OAKRaiders
4-11
3
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
45°F
15 mph
35
KCChiefs
11-4
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
45°F
15 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Raiders
0
3
0
0
3
Chiefs
8
7
7
7
29
Spread
-14
Total
UNDER
54
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
292
409
Total Plays
65
54
Yards / Play
4.5
7.6
EPA / Play
-0.32
+0.26
Passing Yards
165
--
Comp/Att
24/33(73%)
16/27(59%)
Yards / Pass
5.0
--
EPA / Pass
-0.49
+0.61
Rushing Yards
127
99
Rush Attempts
29
27
Yards / Rush
4.4
3.7
EPA / Rush
-0.19
-0.06
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
20
18
Passing 1st downs
11
11
Rushing 1st downs
9
7
Penalty 1st downs
--
--
3rd Down %
40%
56%
3rd Down Conversions
4
5
3rd Down Attempts
10
9
Red Zone %
NaN%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
--
2
Red Zone Attempts
--
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
4
1
Interceptions
2
1
Fumbles
2
0
Turnover EPA
-28.90
-1.17
Sacks
3
--
Sack Yards
-20
--
Sack EPA
-8.03
--
Penalties
4
4
Penalty Yards
22
50
Penalty EPA
-3.56
+8.59
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
KCChiefsFavored
Opening
-13.5
Current
-14.0
Model
-14.0
Win Probability
Market87.3%
Model87.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+310
Home nfelo
1,598
Away nfelo
1,353
Home Field
+21.4
Base HFA
+57.9
Divisional Adj
-26.1
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-10.3
Net QB Adjustment
+42.5
Home QB Adjustment
+37.5
Away QB Adjustment
-5.0
Market Regression
+16.6
Final Difference
334.9
Model Spread
-14.0
Quarterbacks
D. Carr
Proj. Value
+1.0
Team Elo Adj
-5.0
P. Mahomes
Proj. Value
+2.6
Team Elo Adj
+37.5
Team Matchup Ranks
Raiders Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Total
Points / Game
28
24
Yards / Game
23
31
Passing Yards / Game
12
30
Rushing Yards / Game
25
27
EPA
EPA / Play
26
25
EPA / Pass
21
16
EPA / Rush
29
31
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
1
28
Interceptions / Game
8
9
Fumbles / Game
31
7
Turnover EPA / Game
5
31
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
19
26
4th Down Efficiency
28
28
RZ Efficiency
22
29
Chiefs Offense vs Raiders Defense
Total
Points / Game
1
32
Yards / Game
1
26
Passing Yards / Game
7
6
Rushing Yards / Game
15
30
EPA
EPA / Play
1
32
EPA / Pass
1
32
EPA / Rush
1
30
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
29
4
Interceptions / Game
10
14
Fumbles / Game
12
31
Turnover EPA / Game
29
5
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
3
30
4th Down Efficiency
4
28
RZ Efficiency
1
18
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Raiders
3-7
SU
4-6
ATS
4-5-1
O/U
Chiefs
6-4
SU
3-6-1
ATS
7-2-1
O/U