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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. raiders @ lions week 8, 2023

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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OAK logo
OAKRaiders
3-4
14
TBD
Ford Field
70°F
0
26
DETLions
5-2
DET logo
TBD
Ford Field
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Raiders
0
7
1
0
8
Lions
3
13
7
3
26

Spread

DET logo
-7

Total

UNDER
46

Game Statistics

General
Raiders logo
Lions logo
Total Yards
157
486
Total Plays
45
81
Yards / Play
3.5
6.0
EPA / Play
-0.59
-0.15
Passing Yards
77
264
Comp/Att
10/21(48%)
26/37(70%)
Yards / Pass
3.7
7.1
EPA / Pass
-1.15
-0.16
Rushing Yards
80
222
Rush Attempts
18
43
Yards / Rush
4.4
5.2
EPA / Rush
+0.03
-0.16
Downs & Conversions
Raiders logo
Lions logo
1st Downs
12
29
Passing 1st downs
6
17
Rushing 1st downs
4
10
Penalty 1st downs
2
2
3rd Down %
11%
43%
3rd Down Conversions
1
6
3rd Down Attempts
9
14
Red Zone %
100%
20%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
1
5
Negative Plays
Raiders logo
Lions logo
Turnovers
1
3
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
0
2
Turnover EPA
-5.34
-21.62
Sacks
6
1
Sack Yards
-49
-8
Sack EPA
-12.46
-1.97
Penalties
4
5
Penalty Yards
40
55
Penalty EPA
-5.77
-5.84

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
DET logo
DETLionsFavored
Opening
-7.5
Current
-7.0
Model
-7.0

Win Probability

Market72.8%
Model72.8%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+143
Home nfelo
1,581
Away nfelo
1,474
Home Field
+35.1
Base HFA
+43.2
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+15.1
Time Adj
-23.2
Net QB Adjustment
+0.8
Home QB Adjustment
+5.5
Away QB Adjustment
+4.7
Market Regression
-14.3
Final Difference
171.0
Model Spread
-7.0

Quarterbacks

J. Garoppolo headshot

J. Garoppolo

Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
+4.7
Value
Ptile
10/30
3.9
80
11/13
1.7
65
11/21
5.8
88
11/27
2.3
71
12/04
-7.0
9
09/10
2.3
65
09/17
-1.9
36
09/24
-2.7
31
10/09
-2.5
32
10/15
-1.1
42
J. Goff headshot

J. Goff

Proj. Value
+2.0
Team Elo Adj
+5.5
Value
Ptile
12/24
6.0
89
01/01
4.9
84
01/08
0.9
58
09/07
-0.1
48
09/17
6.1
87
09/24
1.5
60
09/28
-1.3
41
10/08
6.0
86
10/15
5.1
82
10/22
-3.5
26

Team Matchup Ranks

Raiders Offense vs Lions Defense
Raiders logo
Lions logo

Total

Points / Game
23
25
Yards / Game
27
23
Passing Yards / Game
32
18
Rushing Yards / Game
30
2

EPA

EPA / Play
24
23
EPA / Pass
22
28
EPA / Rush
26
10

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
20
27
Interceptions / Game
28
9
Fumbles / Game
10
29
Turnover EPA / Game
13
20

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
24
13
4th Down Efficiency
6
27
RZ Efficiency
24
30
Lions Offense vs Raiders Defense
Lions logo
Raiders logo

Total

Points / Game
5
7
Yards / Game
2
14
Passing Yards / Game
3
27
Rushing Yards / Game
6
20

EPA

EPA / Play
8
5
EPA / Pass
5
9
EPA / Rush
11
12

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
10
20
Interceptions / Game
8
17
Fumbles / Game
19
21
Turnover EPA / Game
14
24

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
8
25
4th Down Efficiency
13
23
RZ Efficiency
2
27

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

OAK logo

Raiders

3-7
SU
4-5-1
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/24
-3
L
L
U
01/01
-3
L
W
O
01/07
-18
L
L
U
09/10
1
W
W
U
09/17
-28
L
L
O
09/24
-5
L
L
U
10/01
-7
L
P
U
10/09
4
W
W
U
10/15
4
W
W
U
10/22
-18
L
L
O
DET logo

Lions

7-3
SU
7-3
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/24
-14
L
L
O
01/01
31
W
W
U
01/08
4
W
W
U
09/07
1
W
W
U
09/17
-6
L
L
O
09/24
14
W
W
U
09/28
14
W
W
O
10/08
18
W
W
O
10/15
14
W
W
U
10/22
-32
L
L
O