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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. rams @ browns week 3, 2019

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

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Research and insights that power the nfelo model
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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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LAR logo
LARRams
2-0
20
TBD
FirstEnergy Stadium
83°F
12 mph
13
CLEBrowns
1-1
CLE logo
TBD
FirstEnergy Stadium
83°F
12 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Rams
3
0
7
10
20
Browns
0
6
7
0
13

Spread

LAR logo
-4.5

Total

UNDER
48

Game Statistics

General
Rams logo
Browns logo
Total Yards
344
270
Total Plays
64
63
Yards / Play
5.4
4.3
EPA / Play
-0.00
-0.20
Passing Yards
254
175
Comp/Att
24/38(63%)
18/36(50%)
Yards / Pass
6.7
4.9
EPA / Pass
+0.06
-0.14
Rushing Yards
90
95
Rush Attempts
24
24
Yards / Rush
3.8
4.0
EPA / Rush
+0.03
-0.24
Downs & Conversions
Rams logo
Browns logo
1st Downs
20
18
Passing 1st downs
16
11
Rushing 1st downs
3
4
Penalty 1st downs
1
3
3rd Down %
43%
38%
3rd Down Conversions
6
6
3rd Down Attempts
14
16
Red Zone %
67%
25%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
4
Negative Plays
Rams logo
Browns logo
Turnovers
3
1
Interceptions
2
1
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-11.52
-2.54
Sacks
2
3
Sack Yards
-14
-20
Sack EPA
-5.48
-4.31
Penalties
7
8
Penalty Yards
49
60
Penalty EPA
-6.84
-7.59

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
LAR logo
LARRamsFavored
Opening
-1.0
Current
-4.5
Model
-4.5

Win Probability

Market66.6%
Model66.6%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-83
Home nfelo
1,519
Away nfelo
1,626
Home Field
+26.7
Base HFA
+57.6
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-30.9
Net QB Adjustment
-2.0
Home QB Adjustment
-5.3
Away QB Adjustment
-3.3
Market Regression
-78.4
Final Difference
-119.9
Model Spread
+4.5

Quarterbacks

J. Goff headshot

J. Goff

Proj. Value
+1.5
Team Elo Adj
-3.3
Value
Ptile
12/02
-5.9
13
12/09
-13.9
1
12/16
-0.1
46
12/23
3.3
71
12/30
3.9
74
01/12
-2.7
30
01/20
0.9
52
02/03
-8.1
8
09/08
-4.2
25
09/15
1.4
64
B. Mayfield headshot

B. Mayfield

Proj. Value
-0.2
Team Elo Adj
-5.3
Value
Ptile
11/04
2.4
66
11/11
5.5
83
11/25
6.4
87
12/02
2.0
62
12/09
1.4
57
12/15
-2.5
31
12/23
8.0
92
12/30
2.6
67
09/08
-7.2
11
09/16
-3.4
29

Team Matchup Ranks

Rams Offense vs Browns Defense
Rams logo
Browns logo

Total

Points / Game
10
20
Yards / Game
6
21
Passing Yards / Game
26
10
Rushing Yards / Game
26
30

EPA

EPA / Play
15
20
EPA / Pass
12
15
EPA / Rush
28
29

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
28
17
Interceptions / Game
25
10
Fumbles / Game
10
25
Turnover EPA / Game
8
16

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
16
12
4th Down Efficiency
31
4
RZ Efficiency
6
25
Browns Offense vs Rams Defense
Browns logo
Rams logo

Total

Points / Game
22
17
Yards / Game
22
14
Passing Yards / Game
14
19
Rushing Yards / Game
12
18

EPA

EPA / Play
22
10
EPA / Pass
21
12
EPA / Rush
12
16

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
13
32
Interceptions / Game
30
13
Fumbles / Game
2
12
Turnover EPA / Game
7
24

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
22
17
4th Down Efficiency
23
25
RZ Efficiency
14
30

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

LAR logo

Rams

7-3
SU
7-3
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/02
14
W
W
U
12/09
-9
L
L
U
12/16
-7
L
L
O
12/23
22
W
W
U
12/30
16
W
W
O
01/12
8
W
W
O
01/20
3
W
W
U
02/03
-10
L
L
U
09/08
3
W
W
O
09/15
18
W
W
U
CLE logo

Browns

6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
4-5-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/04
-16
L
L
O
11/11
12
W
W
U
11/25
15
W
W
O
12/02
-16
L
L
U
12/09
6
W
W
U
12/15
1
W
W
U
12/23
8
W
L
P
12/30
-2
L
W
O
09/08
-30
L
L
O
09/16
20
W
W
U