LARRams
1-7
13
TBD
FirstEnergy Stadium
60°F
40 mph
12
CLEBrowns
3-5
TBD
FirstEnergy Stadium
60°F
40 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Rams
0
10
0
3
13
Browns
3
6
3
0
12
Spread
+3
Total
UNDER
36.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
281
335
Total Plays
58
59
Yards / Play
4.8
5.7
EPA / Play
-0.01
-0.06
Passing Yards
148
209
Comp/Att
15/25(60%)
20/27(74%)
Yards / Pass
5.9
7.7
EPA / Pass
-0.25
+0.14
Rushing Yards
133
126
Rush Attempts
32
30
Yards / Rush
4.2
4.2
EPA / Rush
+0.01
-0.18
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
17
16
Passing 1st downs
8
9
Rushing 1st downs
8
5
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
33%
36%
3rd Down Conversions
4
5
3rd Down Attempts
12
14
Red Zone %
33%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
1
--
Red Zone Attempts
3
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
2
0
Turnover EPA
-4.64
--
Sacks
1
2
Sack Yards
-7
-9
Sack EPA
-1.56
-2.74
Penalties
7
6
Penalty Yards
55
60
Penalty EPA
-5.11
-3.98
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
CLEBrownsFavored
Opening
-1.5
Current
-3.0
Model
-4.5
Win Probability
Market59.3%
Model65.5%
Spread Pick
Browns-3.0
Expected Value
+9.5%
Cover Probability
53.4%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+153
Home nfelo
1,413
Away nfelo
1,367
Home Field
+95.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+12.0
Home QB Adjustment
-0.6
Away QB Adjustment
-12.6
Market Regression
+17.0
Final Difference
111.5
Model Spread
-4.5
Quarterbacks
S. Bradford
Proj. Value
-1.1
Team Elo Adj
-12.6
D. McCoy
Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
-0.6
Team Matchup Ranks
Rams Offense vs Browns Defense
Total
Points / Game
32
5
Yards / Game
31
10
Passing Yards / Game
21
6
Rushing Yards / Game
23
30
EPA
EPA / Play
32
18
EPA / Pass
31
12
EPA / Rush
32
24
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
17
14
Interceptions / Game
3
30
Fumbles / Game
27
4
Turnover EPA / Game
13
3
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
32
24
4th Down Efficiency
24
16
RZ Efficiency
31
3
Browns Offense vs Rams Defense
Total
Points / Game
30
25
Yards / Game
29
21
Passing Yards / Game
20
14
Rushing Yards / Game
28
31
EPA
EPA / Play
26
16
EPA / Pass
23
20
EPA / Rush
24
27
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
9
1
Interceptions / Game
9
23
Fumbles / Game
1
29
Turnover EPA / Game
27
5
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
13
18
4th Down Efficiency
7
29
RZ Efficiency
29
13
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Rams
2-8
SU
2-8
ATS
4-5-1
O/U
Browns
3-7
SU
2-7-1
ATS
4-6
O/U