Adj
+37.5
Value
Ptile
10/14
6.2
86
10/21
9.8
95
10/28
6.1
85
11/04
7.1
90
11/11
1.7
60
11/19
10.2
96
12/02
9.7
95
12/09
3.4
71
12/13
3.4
72
12/23
5.8
84

Team Matchup Ranks

Raiders Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Raiders logo
Chiefs logo

Total

Points / Game
28
24
Yards / Game
23
31
Passing Yards / Game
12
30
Rushing Yards / Game
25
27

EPA

EPA / Play
26
25
EPA / Pass
21
16
EPA / Rush
29
31

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
1
28
Interceptions / Game
8
9
Fumbles / Game
31
7
Turnover EPA / Game
5
31

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
19
26
4th Down Efficiency
28
28
RZ Efficiency
22
29
Chiefs Offense vs Raiders Defense
Chiefs logo
Raiders logo

Total

Points / Game
1
32
Yards / Game
1
26
Passing Yards / Game
7
6
Rushing Yards / Game
15
30

EPA

EPA / Play
1
32
EPA / Pass
1
32
EPA / Rush
1
30

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
29
4
Interceptions / Game
10
14
Fumbles / Game
12
31
Turnover EPA / Game
29
5

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
3
30
4th Down Efficiency
4
28
RZ Efficiency
1
18

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

OAK logo

Raiders

3-7
SU
4-6
ATS
4-5-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/14
-24
L
L
U
10/28
-14
L
L
O
11/01
-31
L
L
U
11/11
-14
L
L
U
11/18
2
W
W
O
11/25
-17
L
L
O
12/02
-7
L
W
O
12/09
3
W
W
U
12/16
-14
L
L
P
12/24
13
W
W
U
KC logo

Chiefs

6-4
SU
3-6-1
ATS
7-2-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/14
-3
L
W
O
10/21
35
W
W
U
10/28
7
W
L
P
11/04
16
W
W
O
11/11
12
W
L
U
11/19
-3
L
P
O
12/02
7
W
L
O
12/09
3
W
L
O
12/13
-1
L
L
O
12/23
-7
L
L
O