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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. rams @ patriots week 11, 2024

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

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Research and insights that power the nfelo model
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    +EV NFL Sides
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    Historic nfelo model performance

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    Team Power Ratings
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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
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    Win total projections and results

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  • QB Rankings
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    QB Elo model adjusted for era

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LAR logo
LARRams
4-5
28
TBD
Gillette Stadium
59°F
9 mph
22
NEPatriots
3-7
NE logo
TBD
Gillette Stadium
59°F
9 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Rams
0
14
14
0
28
Patriots
7
3
3
9
22

Spread

LAR logo
-4

Total

OVER
42

Game Statistics

General
Rams logo
Patriots logo
Total Yards
402
382
Total Plays
51
72
Yards / Play
7.9
5.3
EPA / Play
+0.28
+0.09
Passing Yards
--
257
Comp/Att
18/27(67%)
29/39(74%)
Yards / Pass
--
6.6
EPA / Pass
+0.59
+0.28
Rushing Yards
107
125
Rush Attempts
24
30
Yards / Rush
4.5
4.2
EPA / Rush
+0.08
-0.12
Downs & Conversions
Rams logo
Patriots logo
1st Downs
19
26
Passing 1st downs
13
16
Rushing 1st downs
5
6
Penalty 1st downs
1
4
3rd Down %
25%
43%
3rd Down Conversions
2
6
3rd Down Attempts
8
14
Red Zone %
75%
40%
Red Zone Conversions
3
2
Red Zone Attempts
4
5
Negative Plays
Rams logo
Patriots logo
Turnovers
0
2
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-6.75
Sacks
--
3
Sack Yards
--
-25
Sack EPA
--
-7.05
Penalties
7
7
Penalty Yards
66
45
Penalty EPA
-7.69
-5.16

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
LAR logo
LARRamsFavored
Opening
-4.5
Current
-4.0
Model
-4.0

Win Probability

Market65.2%
Model65.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-48
Home nfelo
1,378
Away nfelo
1,506
Home Field
+63.7
Base HFA
+41.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+22.3
Net QB Adjustment
+16.8
Home QB Adjustment
+9.2
Away QB Adjustment
-7.5
Market Regression
-3.9
Final Difference
-109.1
Model Spread
+4.0

Quarterbacks

J. Stafford headshot

J. Stafford

Proj. Value
+2.3
Team Elo Adj
-7.5
Value
Ptile
01/14
4.8
80
09/08
0.9
54
09/15
-5.6
13
09/22
-1.3
39
09/29
-3.5
25
10/06
-2.1
33
10/20
-6.2
11
10/24
6.8
88
11/03
1.7
61
11/11
-2.6
31
D. Maye headshot

D. Maye

Proj. Value
+1.1
Team Elo Adj
+9.2
Value
Ptile
10/13
-1.0
41
10/20
3.2
71
10/27
-0.3
47
11/03
1.1
57
11/10
-1.0
41

Team Matchup Ranks

Rams Offense vs Patriots Defense
Rams logo
Patriots logo

Total

Points / Game
19
21
Yards / Game
14
21
Passing Yards / Game
31
1
Rushing Yards / Game
23
22

EPA

EPA / Play
14
26
EPA / Pass
12
30
EPA / Rush
27
18

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
28
6
Interceptions / Game
7
27
Fumbles / Game
11
30
Turnover EPA / Game
28
3

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
25
27
4th Down Efficiency
7
11
RZ Efficiency
25
26
Patriots Offense vs Rams Defense
Patriots logo
Rams logo

Total

Points / Game
30
15
Yards / Game
31
25
Passing Yards / Game
22
15
Rushing Yards / Game
14
28

EPA

EPA / Play
28
20
EPA / Pass
27
13
EPA / Rush
25
26

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
1
23
Interceptions / Game
11
15
Fumbles / Game
29
25
Turnover EPA / Game
9
20

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
29
18
4th Down Efficiency
14
6
RZ Efficiency
30
4

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

LAR logo

Rams

4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
01/14
-1
L
W
U
09/08
-6
L
L
U
09/15
-31
L
L
O
09/22
3
W
W
O
09/29
-6
L
L
O
10/06
-5
L
L
U
10/20
5
W
L
U
10/24
10
W
W
O
11/03
6
W
W
U
11/11
-8
L
L
U
NE logo

Patriots

3-7
SU
4-5-1
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/08
6
W
W
U
09/15
-3
L
W
O
09/19
-21
L
L
U
09/29
-17
L
L
O
10/06
-5
L
L
U
10/13
-20
L
L
O
10/20
-16
L
L
O
10/27
3
W
W
O
11/03
-3
L
P
U
11/10
16
W
W
U