OAKRaiders
3-3
24
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
027
HOUTexans
4-3
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Raiders
7
7
7
3
24
Texans
7
3
3
14
27
Spread
+5.5
Total
UNDER
52
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
378
388
Total Plays
53
74
Yards / Play
7.1
5.2
EPA / Play
+0.19
+0.15
Passing Yards
--
258
Comp/Att
18/30(60%)
27/39(69%)
Yards / Pass
--
6.6
EPA / Pass
+0.49
+0.27
Rushing Yards
93
130
Rush Attempts
23
32
Yards / Rush
4.0
4.1
EPA / Rush
-0.12
+0.03
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
15
29
Passing 1st downs
10
17
Rushing 1st downs
5
7
Penalty 1st downs
--
5
3rd Down %
42%
43%
3rd Down Conversions
5
6
3rd Down Attempts
12
14
Red Zone %
100%
60%
Red Zone Conversions
1
3
Red Zone Attempts
1
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
--
Sacks
--
3
Sack Yards
--
-21
Sack EPA
--
-4.38
Penalties
11
7
Penalty Yards
100
50
Penalty EPA
-10.56
-4.93
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
HOUTexansFavored
Opening
-6.5
Current
-5.5
Model
-5.5
Win Probability
Market68.0%
Model68.0%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+152
Home nfelo
1,541
Away nfelo
1,438
Home Field
+42.6
Base HFA
+52.0
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-9.3
Net QB Adjustment
+6.6
Home QB Adjustment
+20.5
Away QB Adjustment
+13.9
Market Regression
-24.6
Final Difference
130.9
Model Spread
-5.5
Quarterbacks
D. Carr
Proj. Value
+1.0
Team Elo Adj
+13.9
D. Watson
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+20.5
Team Matchup Ranks
Raiders Offense vs Texans Defense
Total
Points / Game
24
23
Yards / Game
12
28
Passing Yards / Game
24
25
Rushing Yards / Game
13
24
EPA
EPA / Play
14
26
EPA / Pass
6
25
EPA / Rush
21
24
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
7
3
Interceptions / Game
7
23
Fumbles / Game
18
8
Turnover EPA / Game
15
23
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
7
31
4th Down Efficiency
7
9
RZ Efficiency
22
32
Texans Offense vs Raiders Defense
Total
Points / Game
12
24
Yards / Game
11
19
Passing Yards / Game
17
16
Rushing Yards / Game
9
6
EPA
EPA / Play
8
31
EPA / Pass
13
31
EPA / Rush
6
18
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
6
27
Interceptions / Game
18
29
Fumbles / Game
17
30
Turnover EPA / Game
18
5
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
8
26
4th Down Efficiency
18
32
RZ Efficiency
9
31
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Raiders
5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
4-5-1
O/U
Texans
5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U