LARRams
0-1
10
TBD
State Farm Stadium
70°F
041
ARICardinals
0-1
TBD
State Farm Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Rams
0
3
7
0
10
Cardinals
14
10
10
7
41
Spread
+1
Total
OVER
47.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
245
489
Total Plays
52
62
Yards / Play
4.7
7.9
EPA / Play
-0.18
+0.41
Passing Yards
192
258
Comp/Att
19/27(70%)
17/21(81%)
Yards / Pass
7.1
12.3
EPA / Pass
-0.41
+0.86
Rushing Yards
53
231
Rush Attempts
20
40
Yards / Rush
2.6
5.8
EPA / Rush
-0.13
+0.09
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
14
24
Passing 1st downs
9
9
Rushing 1st downs
4
14
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
18%
64%
3rd Down Conversions
2
7
3rd Down Attempts
11
11
Red Zone %
33%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
1
3
Red Zone Attempts
3
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-5.10
-5.84
Sacks
5
1
Sack Yards
-24
-8
Sack EPA
-13.32
-1.77
Penalties
2
5
Penalty Yards
--
52
Penalty EPA
--
+1.47
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
LARRamsFavored
Opening
+1.5
Current
-1.0
Model
-1.0
Win Probability
Market52.3%
Model52.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-33
Home nfelo
1,451
Away nfelo
1,548
Home Field
+50.4
Base HFA
+46.8
Divisional Adj
-21.1
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+16.3
Time Adj
+8.4
Net QB Adjustment
+13.7
Home QB Adjustment
+17.6
Away QB Adjustment
+3.9
Market Regression
-9.1
Final Difference
-16.0
Model Spread
+1.0
Quarterbacks
J. Stafford
Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
+3.9
K. Murray
Proj. Value
+2.4
Team Elo Adj
+17.6
Team Matchup Ranks
Rams Offense vs Cardinals Defense
Total
Points / Game
19
16
Yards / Game
14
20
Passing Yards / Game
31
8
Rushing Yards / Game
23
20
EPA
EPA / Play
14
25
EPA / Pass
12
24
EPA / Rush
27
28
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
28
28
Interceptions / Game
7
25
Fumbles / Game
11
19
Turnover EPA / Game
28
12
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
25
28
4th Down Efficiency
7
17
RZ Efficiency
25
8
Cardinals Offense vs Rams Defense
Total
Points / Game
11
15
Yards / Game
11
24
Passing Yards / Game
28
15
Rushing Yards / Game
7
28
EPA
EPA / Play
8
20
EPA / Pass
11
13
EPA / Rush
5
26
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
17
23
Interceptions / Game
11
15
Fumbles / Game
22
25
Turnover EPA / Game
20
20
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
8
18
4th Down Efficiency
27
6
RZ Efficiency
17
4
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Rams
7-3
SU
7-3
ATS
6-4
O/U
Cardinals
3-7
SU
6-4
ATS
6-4
O/U