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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. raiders @ giants week 9, 2021

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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OAK logo
OAKRaiders
5-2
16
TBD
MetLife Stadium
54°F
4 mph
23
NYGGiants
2-6
NYG logo
TBD
MetLife Stadium
54°F
4 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Raiders
7
6
3
0
16
Giants
7
3
1
6
17

Spread

NYG logo
+3

Total

UNDER
47

Game Statistics

General
Raiders logo
Giants logo
Total Yards
403
247
Total Plays
67
54
Yards / Play
6.0
4.6
EPA / Play
-0.12
-0.02
Passing Yards
286
98
Comp/Att
30/46(65%)
15/20(75%)
Yards / Pass
6.2
4.9
EPA / Pass
-0.16
-0.10
Rushing Yards
117
149
Rush Attempts
20
31
Yards / Rush
5.8
4.8
EPA / Rush
+0.21
-0.02
Downs & Conversions
Raiders logo
Giants logo
1st Downs
24
16
Passing 1st downs
15
6
Rushing 1st downs
8
8
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
33%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
4
6
3rd Down Attempts
12
12
Red Zone %
17%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
1
--
Red Zone Attempts
6
2
Negative Plays
Raiders logo
Giants logo
Turnovers
3
1
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-14.66
-5.76
Sacks
1
3
Sack Yards
-10
-12
Sack EPA
-4.24
-7.86
Penalties
6
4
Penalty Yards
65
35
Penalty EPA
-4.92
-1.78

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
OAK logo
OAKRaidersFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0

Win Probability

Market59.7%
Model59.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-56
Home nfelo
1,413
Away nfelo
1,505
Home Field
+45.0
Base HFA
+40.6
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
-31.6
Surface Adj
+14.2
Time Adj
+21.8
Net QB Adjustment
-9.0
Home QB Adjustment
-1.3
Away QB Adjustment
+7.6
Market Regression
-22.1
Final Difference
-68.3
Model Spread
+3.0

Quarterbacks

D. Carr headshot

D. Carr

Proj. Value
+0.8
Team Elo Adj
+7.6
Value
Ptile
12/17
-5.5
13
12/26
2.5
63
01/03
-1.1
37
09/13
3.6
79
09/19
8.7
94
09/26
0.9
61
10/04
-3.9
25
10/10
-5.4
17
10/17
4.0
80
10/24
7.2
91
D. Jones headshot

D. Jones

Proj. Value
-0.0
Team Elo Adj
-1.3
Value
Ptile
12/27
-5.0
15
01/03
-1.3
35
09/12
2.6
72
09/16
7.1
91
09/26
-0.7
47
10/03
9.8
96
10/10
-6.1
14
10/17
-10.5
3
10/24
0.2
54
11/01
-3.1
31

Team Matchup Ranks

Raiders Offense vs Giants Defense
Raiders logo
Giants logo

Total

Points / Game
18
23
Yards / Game
8
21
Passing Yards / Game
2
17
Rushing Yards / Game
28
25

EPA

EPA / Play
19
20
EPA / Pass
15
19
EPA / Rush
28
28

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
13
16
Interceptions / Game
17
13
Fumbles / Game
32
18
Turnover EPA / Game
11
13

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
22
17
4th Down Efficiency
7
29
RZ Efficiency
29
5
Giants Offense vs Raiders Defense
Giants logo
Raiders logo

Total

Points / Game
31
26
Yards / Game
31
14
Passing Yards / Game
32
11
Rushing Yards / Game
23
15

EPA

EPA / Play
31
28
EPA / Pass
31
28
EPA / Rush
24
6

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
9
11
Interceptions / Game
29
32
Fumbles / Game
25
26
Turnover EPA / Game
2
2

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
24
16
4th Down Efficiency
26
32
RZ Efficiency
32
32

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

OAK logo

Raiders

6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/17
-3
L
L
O
12/26
-1
L
W
O
01/03
1
W
L
O
09/13
6
W
W
O
09/19
9
W
W
U
09/26
3
W
L
O
10/04
-14
L
L
U
10/10
-11
L
L
U
10/17
10
W
W
O
10/24
11
W
W
O
NYG logo

Giants

3-7
SU
5-5
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/27
-14
L
L
U
01/03
4
W
W
U
09/12
-14
L
L
U
09/16
-1
L
W
O
09/26
-3
L
L
U
10/03
6
W
W
O
10/10
-24
L
L
O
10/17
-27
L
L
U
10/24
22
W
W
U
11/01
-3
L
W
U