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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. rams @ cardinals week 4, 2015

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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LAR logo
LARRams
1-2
24
TBD
State Farm Stadium
70°F
0
22
ARICardinals
3-0
ARI logo
TBD
State Farm Stadium
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Rams
7
3
7
7
24
Cardinals
3
6
3
10
22

Spread

LAR logo
+7

Total

OVER
43.5

Game Statistics

General
Rams logo
Cardinals logo
Total Yards
328
447
Total Plays
51
71
Yards / Play
6.4
6.3
EPA / Play
+0.01
-0.04
Passing Yards
164
334
Comp/Att
16/24(67%)
29/46(63%)
Yards / Pass
6.8
7.3
EPA / Pass
+0.18
-0.01
Rushing Yards
164
113
Rush Attempts
26
21
Yards / Rush
6.3
5.4
EPA / Rush
-0.05
+0.01
Downs & Conversions
Rams logo
Cardinals logo
1st Downs
13
26
Passing 1st downs
7
17
Rushing 1st downs
6
7
Penalty 1st downs
--
2
3rd Down %
38%
18%
3rd Down Conversions
5
2
3rd Down Attempts
13
11
Red Zone %
60%
20%
Red Zone Conversions
3
1
Red Zone Attempts
5
5
Negative Plays
Rams logo
Cardinals logo
Turnovers
0
3
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
2
Turnover EPA
--
-12.92
Sacks
1
4
Sack Yards
-7
-18
Sack EPA
-2.56
-5.36
Penalties
7
3
Penalty Yards
66
20
Penalty EPA
-6.64
-1.59

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
ARI logo
ARICardinalsFavored
Opening
-6.5
Current
-7.0
Model
-7.0

Win Probability

Market72.8%
Model72.8%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+141
Home nfelo
1,562
Away nfelo
1,503
Home Field
+67.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+14.9
Home QB Adjustment
+22.7
Away QB Adjustment
+7.8
Market Regression
+15.5
Final Difference
171.0
Model Spread
-7.0

Quarterbacks

N. Foles headshot

N. Foles

Proj. Value
-2.6
Team Elo Adj
+7.8
Value
Ptile
09/15
2.7
70
09/21
9.3
95
09/28
-7.8
8
10/05
2.2
67
10/12
-0.2
48
10/26
4.3
79
11/02
-5.0
19
09/13
5.3
83
09/20
-3.6
24
09/27
-4.3
19
C. Palmer headshot

C. Palmer

Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
+22.7
Value
Ptile
12/29
5.0
83
09/08
5.3
83
10/12
2.1
66
10/19
1.1
58
10/26
3.0
71
11/02
0.6
54
11/09
-4.0
26
09/13
6.9
90
09/20
2.9
72
09/27
2.7
70

Team Matchup Ranks

Rams Offense vs Cardinals Defense
Rams logo
Cardinals logo

Total

Points / Game
29
13
Yards / Game
32
7
Passing Yards / Game
32
27
Rushing Yards / Game
7
8

EPA

EPA / Play
32
11
EPA / Pass
32
8
EPA / Rush
24
4

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
22
27
Interceptions / Game
10
4
Fumbles / Game
15
8
Turnover EPA / Game
21
29

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
32
12
4th Down Efficiency
31
12
RZ Efficiency
21
15
Cardinals Offense vs Rams Defense
Cardinals logo
Rams logo

Total

Points / Game
2
12
Yards / Game
2
23
Passing Yards / Game
2
18
Rushing Yards / Game
12
21

EPA

EPA / Play
2
6
EPA / Pass
3
10
EPA / Rush
11
5

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
10
32
Interceptions / Game
23
17
Fumbles / Game
28
5
Turnover EPA / Game
11
25

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
4
6
4th Down Efficiency
6
3
RZ Efficiency
10
2

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

LAR logo

Rams

4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/16
15
W
W
U
11/23
-3
L
W
O
11/30
52
W
W
O
12/07
24
W
W
U
12/11
-6
L
L
U
12/21
-10
L
L
O
12/28
-14
L
L
U
09/13
3
W
W
O
09/20
-14
L
L
U
09/27
-6
L
L
U
ARI logo

Cardinals

5-5
SU
6-4
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/23
-16
L
L
U
11/30
-11
L
L
O
12/07
3
W
W
U
12/11
6
W
W
U
12/21
-29
L
L
O
12/28
-3
L
W
U
01/03
-11
L
L
O
09/13
12
W
W
O
09/20
25
W
W
O
09/27
40
W
W
O