OAKRaiders
3-12
25
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
70°F
010
NOSaints
5-10
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Raiders
3
10
3
9
25
Saints
0
10
0
0
10
Spread
-1.5
Total
UNDER
37.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
388
269
Total Plays
74
53
Yards / Play
5.2
5.1
EPA / Play
+0.06
-0.36
Passing Yards
232
188
Comp/Att
20/35(57%)
20/36(56%)
Yards / Pass
6.6
5.2
EPA / Pass
+0.28
-0.46
Rushing Yards
156
81
Rush Attempts
38
13
Yards / Rush
4.1
6.2
EPA / Rush
-0.11
+0.13
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
22
13
Passing 1st downs
14
8
Rushing 1st downs
7
4
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
56%
10%
3rd Down Conversions
10
1
3rd Down Attempts
18
10
Red Zone %
50%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
2
--
Red Zone Attempts
4
1
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
2
Interceptions
0
2
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-9.25
Sacks
1
4
Sack Yards
-10
-30
Sack EPA
-1.95
-6.16
Penalties
3
10
Penalty Yards
20
85
Penalty EPA
-2.08
-11.31
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
OAKRaidersFavored
Opening
+1.5
Current
-1.5
Model
+0.5
Win Probability
Market53.6%
Model48.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+40
Home nfelo
1,422
Away nfelo
1,369
Home Field
+66.7
Base HFA
+39.1
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+13.6
Time Adj
+14.0
Net QB Adjustment
-79.5
Home QB Adjustment
-88.7
Away QB Adjustment
-9.2
Market Regression
-11.5
Final Difference
10.8
Model Spread
-0.5
Quarterbacks
A. O'Connell
Proj. Value
-1.3
Team Elo Adj
-9.2
S. Rattler
Proj. Value
-3.8
Team Elo Adj
-88.7
Team Matchup Ranks
Raiders Offense vs Saints Defense
Total
Points / Game
29
18
Yards / Game
27
30
Passing Yards / Game
9
28
Rushing Yards / Game
32
30
EPA
EPA / Play
31
13
EPA / Pass
24
9
EPA / Rush
32
30
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
11
20
Interceptions / Game
26
12
Fumbles / Game
29
27
Turnover EPA / Game
3
7
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
30
21
4th Down Efficiency
16
10
RZ Efficiency
26
14
Saints Offense vs Raiders Defense
Total
Points / Game
24
25
Yards / Game
21
12
Passing Yards / Game
21
27
Rushing Yards / Game
15
12
EPA
EPA / Play
26
12
EPA / Pass
25
26
EPA / Rush
10
10
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
14
9
Interceptions / Game
17
22
Fumbles / Game
4
31
Turnover EPA / Game
19
5
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
28
17
4th Down Efficiency
17
31
RZ Efficiency
12
22
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Raiders
1-9
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U
Saints
3-7
SU
3-7
ATS
4-6
O/U