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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. raiders @ eagles week 16, 2017

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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OAK logo
OAKRaiders
6-8
10
TBD
Lincoln Financial Field
29°F
15 mph
19
PHIEagles
12-2
PHI logo
TBD
Lincoln Financial Field
29°F
15 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Raiders
0
7
3
0
10
Eagles
7
0
3
3
13

Spread

OAK logo
+10

Total

UNDER
46

Game Statistics

General
Raiders logo
Eagles logo
Total Yards
274
216
Total Plays
63
62
Yards / Play
4.3
3.5
EPA / Play
-0.56
-0.45
Passing Yards
137
138
Comp/Att
15/29(52%)
19/38(50%)
Yards / Pass
4.7
3.6
EPA / Pass
-0.70
-0.43
Rushing Yards
137
78
Rush Attempts
33
22
Yards / Rush
4.2
3.5
EPA / Rush
-0.33
-0.33
Downs & Conversions
Raiders logo
Eagles logo
1st Downs
13
12
Passing 1st downs
4
7
Rushing 1st downs
6
3
Penalty 1st downs
3
2
3rd Down %
23%
7%
3rd Down Conversions
3
1
3rd Down Attempts
13
14
Red Zone %
0%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
--
1
Red Zone Attempts
1
3
Negative Plays
Raiders logo
Eagles logo
Turnovers
5
2
Interceptions
2
1
Fumbles
3
1
Turnover EPA
-25.31
-9.38
Sacks
1
2
Sack Yards
-3
-25
Sack EPA
-1.85
-4.16
Penalties
7
8
Penalty Yards
50
60
Penalty EPA
-7.07
-8.04

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
PHI logo
PHIEaglesFavored
Opening
-9.0
Current
-10.0
Model
-10.0

Win Probability

Market79.5%
Model79.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+206
Home nfelo
1,681
Away nfelo
1,421
Home Field
+26.2
Base HFA
+56.6
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-30.4
Net QB Adjustment
-80.1
Home QB Adjustment
-78.3
Away QB Adjustment
+1.8
Market Regression
+18.6
Final Difference
235.4
Model Spread
-10.0

Quarterbacks

D. Carr headshot

D. Carr

Proj. Value
+0.8
Team Elo Adj
+1.8
Value
Ptile
10/01
-2.7
34
10/15
-3.2
30
10/19
9.7
97
10/29
1.0
60
11/05
0.7
57
11/19
-2.6
35
11/26
2.7
71
12/03
1.3
62
12/10
-6.8
13
12/17
3.0
74
N. Foles headshot

N. Foles

Proj. Value
-2.6
Team Elo Adj
-78.3
Value
Ptile
10/04
2.6
69
10/11
-14.0
0
10/25
-3.9
22
11/01
-0.7
46
11/08
-3.7
24
11/15
-6.8
8
11/29
-5.2
14
12/06
-7.3
6
11/06
-3.2
25
12/17
4.4
82

Team Matchup Ranks

Raiders Offense vs Eagles Defense
Raiders logo
Eagles logo

Total

Points / Game
22
4
Yards / Game
18
9
Passing Yards / Game
30
26
Rushing Yards / Game
25
1

EPA

EPA / Play
15
5
EPA / Pass
16
7
EPA / Rush
22
6

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
8
22
Interceptions / Game
20
6
Fumbles / Game
31
2
Turnover EPA / Game
13
29

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
11
3
4th Down Efficiency
27
2
RZ Efficiency
8
12
Eagles Offense vs Raiders Defense
Eagles logo
Raiders logo

Total

Points / Game
1
20
Yards / Game
4
24
Passing Yards / Game
7
23
Rushing Yards / Game
3
11

EPA

EPA / Play
4
31
EPA / Pass
2
31
EPA / Rush
11
22

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
15
30
Interceptions / Game
4
32
Fumbles / Game
22
18
Turnover EPA / Game
29
2

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
2
25
4th Down Efficiency
3
30
RZ Efficiency
2
8

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

OAK logo

Raiders

4-6
SU
2-6-2
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/08
-13
L
L
O
10/15
-1
L
L
U
10/19
1
W
W
O
10/29
-20
L
L
O
11/05
3
W
P
O
11/19
-25
L
L
U
11/26
7
W
W
U
12/03
7
W
L
U
12/10
-11
L
L
U
12/17
-3
L
P
U
PHI logo

Eagles

9-1
SU
8-2
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/08
27
W
W
U
10/12
5
W
W
O
10/23
10
W
W
O
10/29
23
W
W
U
11/05
28
W
W
O
11/19
28
W
W
U
11/26
28
W
W
U
12/03
-14
L
L
U
12/10
8
W
W
O
12/17
5
W
L
O