LARRams
6-2
42
TBD
Levi's Stadium
77°F
3 mph
26
SF49ers
6-3
TBD
Levi's Stadium
77°F
3 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Rams
14
7
7
14
42
49ers
0
7
7
12
26
Spread
-5.5
Total
OVER
49.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
401
393
Total Plays
67
61
Yards / Play
6.0
6.4
EPA / Play
+0.42
+0.14
Passing Yards
275
--
Comp/Att
24/36(67%)
33/40(83%)
Yards / Pass
7.6
--
EPA / Pass
+0.63
+0.30
Rushing Yards
126
74
Rush Attempts
30
21
Yards / Rush
4.2
3.5
EPA / Rush
+0.02
-0.19
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
31
24
Passing 1st downs
20
16
Rushing 1st downs
9
8
Penalty 1st downs
2
--
3rd Down %
56%
38%
3rd Down Conversions
5
3
3rd Down Attempts
9
8
Red Zone %
83%
80%
Red Zone Conversions
5
4
Red Zone Attempts
6
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
2
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-8.19
Sacks
1
--
Sack Yards
-5
--
Sack EPA
-1.07
--
Penalties
--
7
Penalty Yards
--
45
Penalty EPA
--
-5.66
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
LARRamsFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-5.5
Model
-5.0
Win Probability
Market68.5%
Model67.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-96
Home nfelo
1,551
Away nfelo
1,622
Home Field
+37.6
Base HFA
+41.9
Divisional Adj
-18.9
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+14.6
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-61.6
Home QB Adjustment
-38.1
Away QB Adjustment
+23.5
Market Regression
-35.2
Final Difference
-126.9
Model Spread
+5.0
Quarterbacks
J. Stafford
Proj. Value
+2.2
Team Elo Adj
+23.5
M. Jones
Proj. Value
-0.0
Team Elo Adj
-38.1
Team Matchup Ranks
Rams Offense vs 49ers Defense
Total
Points / Game
6
15
Yards / Game
8
25
Passing Yards / Game
7
6
Rushing Yards / Game
18
12
EPA
EPA / Play
9
24
EPA / Pass
3
25
EPA / Rush
27
15
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
25
25
Interceptions / Game
2
30
Fumbles / Game
24
9
Turnover EPA / Game
21
11
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
18
22
4th Down Efficiency
4
23
RZ Efficiency
8
17
49ers Offense vs Rams Defense
Total
Points / Game
15
2
Yards / Game
10
14
Passing Yards / Game
4
5
Rushing Yards / Game
27
11
EPA
EPA / Play
8
3
EPA / Pass
10
3
EPA / Rush
26
3
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
1
29
Interceptions / Game
27
3
Fumbles / Game
16
2
Turnover EPA / Game
10
29
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
3
5
4th Down Efficiency
17
13
RZ Efficiency
11
2
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Rams
7-3
SU
8-2
ATS
4-6
O/U
49ers
6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U