OAKRaiders
3-7
40
TBD
Lumen Field
44°F
8 mph
34
SEASeahawks
6-4
TBD
Lumen Field
44°F
8 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
OT
Total
Raiders
7
17
3
7
6
40
Seahawks
10
10
7
7
0
34
Spread
+4
Total
OVER
47.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
576
372
Total Plays
77
63
Yards / Play
7.5
5.9
EPA / Play
+0.15
+0.07
Passing Yards
293
307
Comp/Att
25/36(69%)
27/37(73%)
Yards / Pass
8.1
8.3
EPA / Pass
+0.38
+0.22
Rushing Yards
283
65
Rush Attempts
40
23
Yards / Rush
7.1
2.8
EPA / Rush
+0.06
-0.26
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
27
22
Passing 1st downs
14
15
Rushing 1st downs
13
6
Penalty 1st downs
--
1
3rd Down %
57%
33%
3rd Down Conversions
8
3
3rd Down Attempts
14
9
Red Zone %
50%
60%
Red Zone Conversions
2
3
Red Zone Attempts
4
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
2
Interceptions
2
1
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-9.73
-11.25
Sacks
1
3
Sack Yards
-2
-21
Sack EPA
-1.00
-3.55
Penalties
7
2
Penalty Yards
50
10
Penalty EPA
-1.54
-1.15
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
SEASeahawksFavored
Opening
-4.0
Current
-4.0
Model
-4.0
Win Probability
Market64.7%
Model64.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+39
Home nfelo
1,472
Away nfelo
1,512
Home Field
+65.8
Base HFA
+40.2
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
+11.6
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+14.1
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+13.0
Home QB Adjustment
+14.9
Away QB Adjustment
+1.9
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
105.3
Model Spread
-4.0
Quarterbacks
D. Carr
Proj. Value
+1.0
Team Elo Adj
+1.9
E. Smith
Proj. Value
+0.4
Team Elo Adj
+14.9
Team Matchup Ranks
Raiders Offense vs Seahawks Defense
Total
Points / Game
13
25
Yards / Game
12
28
Passing Yards / Game
15
23
Rushing Yards / Game
17
30
EPA
EPA / Play
13
29
EPA / Pass
14
25
EPA / Rush
13
25
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
3
9
Interceptions / Game
28
16
Fumbles / Game
1
7
Turnover EPA / Game
8
10
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
16
27
4th Down Efficiency
9
3
RZ Efficiency
26
23
Seahawks Offense vs Raiders Defense
Total
Points / Game
10
26
Yards / Game
13
27
Passing Yards / Game
8
5
Rushing Yards / Game
18
19
EPA
EPA / Play
10
25
EPA / Pass
15
30
EPA / Rush
16
19
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
22
25
Interceptions / Game
12
31
Fumbles / Game
27
25
Turnover EPA / Game
6
6
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
20
25
4th Down Efficiency
6
20
RZ Efficiency
27
31
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Raiders
3-7
SU
4-6
ATS
6-4
O/U
Seahawks
6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U