LARRams
4-5
28
TBD
Gillette Stadium
59°F
9 mph
22
NEPatriots
3-7
TBD
Gillette Stadium
59°F
9 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Rams
0
14
14
0
28
Patriots
7
3
3
9
22
Spread
-4
Total
OVER
42
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
402
382
Total Plays
51
72
Yards / Play
7.9
5.3
EPA / Play
+0.28
+0.09
Passing Yards
--
257
Comp/Att
18/27(67%)
29/39(74%)
Yards / Pass
--
6.6
EPA / Pass
+0.59
+0.28
Rushing Yards
107
125
Rush Attempts
24
30
Yards / Rush
4.5
4.2
EPA / Rush
+0.08
-0.12
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
19
26
Passing 1st downs
13
16
Rushing 1st downs
5
6
Penalty 1st downs
1
4
3rd Down %
25%
43%
3rd Down Conversions
2
6
3rd Down Attempts
8
14
Red Zone %
75%
40%
Red Zone Conversions
3
2
Red Zone Attempts
4
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
2
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-6.75
Sacks
--
3
Sack Yards
--
-25
Sack EPA
--
-7.05
Penalties
7
7
Penalty Yards
66
45
Penalty EPA
-7.69
-5.16
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
LARRamsFavored
Opening
-4.5
Current
-4.0
Model
-4.0
Win Probability
Market65.2%
Model65.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-49
Home nfelo
1,378
Away nfelo
1,507
Home Field
+63.7
Base HFA
+41.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+22.3
Net QB Adjustment
+16.8
Home QB Adjustment
+9.2
Away QB Adjustment
-7.5
Market Regression
-3.7
Final Difference
-109.1
Model Spread
+4.0
Quarterbacks
J. Stafford
Proj. Value
+0.7
Team Elo Adj
-7.5
D. Maye
Proj. Value
+0.1
Team Elo Adj
+9.2
Team Matchup Ranks
Rams Offense vs Patriots Defense
Total
Points / Game
19
21
Yards / Game
14
21
Passing Yards / Game
31
1
Rushing Yards / Game
23
22
EPA
EPA / Play
14
26
EPA / Pass
12
30
EPA / Rush
27
18
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
28
6
Interceptions / Game
7
27
Fumbles / Game
11
30
Turnover EPA / Game
28
3
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
25
27
4th Down Efficiency
7
11
RZ Efficiency
25
26
Patriots Offense vs Rams Defense
Total
Points / Game
30
15
Yards / Game
31
25
Passing Yards / Game
22
15
Rushing Yards / Game
14
28
EPA
EPA / Play
28
20
EPA / Pass
27
13
EPA / Rush
25
26
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
1
23
Interceptions / Game
11
15
Fumbles / Game
29
25
Turnover EPA / Game
9
20
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
29
18
4th Down Efficiency
14
6
RZ Efficiency
30
4
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Rams
4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
4-6
O/U
Patriots
3-7
SU
4-5-1
ATS
5-5
O/U