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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. rams @ cardinals week 2, 2024

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

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Research and insights that power the nfelo model
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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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    Projected and realized opponent quality
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LAR logo
LARRams
0-1
10
TBD
State Farm Stadium
70°F
0
41
ARICardinals
0-1
ARI logo
TBD
State Farm Stadium
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Rams
0
3
7
0
10
Cardinals
14
10
10
7
41

Spread

ARI logo
+1

Total

OVER
47.5

Game Statistics

General
Rams logo
Cardinals logo
Total Yards
245
489
Total Plays
52
62
Yards / Play
4.7
7.9
EPA / Play
-0.18
+0.41
Passing Yards
192
258
Comp/Att
19/27(70%)
17/21(81%)
Yards / Pass
7.1
12.3
EPA / Pass
-0.41
+0.86
Rushing Yards
53
231
Rush Attempts
20
40
Yards / Rush
2.6
5.8
EPA / Rush
-0.13
+0.09
Downs & Conversions
Rams logo
Cardinals logo
1st Downs
14
24
Passing 1st downs
9
9
Rushing 1st downs
4
14
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
18%
64%
3rd Down Conversions
2
7
3rd Down Attempts
11
11
Red Zone %
33%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
1
3
Red Zone Attempts
3
4
Negative Plays
Rams logo
Cardinals logo
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-5.10
-5.84
Sacks
5
1
Sack Yards
-24
-8
Sack EPA
-13.32
-1.77
Penalties
2
5
Penalty Yards
--
52
Penalty EPA
--
+1.47

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
LAR logo
LARRamsFavored
Opening
+1.5
Current
-1.0
Model
-1.0

Win Probability

Market52.3%
Model52.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-31
Home nfelo
1,453
Away nfelo
1,547
Home Field
+50.2
Base HFA
+46.6
Divisional Adj
-21.1
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+16.3
Time Adj
+8.3
Net QB Adjustment
+13.7
Home QB Adjustment
+17.6
Away QB Adjustment
+3.9
Market Regression
-10.3
Final Difference
-16.0
Model Spread
+1.0

Quarterbacks

J. Stafford headshot

J. Stafford

Proj. Value
+2.3
Team Elo Adj
+3.9
Value
Ptile
10/29
-1.9
37
11/19
-3.9
25
11/26
5.8
85
12/03
7.1
91
12/10
4.4
78
12/17
1.8
62
12/21
6.4
88
12/31
-3.0
29
01/14
4.8
80
09/08
0.9
54
K. Murray headshot

K. Murray

Proj. Value
+0.9
Team Elo Adj
+17.6
Value
Ptile
12/12
-4.4
21
11/12
-1.1
43
11/19
1.7
61
11/26
0.1
49
12/03
-1.9
35
12/17
-0.8
45
12/24
2.8
69
12/31
5.5
84
01/07
4.9
81
09/08
1.6
60

Team Matchup Ranks

Rams Offense vs Cardinals Defense
Rams logo
Cardinals logo

Total

Points / Game
19
16
Yards / Game
14
20
Passing Yards / Game
31
8
Rushing Yards / Game
23
20

EPA

EPA / Play
14
25
EPA / Pass
12
24
EPA / Rush
27
28

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
28
28
Interceptions / Game
7
25
Fumbles / Game
11
19
Turnover EPA / Game
28
12

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
25
28
4th Down Efficiency
7
17
RZ Efficiency
25
8
Cardinals Offense vs Rams Defense
Cardinals logo
Rams logo

Total

Points / Game
11
15
Yards / Game
11
25
Passing Yards / Game
28
15
Rushing Yards / Game
7
28

EPA

EPA / Play
8
20
EPA / Pass
11
13
EPA / Rush
5
26

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
17
23
Interceptions / Game
11
15
Fumbles / Game
22
25
Turnover EPA / Game
20
20

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
8
18
4th Down Efficiency
27
6
RZ Efficiency
17
4

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

LAR logo

Rams

7-3
SU
7-3
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/19
1
W
L
U
11/26
23
W
W
O
12/03
17
W
W
O
12/10
-6
L
W
O
12/17
8
W
W
U
12/21
8
W
W
O
12/31
1
W
L
O
01/07
1
W
W
O
01/14
-1
L
W
U
09/08
-6
L
L
U
ARI logo

Cardinals

3-7
SU
6-4
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/05
-27
L
L
U
11/12
2
W
W
O
11/19
-5
L
W
U
11/26
-23
L
L
O
12/03
14
W
W
U
12/17
-16
L
L
O
12/24
-11
L
L
O
12/31
4
W
W
O
01/07
-1
L
W
U
09/08
-6
L
W
O