OAKRaiders
3-4
14
TBD
Ford Field
70°F
026
DETLions
5-2
TBD
Ford Field
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Raiders
0
7
1
0
8
Lions
3
13
7
3
26
Spread
-7
Total
UNDER
46
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
157
486
Total Plays
45
81
Yards / Play
3.5
6.0
EPA / Play
-0.59
-0.15
Passing Yards
77
264
Comp/Att
10/21(48%)
26/37(70%)
Yards / Pass
3.7
7.1
EPA / Pass
-1.15
-0.16
Rushing Yards
80
222
Rush Attempts
18
43
Yards / Rush
4.4
5.2
EPA / Rush
+0.03
-0.16
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
12
29
Passing 1st downs
6
17
Rushing 1st downs
4
10
Penalty 1st downs
2
2
3rd Down %
11%
43%
3rd Down Conversions
1
6
3rd Down Attempts
9
14
Red Zone %
100%
20%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
1
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
3
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
0
2
Turnover EPA
-5.34
-21.62
Sacks
6
1
Sack Yards
-49
-8
Sack EPA
-12.46
-1.97
Penalties
4
5
Penalty Yards
40
55
Penalty EPA
-5.77
-5.84
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
DETLionsFavored
Opening
-7.5
Current
-7.0
Model
-7.0
Win Probability
Market72.8%
Model72.8%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+137
Home nfelo
1,579
Away nfelo
1,477
Home Field
+35.1
Base HFA
+43.2
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+15.1
Time Adj
-23.2
Net QB Adjustment
+0.8
Home QB Adjustment
+5.3
Away QB Adjustment
+4.6
Market Regression
-14.3
Final Difference
171.0
Model Spread
-7.0
Quarterbacks
J. Garoppolo
Proj. Value
-0.8
Team Elo Adj
+4.6
J. Goff
Proj. Value
+2.5
Team Elo Adj
+5.3
Team Matchup Ranks
Raiders Offense vs Lions Defense
Total
Points / Game
23
25
Yards / Game
27
23
Passing Yards / Game
32
18
Rushing Yards / Game
30
2
EPA
EPA / Play
24
23
EPA / Pass
22
28
EPA / Rush
26
10
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
20
27
Interceptions / Game
28
9
Fumbles / Game
10
29
Turnover EPA / Game
13
20
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
24
13
4th Down Efficiency
6
27
RZ Efficiency
24
30
Lions Offense vs Raiders Defense
Total
Points / Game
5
7
Yards / Game
2
14
Passing Yards / Game
3
27
Rushing Yards / Game
6
20
EPA
EPA / Play
8
5
EPA / Pass
5
9
EPA / Rush
11
12
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
10
20
Interceptions / Game
8
17
Fumbles / Game
19
21
Turnover EPA / Game
14
24
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
8
25
4th Down Efficiency
13
23
RZ Efficiency
2
27
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Raiders
3-7
SU
4-5-1
ATS
3-7
O/U
Lions
7-3
SU
7-3
ATS
5-5
O/U