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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. rams @ panthers week 13, 2025

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

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Research and insights that power the nfelo model
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    Weekly confidence pool picks
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    +EV NFL Sides
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    Historic nfelo model performance

Teams

  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
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  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

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LAR logo
LARRams
9-2
28
TBD
Bank of America Stadium
45°F
3 mph
31
CARPanthers
6-6
CAR logo
TBD
Bank of America Stadium
45°F
3 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Rams
7
14
0
7
28
Panthers
8
3
7
7
25

Spread

CAR logo
+10

Total

OVER
45

Game Statistics

General
Rams logo
Panthers logo
Total Yards
379
358
Total Plays
51
62
Yards / Play
7.4
5.8
EPA / Play
+0.23
+0.22
Passing Yards
227
194
Comp/Att
18/28(64%)
15/20(75%)
Yards / Pass
8.1
9.7
EPA / Pass
-0.13
+0.71
Rushing Yards
152
164
Rush Attempts
21
40
Yards / Rush
7.2
4.1
EPA / Rush
+0.50
-0.01
Downs & Conversions
Rams logo
Panthers logo
1st Downs
22
17
Passing 1st downs
12
8
Rushing 1st downs
9
9
Penalty 1st downs
1
--
3rd Down %
40%
47%
3rd Down Conversions
2
7
3rd Down Attempts
5
15
Red Zone %
67%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
4
--
Red Zone Attempts
6
1
Negative Plays
Rams logo
Panthers logo
Turnovers
3
0
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-18.06
--
Sacks
2
2
Sack Yards
-16
-12
Sack EPA
-6.55
-2.23
Penalties
1
7
Penalty Yards
--
70
Penalty EPA
--
-2.65

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
LAR logo
LARRamsFavored
Opening
-10.0
Current
-10.0
Model
-9.5

Win Probability

Market80.1%
Model79.4%
Spread Pick
CAR logo
Panthers+10.0
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+3.8%
Cover Probability
50.0%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-204
Home nfelo
1,391
Away nfelo
1,654
Home Field
+82.7
Base HFA
+43.9
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+15.3
Time Adj
+23.6
Net QB Adjustment
-24.4
Home QB Adjustment
+1.8
Away QB Adjustment
+26.1
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-234.2
Model Spread
+9.5

Quarterbacks

J. Stafford headshot

J. Stafford

Proj. Value
+2.4
Team Elo Adj
+26.1
Value
Ptile
09/14
2.1
65
09/21
-1.0
43
09/28
6.3
90
10/02
8.1
95
10/12
-1.6
38
10/19
5.4
86
11/02
6.2
89
11/09
5.5
87
11/16
-0.3
47
11/23
5.0
85
B. Young headshot

B. Young

Proj. Value
-1.3
Team Elo Adj
+1.8
Value
Ptile
09/14
1.9
64
09/21
-1.8
38
09/28
-1.9
37
10/05
-4.1
23
10/12
0.9
58
10/19
-1.1
40
11/02
-6.3
11
11/09
-5.5
15
11/16
6.3
90
11/24
-5.7
14

Team Matchup Ranks

Rams Offense vs Panthers Defense
Rams logo
Panthers logo

Total

Points / Game
1
16
Yards / Game
2
15
Passing Yards / Game
7
2
Rushing Yards / Game
8
19

EPA

EPA / Play
6
23
EPA / Pass
3
23
EPA / Rush
12
26

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
21
18
Interceptions / Game
7
8
Fumbles / Game
15
19
Turnover EPA / Game
14
15

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
21
31
4th Down Efficiency
5
23
RZ Efficiency
8
13
Panthers Offense vs Rams Defense
Panthers logo
Rams logo

Total

Points / Game
27
8
Yards / Game
27
17
Passing Yards / Game
18
10
Rushing Yards / Game
11
13

EPA

EPA / Play
25
5
EPA / Pass
26
9
EPA / Rush
20
13

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
3
30
Interceptions / Game
16
6
Fumbles / Game
23
7
Turnover EPA / Game
9
28

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
23
8
4th Down Efficiency
4
16
RZ Efficiency
26
3

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

LAR logo

Rams

8-2
SU
7-3
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/14
14
W
W
O
09/21
-7
L
L
O
09/28
7
W
W
U
10/02
-3
L
L
O
10/12
14
W
W
U
10/19
28
W
W
U
11/02
24
W
W
U
11/09
16
W
W
O
11/16
2
W
L
U
11/23
27
W
W
U
CAR logo

Panthers

6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/21
30
W
W
U
09/28
-29
L
L
O
10/05
3
W
W
O
10/12
3
W
W
O
10/19
7
W
W
U
10/26
-31
L
L
O
11/02
3
W
W
U
11/09
-10
L
L
U
11/16
3
W
W
O
11/24
-11
L
L
U