LARRams
4-2
35
TBD
TIAA Bank Stadium
59°F
9 mph
7
JAXJaguars
4-2
TBD
TIAA Bank Stadium
59°F
9 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Rams
14
7
0
14
35
Jaguars
0
0
0
7
7
Spread
-3
Total
UNDER
44.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
271
358
Total Plays
62
74
Yards / Play
4.4
4.8
EPA / Play
+0.34
-0.14
Passing Yards
--
264
Comp/Att
21/33(64%)
23/48(48%)
Yards / Pass
--
5.5
EPA / Pass
+0.27
-0.29
Rushing Yards
89
94
Rush Attempts
29
19
Yards / Rush
3.1
4.9
EPA / Rush
-0.06
+0.11
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
25
21
Passing 1st downs
14
13
Rushing 1st downs
4
5
Penalty 1st downs
7
3
3rd Down %
20%
20%
3rd Down Conversions
2
3
3rd Down Attempts
10
15
Red Zone %
100%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
4
--
Red Zone Attempts
4
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
--
Sacks
--
7
Sack Yards
--
-32
Sack EPA
--
-8.98
Penalties
5
12
Penalty Yards
45
102
Penalty EPA
-5.04
-13.31
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
LARRamsFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.7%
Model59.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-111
Home nfelo
1,468
Away nfelo
1,601
Home Field
+36.2
Base HFA
--
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+14.3
Time Adj
+21.9
Net QB Adjustment
-14.7
Home QB Adjustment
-1.7
Away QB Adjustment
+13.0
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-68.3
Model Spread
+3.0
Quarterbacks
J. Stafford
Proj. Value
+2.2
Team Elo Adj
+13.0
W. Lawrence
Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
-1.7
Team Matchup Ranks
Rams Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Total
Points / Game
6
12
Yards / Game
8
15
Passing Yards / Game
7
17
Rushing Yards / Game
18
2
EPA
EPA / Play
9
12
EPA / Pass
3
11
EPA / Rush
27
13
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
25
11
Interceptions / Game
2
2
Fumbles / Game
24
11
Turnover EPA / Game
21
30
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
18
28
4th Down Efficiency
4
7
RZ Efficiency
8
27
Jaguars Offense vs Rams Defense
Total
Points / Game
13
2
Yards / Game
20
14
Passing Yards / Game
26
5
Rushing Yards / Game
8
11
EPA
EPA / Play
17
3
EPA / Pass
24
3
EPA / Rush
4
3
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
4
29
Interceptions / Game
23
3
Fumbles / Game
3
2
Turnover EPA / Game
20
29
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
23
5
4th Down Efficiency
12
13
RZ Efficiency
19
2
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Rams
6-4
SU
7-3
ATS
5-5
O/U
Jaguars
5-5
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U