LARRams
2-0
20
TBD
FirstEnergy Stadium
83°F
12 mph
13
CLEBrowns
1-1
TBD
FirstEnergy Stadium
83°F
12 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Rams
3
0
7
10
20
Browns
0
6
7
0
13
Spread
-4.5
Total
UNDER
48
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
344
270
Total Plays
64
63
Yards / Play
5.4
4.3
EPA / Play
-0.00
-0.20
Passing Yards
254
175
Comp/Att
24/38(63%)
18/36(50%)
Yards / Pass
6.7
4.9
EPA / Pass
+0.06
-0.14
Rushing Yards
90
95
Rush Attempts
24
24
Yards / Rush
3.8
4.0
EPA / Rush
+0.03
-0.24
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
20
18
Passing 1st downs
16
11
Rushing 1st downs
3
4
Penalty 1st downs
1
3
3rd Down %
43%
38%
3rd Down Conversions
6
6
3rd Down Attempts
14
16
Red Zone %
67%
25%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
1
Interceptions
2
1
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-11.52
-2.54
Sacks
2
3
Sack Yards
-14
-20
Sack EPA
-5.48
-4.31
Penalties
7
8
Penalty Yards
49
60
Penalty EPA
-6.84
-7.59
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
LARRamsFavored
Opening
-1.0
Current
-4.5
Model
-4.5
Win Probability
Market66.6%
Model66.6%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-87
Home nfelo
1,515
Away nfelo
1,626
Home Field
+26.4
Base HFA
+57.0
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-30.6
Net QB Adjustment
-2.0
Home QB Adjustment
-5.3
Away QB Adjustment
-3.3
Market Regression
-76.9
Final Difference
-119.9
Model Spread
+4.5
Quarterbacks
J. Goff
Proj. Value
+2.5
Team Elo Adj
-3.3
B. Mayfield
Proj. Value
+3.0
Team Elo Adj
-5.3
Team Matchup Ranks
Rams Offense vs Browns Defense
Total
Points / Game
10
20
Yards / Game
6
21
Passing Yards / Game
26
10
Rushing Yards / Game
26
29
EPA
EPA / Play
15
20
EPA / Pass
12
15
EPA / Rush
28
29
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
28
17
Interceptions / Game
25
10
Fumbles / Game
10
25
Turnover EPA / Game
8
16
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
16
12
4th Down Efficiency
31
4
RZ Efficiency
6
20
Browns Offense vs Rams Defense
Total
Points / Game
22
17
Yards / Game
18
14
Passing Yards / Game
14
19
Rushing Yards / Game
12
18
EPA
EPA / Play
22
10
EPA / Pass
20
12
EPA / Rush
17
16
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
13
32
Interceptions / Game
30
13
Fumbles / Game
2
12
Turnover EPA / Game
7
24
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
22
17
4th Down Efficiency
23
25
RZ Efficiency
13
30
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Rams
7-3
SU
7-3
ATS
4-6
O/U
Browns
6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
4-5-1
O/U