nfelo logo

nfelo

Live
Platform
Kalshi
$10

$10 Bonus

Receive $10 when you sign up with Kalshi prediction market

Affiliate Disclosure: Some of the links and placements on this site may be affiliate links or paid partnerships. This means nfelo may receive compensation when you click these links or sign up for a partner’s service.

Offer Disclosure: Offers are for informational purposes only. Age, location, and other restrictions may apply. nfelo does not validate offer availability. See provider for full terms.

  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. rams @ 49ers week 10, 2025

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

nfelo logo

nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

Analysis
Research and insights that power the nfelo model
About
How nfelo works

Predictions

  • Games
    Game previews and model projections
  • Confidence Pool
    Weekly confidence pool picks
  • Betting Card
    +EV NFL Sides
  • Model Performance
    Historic nfelo model performance

Teams

  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
    QB Elo, EPA, Ratings, and Stats
  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

Tools & More

  • Receiving Leaders
    Advanced stats for receivers
  • Head Coaches
    Stats and ATS Records for Coaches
  • HFA Tracker
    Home Field Advantage for every team
  • NFL Odds Calculator
    Calculate and convert betting odds
  • Cover Probability
    Calculate EV for spreads
  • Sportsbook Hold
    Calculate the hold for odds
  • Hedge Calculator
    Calculate strategy optimal hedge size
  • Parlay Payout Calculator
    Calculate parlay payouts
  • QB Passer Rating Calculator
    Calculate passer rating from stats

© 2026 nfelo. All rights reserved.

Entertainment purposes only. The information contained on nfeloapp.com is not intended to be, and shall not be construed as, gambling advice, financial advice, or any other professional advice or service. nfeloapp.com and its owners assume no responsibility for errors or omissions. Please gamble responsibly.

LAR logo
LARRams
6-2
42
TBD
Levi's Stadium
77°F
3 mph
26
SF49ers
6-3
SF logo
TBD
Levi's Stadium
77°F
3 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Rams
14
7
7
14
42
49ers
0
7
7
12
26

Spread

LAR logo
-5.5

Total

OVER
49.5

Game Statistics

General
Rams logo
49ers logo
Total Yards
401
393
Total Plays
67
61
Yards / Play
6.0
6.4
EPA / Play
+0.42
+0.14
Passing Yards
275
--
Comp/Att
24/36(67%)
33/40(83%)
Yards / Pass
7.6
--
EPA / Pass
+0.63
+0.30
Rushing Yards
126
74
Rush Attempts
30
21
Yards / Rush
4.2
3.5
EPA / Rush
+0.02
-0.19
Downs & Conversions
Rams logo
49ers logo
1st Downs
31
24
Passing 1st downs
20
16
Rushing 1st downs
9
8
Penalty 1st downs
2
--
3rd Down %
56%
38%
3rd Down Conversions
5
3
3rd Down Attempts
9
8
Red Zone %
83%
80%
Red Zone Conversions
5
4
Red Zone Attempts
6
5
Negative Plays
Rams logo
49ers logo
Turnovers
0
2
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-8.19
Sacks
1
--
Sack Yards
-5
--
Sack EPA
-1.07
--
Penalties
--
7
Penalty Yards
--
45
Penalty EPA
--
-5.66

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
LAR logo
LARRamsFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-5.5
Model
-5.0

Win Probability

Market68.5%
Model67.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-95
Home nfelo
1,551
Away nfelo
1,622
Home Field
+38.3
Base HFA
+42.6
Divisional Adj
-19.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+14.9
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-61.6
Home QB Adjustment
-38.1
Away QB Adjustment
+23.5
Market Regression
-35.1
Final Difference
-126.8
Model Spread
+5.0

Quarterbacks

J. Stafford headshot

J. Stafford

Proj. Value
+2.4
Team Elo Adj
+23.5
Value
Ptile
01/13
1.3
58
01/19
0.5
52
09/07
0.3
54
09/14
2.1
65
09/21
-1.0
43
09/28
6.3
90
10/02
8.1
95
10/12
-1.6
38
10/19
5.4
86
11/02
6.2
89
M. Jones headshot

M. Jones

Proj. Value
+0.1
Team Elo Adj
-38.1
Value
Ptile
12/22
1.0
56
12/29
0.9
55
01/05
-3.1
27
09/14
3.2
74
09/21
-0.2
50
10/02
6.3
89
10/12
-6.7
9
10/19
-4.8
18
10/26
0.7
57
11/02
1.9
63

Team Matchup Ranks

Rams Offense vs 49ers Defense
Rams logo
49ers logo

Total

Points / Game
1
13
Yards / Game
2
19
Passing Yards / Game
7
4
Rushing Yards / Game
8
6

EPA

EPA / Play
6
18
EPA / Pass
3
24
EPA / Rush
12
22

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
21
28
Interceptions / Game
7
29
Fumbles / Game
15
7
Turnover EPA / Game
14
13

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
21
15
4th Down Efficiency
5
20
RZ Efficiency
8
15
49ers Offense vs Rams Defense
49ers logo
Rams logo

Total

Points / Game
8
8
Yards / Game
7
17
Passing Yards / Game
4
10
Rushing Yards / Game
22
13

EPA

EPA / Play
5
5
EPA / Pass
4
9
EPA / Rush
22
13

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
1
30
Interceptions / Game
26
6
Fumbles / Game
15
7
Turnover EPA / Game
12
28

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
1
8
4th Down Efficiency
7
16
RZ Efficiency
2
3

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

LAR logo

Rams

7-3
SU
8-2
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
01/13
18
W
W
U
01/19
-6
L
W
O
09/07
5
W
W
U
09/14
14
W
W
O
09/21
-7
L
L
O
09/28
7
W
W
U
10/02
-3
L
L
O
10/12
14
W
W
U
10/19
28
W
W
U
11/02
24
W
W
U
SF logo

49ers

6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
01/05
-23
L
L
O
09/07
4
W
W
U
09/14
5
W
W
O
09/21
1
W
L
U
09/28
-5
L
L
O
10/02
3
W
W
O
10/12
-11
L
L
O
10/19
10
W
W
U
10/26
-11
L
L
U
11/02
10
W
W
O