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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. rams @ browns week 10, 2011

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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LAR logo
LARRams
1-7
13
TBD
FirstEnergy Stadium
60°F
40 mph
12
CLEBrowns
3-5
CLE logo
TBD
FirstEnergy Stadium
60°F
40 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Rams
0
10
0
3
13
Browns
3
6
3
0
12

Spread

LAR logo
+3

Total

UNDER
36.5

Game Statistics

General
Rams logo
Browns logo
Total Yards
281
335
Total Plays
58
59
Yards / Play
4.8
5.7
EPA / Play
-0.01
-0.06
Passing Yards
148
209
Comp/Att
15/25(60%)
20/27(74%)
Yards / Pass
5.9
7.7
EPA / Pass
-0.25
+0.14
Rushing Yards
133
126
Rush Attempts
32
30
Yards / Rush
4.2
4.2
EPA / Rush
+0.01
-0.18
Downs & Conversions
Rams logo
Browns logo
1st Downs
17
16
Passing 1st downs
8
9
Rushing 1st downs
8
5
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
33%
36%
3rd Down Conversions
4
5
3rd Down Attempts
12
14
Red Zone %
33%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
1
--
Red Zone Attempts
3
4
Negative Plays
Rams logo
Browns logo
Turnovers
3
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
2
0
Turnover EPA
-4.64
--
Sacks
1
2
Sack Yards
-7
-9
Sack EPA
-1.56
-2.74
Penalties
7
6
Penalty Yards
55
60
Penalty EPA
-5.11
-3.98

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
CLE logo
CLEBrownsFavored
Opening
-1.5
Current
-3.0
Model
-4.0

Win Probability

Market59.3%
Model64.5%
Spread Pick
CLE logo
Browns-3.0
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+7.0%
Cover Probability
51.8%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+146
Home nfelo
1,411
Away nfelo
1,373
Home Field
+95.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+12.0
Home QB Adjustment
-0.6
Away QB Adjustment
-12.6
Market Regression
+12.8
Final Difference
103.7
Model Spread
-4.0

Quarterbacks

S. Bradford headshot

S. Bradford

Proj. Value
-1.1
Team Elo Adj
-12.6
Value
Ptile
12/12
-4.1
23
12/19
-9.3
4
12/26
5.5
84
01/02
-8.3
6
09/11
-6.4
12
09/19
0.7
57
09/25
-6.1
13
10/02
-9.7
2
10/16
-0.4
49
11/06
-4.2
24
D. McCoy headshot

D. McCoy

Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
-0.6
Value
Ptile
12/26
-5.8
13
01/02
-8.0
7
09/11
-2.3
35
09/18
2.2
67
09/25
-1.6
39
10/02
3.0
72
10/16
-0.8
46
10/23
-7.1
9
10/30
-1.5
40
11/06
-4.5
22

Team Matchup Ranks

Rams Offense vs Browns Defense
Rams logo
Browns logo

Total

Points / Game
32
5
Yards / Game
31
10
Passing Yards / Game
21
6
Rushing Yards / Game
23
30

EPA

EPA / Play
32
18
EPA / Pass
31
12
EPA / Rush
32
24

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
17
14
Interceptions / Game
3
30
Fumbles / Game
27
4
Turnover EPA / Game
13
3

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
32
24
4th Down Efficiency
24
16
RZ Efficiency
31
3
Browns Offense vs Rams Defense
Browns logo
Rams logo

Total

Points / Game
30
25
Yards / Game
29
21
Passing Yards / Game
20
14
Rushing Yards / Game
28
31

EPA

EPA / Play
26
16
EPA / Pass
23
20
EPA / Rush
24
27

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
9
1
Interceptions / Game
9
23
Fumbles / Game
1
29
Turnover EPA / Game
27
5

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
13
18
4th Down Efficiency
7
29
RZ Efficiency
29
13

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

LAR logo

Rams

2-8
SU
2-8
ATS
4-5-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/26
8
W
W
O
01/02
-10
L
L
U
09/11
-18
L
L
P
09/19
-12
L
L
O
09/25
-30
L
L
O
10/02
-7
L
L
U
10/16
-21
L
L
U
10/23
-27
L
L
U
10/30
10
W
W
O
11/06
-6
L
L
U
CLE logo

Browns

3-7
SU
2-7-1
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/26
-10
L
L
U
01/02
-32
L
L
O
09/11
-10
L
L
O
09/18
8
W
W
O
09/25
1
W
W
U
10/02
-18
L
L
O
10/16
-7
L
L
U
10/23
3
W
P
U
10/30
-10
L
L
U
11/06
-18
L
L
U