OAKRaiders
0-2
20
TBD
Hard Rock Stadium
90°F
7 mph
28
MIADolphins
2-0
TBD
Hard Rock Stadium
90°F
7 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Raiders
7
3
7
3
20
Dolphins
0
7
7
14
28
Spread
-3
Total
OVER
46
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
434
373
Total Plays
74
39
Yards / Play
5.9
9.6
EPA / Play
+0.06
+0.29
Passing Yards
325
332
Comp/Att
27/39(69%)
18/24(75%)
Yards / Pass
8.3
13.8
EPA / Pass
+0.24
+0.67
Rushing Yards
109
41
Rush Attempts
32
14
Yards / Rush
3.4
2.9
EPA / Rush
-0.13
-0.32
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
25
13
Passing 1st downs
17
11
Rushing 1st downs
5
2
Penalty 1st downs
3
--
3rd Down %
54%
25%
3rd Down Conversions
7
2
3rd Down Attempts
13
8
Red Zone %
40%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
5
1
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-10.08
--
Sacks
3
1
Sack Yards
-20
-9
Sack EPA
-1.41
-1.65
Penalties
8
9
Penalty Yards
38
74
Penalty EPA
-7.59
-7.84
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
MIADolphinsFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.3%
Model61.0%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+125
Home nfelo
1,439
Away nfelo
1,407
Home Field
+87.0
Base HFA
+56.6
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+30.4
Net QB Adjustment
+6.3
Home QB Adjustment
+11.7
Away QB Adjustment
+5.4
Market Regression
-11.2
Final Difference
77.6
Model Spread
-3.0
Quarterbacks
D. Carr
Proj. Value
+1.0
Team Elo Adj
+5.4
R. Tannehill
Proj. Value
-2.2
Team Elo Adj
+11.7
Team Matchup Ranks
Raiders Offense vs Dolphins Defense
Total
Points / Game
28
27
Yards / Game
23
29
Passing Yards / Game
12
13
Rushing Yards / Game
25
31
EPA
EPA / Play
26
23
EPA / Pass
21
25
EPA / Rush
29
24
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
1
4
Interceptions / Game
8
2
Fumbles / Game
31
28
Turnover EPA / Game
5
27
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
19
28
4th Down Efficiency
28
3
RZ Efficiency
22
20
Dolphins Offense vs Raiders Defense
Total
Points / Game
26
32
Yards / Game
31
26
Passing Yards / Game
29
6
Rushing Yards / Game
19
30
EPA
EPA / Play
28
32
EPA / Pass
29
32
EPA / Rush
27
30
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
3
4
Interceptions / Game
17
14
Fumbles / Game
29
31
Turnover EPA / Game
11
5
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
31
30
4th Down Efficiency
8
28
RZ Efficiency
27
18
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Raiders
3-7
SU
3-5-2
ATS
1-9
O/U
Dolphins
4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
6-4
O/U