LARRams
1-2
24
TBD
State Farm Stadium
70°F
022
ARICardinals
3-0
TBD
State Farm Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Rams
7
3
7
7
24
Cardinals
3
6
3
10
22
Spread
+7
Total
OVER
43.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
328
447
Total Plays
51
71
Yards / Play
6.4
6.3
EPA / Play
+0.01
-0.04
Passing Yards
164
334
Comp/Att
16/24(67%)
29/46(63%)
Yards / Pass
6.8
7.3
EPA / Pass
+0.18
-0.01
Rushing Yards
164
113
Rush Attempts
26
21
Yards / Rush
6.3
5.4
EPA / Rush
-0.05
+0.01
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
13
26
Passing 1st downs
7
17
Rushing 1st downs
6
7
Penalty 1st downs
--
2
3rd Down %
38%
18%
3rd Down Conversions
5
2
3rd Down Attempts
13
11
Red Zone %
60%
20%
Red Zone Conversions
3
1
Red Zone Attempts
5
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
3
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
2
Turnover EPA
--
-12.92
Sacks
1
4
Sack Yards
-7
-18
Sack EPA
-2.56
-5.36
Penalties
7
3
Penalty Yards
66
20
Penalty EPA
-6.64
-1.59
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
ARICardinalsFavored
Opening
-6.5
Current
-7.0
Model
-7.0
Win Probability
Market72.8%
Model72.8%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+144
Home nfelo
1,565
Away nfelo
1,504
Home Field
+67.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+14.9
Home QB Adjustment
+22.7
Away QB Adjustment
+7.8
Market Regression
+15.5
Final Difference
171.0
Model Spread
-7.0
Quarterbacks
N. Foles
Proj. Value
-2.6
Team Elo Adj
+7.8
C. Palmer
Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
+22.7
Team Matchup Ranks
Rams Offense vs Cardinals Defense
Total
Points / Game
29
13
Yards / Game
32
7
Passing Yards / Game
32
27
Rushing Yards / Game
7
8
EPA
EPA / Play
32
11
EPA / Pass
32
8
EPA / Rush
24
4
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
22
27
Interceptions / Game
10
4
Fumbles / Game
15
8
Turnover EPA / Game
21
29
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
32
12
4th Down Efficiency
31
12
RZ Efficiency
21
15
Cardinals Offense vs Rams Defense
Total
Points / Game
2
12
Yards / Game
2
23
Passing Yards / Game
2
18
Rushing Yards / Game
12
21
EPA
EPA / Play
2
6
EPA / Pass
3
10
EPA / Rush
11
5
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
10
32
Interceptions / Game
23
17
Fumbles / Game
28
5
Turnover EPA / Game
11
25
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
4
6
4th Down Efficiency
6
3
RZ Efficiency
10
2
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Rams
4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
4-6
O/U
Cardinals
5-5
SU
6-4
ATS
6-4
O/U