LARRams
1-1
41
TBD
Levi's Stadium
68°F
13 mph
39
SF49ers
0-2
TBD
Levi's Stadium
68°F
13 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Rams
14
10
10
7
41
49ers
7
6
7
19
39
Spread
+3
Total
OVER
40.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
418
421
Total Plays
60
75
Yards / Play
7.0
5.6
EPA / Play
+0.25
+0.12
Passing Yards
--
308
Comp/Att
22/28(79%)
23/38(61%)
Yards / Pass
--
8.1
EPA / Pass
+0.80
+0.05
Rushing Yards
126
113
Rush Attempts
32
33
Yards / Rush
3.9
3.4
EPA / Rush
-0.16
+0.02
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
26
25
Passing 1st downs
14
15
Rushing 1st downs
7
7
Penalty 1st downs
5
3
3rd Down %
67%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
8
9
3rd Down Attempts
12
18
Red Zone %
71%
83%
Red Zone Conversions
5
5
Red Zone Attempts
7
6
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
3
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
1
2
Turnover EPA
-4.83
-7.06
Sacks
--
4
Sack Yards
--
-24
Sack EPA
--
-6.91
Penalties
7
10
Penalty Yards
52
55
Penalty EPA
-8.04
-11.20
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
LARRamsFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.7%
Model59.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-43
Home nfelo
1,362
Away nfelo
1,424
Home Field
+31.5
Base HFA
+57.4
Divisional Adj
-25.9
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-12.2
Home QB Adjustment
-17.4
Away QB Adjustment
-5.2
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-68.3
Model Spread
+3.0
Quarterbacks
J. Goff
Proj. Value
+2.5
Team Elo Adj
-5.2
B. Hoyer
Proj. Value
-3.7
Team Elo Adj
-17.4
Team Matchup Ranks
Rams Offense vs 49ers Defense
Total
Points / Game
3
25
Yards / Game
8
25
Passing Yards / Game
13
4
Rushing Yards / Game
7
22
EPA
EPA / Play
6
25
EPA / Pass
8
26
EPA / Rush
7
11
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
29
10
Interceptions / Game
1
25
Fumbles / Game
30
9
Turnover EPA / Game
21
15
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
10
30
4th Down Efficiency
22
32
RZ Efficiency
15
26
49ers Offense vs Rams Defense
Total
Points / Game
19
12
Yards / Game
12
17
Passing Yards / Game
11
11
Rushing Yards / Game
20
27
EPA
EPA / Play
16
7
EPA / Pass
17
5
EPA / Rush
9
26
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
6
24
Interceptions / Game
23
7
Fumbles / Game
13
3
Turnover EPA / Game
10
24
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
16
14
4th Down Efficiency
19
27
RZ Efficiency
28
24
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Rams
2-8
SU
2-8
ATS
6-4
O/U
49ers
1-9
SU
4-5-1
ATS
4-6
O/U