OAKRaiders
5-2
16
TBD
MetLife Stadium
54°F
4 mph
23
NYGGiants
2-6
TBD
MetLife Stadium
54°F
4 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Raiders
7
6
3
0
16
Giants
7
3
1
6
17
Spread
+3
Total
UNDER
47
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
403
247
Total Plays
67
54
Yards / Play
6.0
4.6
EPA / Play
-0.12
-0.02
Passing Yards
286
98
Comp/Att
30/46(65%)
15/20(75%)
Yards / Pass
6.2
4.9
EPA / Pass
-0.16
-0.10
Rushing Yards
117
149
Rush Attempts
20
31
Yards / Rush
5.8
4.8
EPA / Rush
+0.21
-0.02
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
24
16
Passing 1st downs
15
6
Rushing 1st downs
8
8
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
33%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
4
6
3rd Down Attempts
12
12
Red Zone %
17%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
1
--
Red Zone Attempts
6
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
1
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-14.66
-5.76
Sacks
1
3
Sack Yards
-10
-12
Sack EPA
-4.24
-7.86
Penalties
6
4
Penalty Yards
65
35
Penalty EPA
-4.92
-1.78
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
OAKRaidersFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.7%
Model59.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-53
Home nfelo
1,417
Away nfelo
1,506
Home Field
+45.0
Base HFA
+40.6
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
-31.6
Surface Adj
+14.2
Time Adj
+21.8
Net QB Adjustment
-9.0
Home QB Adjustment
-1.3
Away QB Adjustment
+7.6
Market Regression
-22.1
Final Difference
-68.3
Model Spread
+3.0
Quarterbacks
D. Carr
Proj. Value
+1.0
Team Elo Adj
+7.6
D. Jones
Proj. Value
-1.7
Team Elo Adj
-1.3
Team Matchup Ranks
Raiders Offense vs Giants Defense
Total
Points / Game
18
23
Yards / Game
8
21
Passing Yards / Game
2
17
Rushing Yards / Game
28
25
EPA
EPA / Play
19
20
EPA / Pass
15
19
EPA / Rush
28
28
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
13
16
Interceptions / Game
17
13
Fumbles / Game
32
18
Turnover EPA / Game
11
13
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
22
17
4th Down Efficiency
7
29
RZ Efficiency
29
5
Giants Offense vs Raiders Defense
Total
Points / Game
31
26
Yards / Game
31
14
Passing Yards / Game
32
11
Rushing Yards / Game
23
15
EPA
EPA / Play
31
28
EPA / Pass
31
28
EPA / Rush
24
6
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
9
11
Interceptions / Game
29
32
Fumbles / Game
25
26
Turnover EPA / Game
2
2
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
24
16
4th Down Efficiency
26
32
RZ Efficiency
32
32
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Raiders
6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
7-3
O/U
Giants
3-7
SU
5-5
ATS
3-7
O/U